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A model of forest insect population dynamics used to simulate of “forest-insect” interactions and for estimation of possible damages of forest stand by pests. This model represented a population as control system where the input variables characterized the influence of modifier (climatic) factors and the feedback loop describes the effect of regulatory factors (parasites, predators and population interactions). The technique of stress testing on the basis of population dynamics model proposed for assessment of the risks of forest stand damage and destruction after insect impact. The dangerous forest pest pine looper Bupalus piniarius L. considered as the object of analysis. Computer experiments were conducted to assess of outbreak risks with possible climate change in the territory of Central Siberia. Model experiments have shown that risk of insect impact on the forest is not increased significantly in condition of sufficiently moderate warming (not more than 4 °C in summer period). However, a stronger warming in the territory of Central Siberia, combined with a dry summer condition could cause a significant increase in the risk of pine looper outbreaks.

The different types of the reduced equations are known in the dynamics a heavy rigid body with a fixed point. Since the Euler−Poisson’s equations admit the three first integrals, then for the first approach the obtaining new forms of equations are usually based on these integrals. The system of six scalar equations can be transformed to a third-order system with them. However, in indicated approach the reduced system will have a feature as in the form of radical expressions a relatively the components of the angular velocity vector. This fact prevents the effective the effective application of numerical and asymptotic methods of solutions research. In the second approach the different types of variables in a problem are used: Euler’s angles, Hamilton’s variables and other variables. In this approach the Euler−Poisson’s equations are reduced to either the system of second-order differential equations, or the system for which the special methods are effective. In the article the method of finding the reduced system based on the introduction of an auxiliary variable is applied. This variable characterizes the mixed product of the angular momentum vector, the vector of vertical and the unit vector barycentric axis of the body. The system of four differential equations, two of which are linear differential equations was obtained. This system has no analog and does not contain the features that allows to apply to it the analytical and numerical methods. Received form of equations is applied for the analysis of a special class of solutions in the case when the center of mass of the body belongs to the barycentric axis. The variant in which the sum of the squares of the two components of the angular momentum vector with respect to not barycentric axes is constant. It is proved that this variant exists only in the Steklov’s solution. The obtained form of Euler−Poisson’s equations can be used to the investigation of the conditions of existence of other classes of solutions. Certain perspectives obtained equations consists a record of all solutions for which the center of mass is on barycentric axis in the variables of this article. It allows to carry out a classification solutions of Euler−Poisson’s equations depending on the order of invariant relations. Since the equations system specified in the article has no singularities, it can be considered in computer modeling using numerical methods.

Optical systems with two-dimensional feedback demonstrate wide possibilities for studying the nucleation and development processes of dissipative structures. Feedback allows to influence the dynamics of the optical system by controlling the transformation of spatial variables performed by prisms, lenses, dynamic holograms and other devices. A nonlinear interferometer with a mirror image of a field in two-dimensional feedback is one of the simplest optical systems in which is realized the nonlocal nature of light fields.

A mathematical model of optical systems with two-dimensional feedback is a nonlinear parabolic equation with rotation transformation of a spatial variable and periodicity conditions on a circle. Such problems are investigated: bifurcation of the traveling wave type stationary structures, how the form of the solution changes as the diffusion coefficient decreases, dynamics of the solution’s stability when the bifurcation parameter leaves the critical value. For the first time as a parameter bifurcation was taken of diffusion coefficient.

The method of central manifolds and the Galerkin’s method are used in this paper. The method of central manifolds and the Galerkin’s method are used in this paper. The method of central manifolds allows to prove a theorem on the existence and form of the traveling wave type solution neighborhood of the bifurcation value. The first traveling wave born as a result of the Andronov –Hopf bifurcation in the transition of the bifurcation parameter through the сritical value. According to the central manifold theorem, the first traveling wave is born orbitally stable.

Since the above theorem gives the opportunity to explore solutions are born only in the vicinity of the critical values of the bifurcation parameter, the decision to study the dynamics of traveling waves of change during the withdrawal of the bifurcation parameter in the supercritical region, the formalism of the Galerkin method was used. In accordance with the method of the central manifold is made Galerkin’s approximation of the problem solution. As the bifurcation parameter decreases and its transition through the critical value, the zero solution of the problem loses stability in an oscillatory manner. As a result, a periodic solution of the traveling wave type branches off from the zero solution. This wave is born orbitally stable. With further reduction of the parameter and its passage through the next critical value from the zero solution, the second solution of the traveling wave type is produced as a result of the Andronov –Hopf bifurcation. This wave is born unstable with an instability index of two.

Numerical calculations have shown that the application of the Galerkin’s method leads to correct results. The results obtained are in good agreement with the results obtained by other authors and can be used to establish experiments on the study of phenomena in optical systems with feedback.

