World dynamics as an object of modeling (for the fiftieth anniversary of the first report to the Club of Rome)

Malkov S.Yu., Korotayev A.V., Davydova O.I.
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In the last quarter of the twentieth century, the nature of global demographic and economic development began to change rapidly: the continuously accelerating growth of the main characteristics that took place over the previous two hundred years was replaced by a sharp slowdown. In the context of these changes, the role of a long-term forecast of global dynamics is increasing. At the same time, the forecast should be based not on inertial projection of past trends into future periods, but on mathematical modeling of fundamental patterns of historical development. The article presents preliminary results of research on mathematical modeling and forecasting of global demographic and economic dynamics based on this approach. The basic dynamic equations reflecting this dynamics are proposed, the modification of these equations in relation to different historical epochs is justified. For each historical epoch, based on the analysis of the corresponding system of equations, a phase portrait was determined and its features were analyzed. Based on this analysis, conclusions were drawn about the patterns of world development in the period under review.

It is shown that mathematical description of technology development is important for modeling historical dynamics. A method for describing technological dynamics is proposed, on the basis of which the corresponding mathematical equations are proposed.

Three stages of historical development are considered: the stage of agrarian society (before the beginning of the XIX century), the stage of industrial society (XIX–XX centuries) and the modern era. The proposed mathematical model shows that an agrarian society is characterized by cyclical demographic and economic dynamics, while an industrial society is characterized by an increase in demographic and economic characteristics close to hyperbolic.

The results of mathematical modeling have shown that humanity is currently moving to a fundamentally new phase of historical development. There is a slowdown in growth and the transition of human society into a new phase state, the shape of which has not yet been determined. Various options for further development are considered.

Keywords: modeling, forecasting, global processes, world development forecast
Citation in English: Malkov S.Yu., Korotayev A.V., Davydova O.I. World dynamics as an object of modeling (for the fiftieth anniversary of the first report to the Club of Rome) // Computer Research and Modeling, 2022, vol. 14, no. 6, pp. 1371-1394
Citation in English: Malkov S.Yu., Korotayev A.V., Davydova O.I. World dynamics as an object of modeling (for the fiftieth anniversary of the first report to the Club of Rome) // Computer Research and Modeling, 2022, vol. 14, no. 6, pp. 1371-1394
DOI: 10.20537/2076-7633-2022-14-6-1371-1394
URL: http://crm-en.ics.org.ru/journal/article/3282/
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License.

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