Combining the agent approach and the general equilibrium approach to analyze the influence of the shadow sector on the Russian economy

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This article discusses the influence of the shadow, informal and household sectors on the dynamics of a stochastic model with heterogeneous (heterogeneous) agents. The study uses the integration of the general equilibrium approach to explain the behavior of demand, supply and prices in an economy with several interacting markets, and a multi-agent approach. The analyzed model describes an economy with aggregated uncertainty and with an infinite number of heterogeneous agents (households). The source of heterogeneity is the idiosyncratic income shocks of agents in the legal and shadow sectors of the economy. In the analysis, an algorithm is used to approximate the dynamics of the distribution function of the capital stocks of individual agents — the dynamics of its first and second moments. The synthesis of the agent approach and the general equilibrium approach is carried out using computer implementation of the recursive feedback between microagents and macroenvironment. The behavior of the impulse response functions of the main variables of the model confirms the positive influence of the shadow economy (below a certain limit) on minimizing the rate of decline in economic indicators during recessions, especially for developing economies. The scientific novelty of the study is the combination of a multi-agent approach and a general equilibrium approach for modeling macroeconomic processes at the regional and national levels. Further research prospects may be associated with the use of more detailed general equilibrium models, which allow, in particular, to describe the behavior of heterogeneous groups of agents in the entrepreneurial sector of the economy.

Keywords: heterogeneous agents, expectations, idiosyncratic shocks, aggregate uncertainty, shadow economy, informal economy, legal sector of the economy, household sector, Bayesian method, general economic equilibrium
Citation in English: Serkov L.A., Krasnykh S.S. Combining the agent approach and the general equilibrium approach to analyze the influence of the shadow sector on the Russian economy // Computer Research and Modeling, 2020, vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 669-684
Citation in English: Serkov L.A., Krasnykh S.S. Combining the agent approach and the general equilibrium approach to analyze the influence of the shadow sector on the Russian economy // Computer Research and Modeling, 2020, vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 669-684
DOI: 10.20537/2076-7633-2020-12-3-669-684

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