Mathematical simulation of unsteady natural convection and thermal surface radiation within a rotating square enclosure was performed. The considered domain of interest had two isothermal opposite walls subjected to constant low and high temperatures, while other walls are adiabatic. The walls were diffuse and gray. The considered cavity rotated with constant angular velocity relative to the axis that was perpendicular to the cavity and crossed the cavity in the center. Mathematical model, formulated in dimensionless transformed variables “stream function – vorticity” using the Boussinesq approximation and diathermic approach for the medium, was performed numerically using the finite difference method. The vorticity dispersion equation and energy equation were solved using locally one-dimensional Samarskii scheme. The diffusive terms were approximated by central differences, while the convective terms were approximated using monotonic Samarskii scheme. The difference equations were solved by the Thomas algorithm. The approximated Poisson equation for the stream function was solved by successive over-relaxation method. Optimal value of the relaxation parameter was found on the basis of computational experiments. Radiative heat transfer was analyzed using the net-radiation method in Poljak approach. The developed computational code was tested using the grid independence analysis and experimental and numerical results for the model problem.

Numerical analysis of unsteady natural convection and thermal surface radiation within the rotating enclosure was performed for the following parameters: Ra = 10³–10⁶, Ta = 0–10⁵, Pr = 0.7, ε = 0–0.9. All distributions were obtained for the twentieth complete revolution when one can find the periodic behavior of flow and heat transfer. As a result we revealed that at low angular velocity the convective flow can intensify but the following growth of angular velocity leads to suppression of the convective flow. The radiative Nusselt number changes weakly with the Taylor number.

A classical for nonlinear dynamics model, Brusselator, is considered, being augmented by addition of a third variable, which plays the role of a fast-diffusing inhibitor. The model is investigated in one-dimensional case in the parametric domain, where two types of diffusive instabilities of system’s homogeneous stationary state are manifested: wave instability, which leads to spontaneous formation of autowaves, and Turing instability, which leads to spontaneous formation of stationary dissipative structures, or Turing structures. It is shown that, due to the subcritical nature of Turing bifurcation, the interaction of two instabilities in this system results in spontaneous formation of stationary dissipative structures already before the passage of Turing bifurcation. In response to different perturbations of spatially uniform stationary state, different stable regimes are manifested in the vicinity of the double bifurcation point in the parametric region under study: both pure regimes, which consist of either stationary or autowave dissipative structures; and mixed regimes, in which different modes dominate in different areas of the computational space. In the considered region of the parametric space, the system is multistable and exhibits high sensitivity to initial noise conditions, which leads to blurring of the boundaries between qualitatively different regimes in the parametric region. At that, even in the area of dominance of mixed modes with prevalence of Turing structures, the establishment of a pure autowave regime has significant probability. In the case of stable mixed regimes, a sufficiently strong local perturbation in the area of the computational space, where autowave mode is manifested, can initiate local formation of new stationary dissipative structures. Local perturbation of the stationary homogeneous state in the parametric region under investidation leads to a qualitatively similar map of established modes, the zone of dominance of pure autowave regimes being expanded with the increase of local perturbation amplitude. In two-dimensional case, mixed regimes turn out to be only transient — upon the appearance of localized Turing structures under the influence of wave regime, they eventually occupy all available space.

The purpose of the paper is a research of a 2nd order finite difference scheme based on the Z-scheme. This research is the numerical solution of several two-dimensional differential equations simulated the incompressible medium convection.

One of real tasks for similar equations solution is the numerical simulating of strongly non-stationary midscale processes in the Earth ionosphere. Because convection processes in ionospheric plasma are controlled by magnetic field, the plasma incompressibility condition is supposed across the magnetic field. For the same reason, there can be rather high velocities of heat and mass convection along the magnetic field.

Ionospheric simulation relevant task is the research of plasma instability of various scales which started in polar and equatorial regions first of all. At the same time the mid-scale irregularities having characteristic sizes 1–50 km create conditions for development of the small-scale instabilities. The last lead to the F-spread phenomenon which significantly influences the accuracy of positioning satellite systems work and also other space and ground-based radio-electronic systems.

The difference schemes used for simultaneous simulating of such multi-scale processes must to have high resolution. Besides, these difference schemes must to be high resolution on the one hand and monotonic on the other hand. The fact that instabilities strengthen errors of difference schemes, especially they strengthen errors of dispersion type is the reason of such contradictory requirements. The similar swing of errors usually results to nonphysical results at the numerical solution.

At the numerical solution of three-dimensional mathematical models of ionospheric plasma are used the following scheme of splitting on physical processes: the first step of splitting carries out convection along, the second step of splitting carries out convection across. The 2nd order finite difference scheme investigated in the paper solves approximately convection across equations. This scheme is constructed by a monotonized nonlinear procedure on base of the Z-scheme which is one of 2nd order schemes. At this monotonized procedure a nonlinear correction with so-called “oblique differences” is used. “Oblique differences” contain the grid nodes relating to different layers of time.

The researches were conducted for two cases. In the simulating field components of the convection vector had: 1) the constant sign; 2) the variable sign. Dissipative and dispersive characteristics of the scheme for different types of the limiting functions are in number received.

