Sensitivity analysis and semi-analytical solution for analyzing the dynamics of coffee berry disease

Jeeva N., Dharmalingam K.M.
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Coffee berry disease (CBD), resulting from the Colletotrichum kahawae fungal pathogen, poses a severe risk to coffee crops worldwide. Focused on coffee berries, it triggers substantial economic losses in regions relying heavily on coffee cultivation. The devastating impact extends beyond agricultural losses, affecting livelihoods and trade economies. Experimental insights into coffee berry disease provide crucial information on its pathogenesis, progression, and potential mitigation strategies for control, offering valuable knowledge to safeguard the global coffee industry. In this paper, we investigated the mathematical model of coffee berry disease, with a focus on the dynamics of the coffee plant and Colletotrichum kahawae pathogen populations, categorized as susceptible, exposed, infected, pathogenic, and recovered (SEIPR) individuals. To address the system of nonlinear differential equations and obtain semi-analytical solution for the coffee berry disease model, a novel analytical approach combining the Shehu transformation, Akbari – Ganji, and Pade approximation method (SAGPM) was utilized. A comparison of analytical results with numerical simulations demonstrates that the novel SAGPM is excellent efficiency and accuracy. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis of the coffee berry disease model examines the effects of all parameters on the basic reproduction number $R_0$. Moreover, in order to examine the behavior of the model individuals, we varied some parameters in CBD. Through this analysis, we obtained valuable insights into the responses of the coffee berry disease model under various conditions and scenarios. This research offers valuable insights into the utilization of SAGPM and sensitivity analysis for analyzing epidemiological models, providing significant utility for researchers in the field.

Keywords: coffee berry disease (CBD), Colletotrichum kahawae pathogen, epidemic mathematical model, sensitivity analysis, Shehu transformation, Akbari – Ganji’s method (AGM), Pade approximation method, numerical simulation
Citation in English: Jeeva N., Dharmalingam K.M. Sensitivity analysis and semi-analytical solution for analyzing the dynamics of coffee berry disease // Computer Research and Modeling, 2024, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 731-753
Citation in English: Jeeva N., Dharmalingam K.M. Sensitivity analysis and semi-analytical solution for analyzing the dynamics of coffee berry disease // Computer Research and Modeling, 2024, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 731-753
DOI: 10.20537/2076-7633-2024-16-3-731-753
URL: http://crm-en.ics.org.ru/journal/article/3489/
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License.

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