Forecasting demographic and macroeconomic indicators in a distributed global model

Makhov S.A.
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The paper present a dynamic macro model of world dynamics. The world is divided into 19 geographic regions in the model. The internal development of the regions is described by regression equations for demographic and economic indicators (Population, Gross Domestic Product, Gross Capital Formation). The bilateral trade flows from region to region describes interregional interactions and represented the trade submodel. Time, the gross product of the exporter and the gross product of the importer were used as regressors. Four types were considered: time pair regression — dependence of trade flow on time, export function — dependence of the share of trade flow in the gross product of the exporter on the gross product of the importer, import function — dependence of the share of trade flow in the gross product of the importer on the gross product of the exporter, multiple regression — dependence of trade flow on the gross products of the exporter and importer. Two types of functional dependence were used for each type: linear and log-linear, in total eight variants of the trading equation were studied. The quality of regression models is compared by the coefficient of determination. By calculations the model satisfactorily approximates the dynamics of monotonically changing indicators. The dynamics of non-monotonic trade flows is analyzed, three types of functional dependence on time are proposed for their approximation. It is shown that the number of foreign trade series can be approximated by the space of seven main components with a 10% error. The forecast of regional development and global dynamics up to 2040 is constructed.

Keywords: world dynamics, mathematical modeling, macroeconomics, foreign trade, time series, regression analysis, forecast
Citation in English: Makhov S.A. Forecasting demographic and macroeconomic indicators in a distributed global model // Computer Research and Modeling, 2023, vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 757-779
Citation in English: Makhov S.A. Forecasting demographic and macroeconomic indicators in a distributed global model // Computer Research and Modeling, 2023, vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 757-779
DOI: 10.20537/2076-7633-2023-15-3-757-779
URL: http://crm-en.ics.org.ru/journal/article/3343/
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License.

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