The results of the numerical experiments allow to draw the following conclusions.

1. For the discontinuous initial profile the best properties were shown by the SuperBee limiter.

2. For the continuous initial profile with the big spatial steps the SuperBee limiter is better, and at the small steps the Koren limiter is better.

3. For the smooth initial profile the best results were shown by the Koren limiter.

4. The smooth F limiter showed the results similar to Koren limiter.

5. Limiters of different type leave dispersive errors, at the same time dependences of dispersive errors on the scheme parameters have big variability and depend on the scheme parameters difficulty.

6. The monotony of the considered differential scheme is in number confirmed in all calculations. The property of variation non-increase for all specified functions limiters is in number confirmed for the onedimensional equation.

7. The constructed differential scheme at the steps on time which are not exceeding the Courant's step is monotonous and shows good exactness characteristics for different types solutions. At excess of the Courant's step the scheme remains steady, but becomes unsuitable for instability problems as monotony conditions not satisfied in this case.

The paper studies a multidimensional convection-diffusion equation with variable coefficients and a nonclassical boundary condition. Two cases are considered: in the first case, the first boundary condition contains the integral of the unknown function with respect to the integration variable $x_\alpha^{}$, and in the second case, the integral of the unknown function with respect to the integration variable $\tau$, denoting the memory effect. Similar problems arise when studying the transport of impurities along the riverbed. For an approximate solution of the problem posed, a locally one-dimensional difference scheme by A.A. Samarskii with order of approximation $O(h^2+\tau)$. In view of the fact that the equation contains the first derivative of the unknown function with respect to the spatial variable $x_\alpha^{}$, the wellknown method proposed by A.A. Samarskii in constructing a monotonic scheme of the second order of accuracy in $h_\alpha^{}$ for a general parabolic type equation containing one-sided derivatives taking into account the sign of $r_\alpha^{}(x,t)$. To increase the boundary conditions of the third kind to the second order of accuracy in $h_\alpha^{}$, we used the equation, on the assumption that it is also valid at the boundaries. The study of the uniqueness and stability of the solution was carried out using the method of energy inequalities. A priori estimates are obtained for the solution of the difference problem in the $L_2^{}$-norm, which implies the uniqueness of the solution, the continuous and uniform dependence of the solution of the difference problem on the input data, and the convergence of the solution of the locally onedimensional difference scheme to the solution of the original differential problem in the $L_2^{}$-norm with speed equal to the order of approximation of the difference scheme. For a two-dimensional problem, a numerical solution algorithm is constructed.

A nonlinear oscillatory system described by ordinary differential equations with variable coefficients is considered, in which terms that are linearly dependent on coordinates, velocities and accelerations are explicitly distinguished; nonlinear terms are written as implicit functions of these variables. For the numerical solution of the initial problem described by such a system of differential equations, the one-step Galerkin method is used. At the integration step, unknown functions are represented as a sum of linear functions satisfying the initial conditions and several given correction functions in the form of polynomials of the second and higher degrees with unknown coefficients. The differential equations at the step are satisfied approximately by the Galerkin method on a system of corrective functions. Algebraic equations with nonlinear terms are obtained, which are solved by iteration at each step. From the solution at the end of each step, the initial conditions for the next step are determined.

The corrective functions are taken the same for all steps. In general, 4 or 5 correction functions are used for calculations over long time intervals: in the first set — basic power functions from the 2nd to the 4th or 5th degrees; in the second set — orthogonal power polynomials formed from basic functions; in the third set — special linear-independent polynomials with finite conditions that simplify the “docking” of solutions in the following steps.

Using two examples of calculating nonlinear oscillations of systems with one and two degrees of freedom, numerical studies of the accuracy of the numerical solution of initial problems at various time intervals using the Galerkin method using the specified sets of power-law correction functions are performed. The results obtained by the Galerkin method and the Adams and Runge –Kutta methods of the fourth order are compared. It is shown that the Galerkin method can obtain reliable results at significantly longer time intervals than the Adams and Runge – Kutta methods.

An important role in the construction of mathematical models of dynamic systems is played by inverse problems, which in particular include the problem of parametric identification. Unlike classical models that operate with point values, interval models give upper and lower boundaries on the quantities under study. The paper considers an interpolation approach to solving interval problems of parametric identification of dynamic systems for the case when experimental data are represented by external interval estimates. The purpose of the proposed approach is to find such an interval estimate of the model parameters, in which the external interval estimate of the solution of the direct modeling problem would contain experimental data or minimize the deviation from them. The approach is based on the adaptive interpolation algorithm for modeling dynamic systems with interval uncertainties, which makes it possible to explicitly obtain the dependence of phase variables on system parameters. The task of minimizing the distance between the experimental data and the model solution in the space of interval boundaries of the model parameters is formulated. An expression for the gradient of the objectivet function is obtained. On a representative set of tasks, the effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated.