Modeling of the supply–demand imbalance in engineering labor market

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Nowadays the situation of supply-demand imbalances in the professionals’ labor markets causes human capital losses as far as hampers scientific and innovation development. In Russia, supply-demand imbalances in the engineering labor market are associated with deindustrialization processes and manufacturing decline, resulted in a negative public perception of the engineering profession and high rates of graduates not working within the specialty or changing their occupation.

For analysis of the supply-demand imbalances in the engineering labor market, we elaborated a macroeconomic model. The model consists of 14 blocks, including blocks for demand and supply for engineers and technicians, along with the blocks for macroeconomic indicators as industry and service sector output, capital investment. Using this model, we forecasted the perspective supply-demand imbalances in the engineering labor market in a short-term period and examined the parameters of getting supply-demand balance in the medium-term perspective.

The results obtained show that situation of more balanced supply and demand for engineering labor is possible if there is simultaneous increase in the share of investments in fixed assets of manufacturing and relative wages in industry, besides getting to balance is facilitated by a decrease of the share of graduates not working by specialty. It is worth noting that a decrease in the share of graduates not working by specialty may be affected whether by the growth of relative wages in industry and number of vacancies or by the implementation of measures aimed at improving the working conditions of the engineering workforce and increasing the attractiveness of the profession. To summarize, in the case of the simplest scenario, not considering additional measures of working conditions improvement and increasing the attractiveness of the profession, the conditions of supply-demand balance achievement implies slightly lower growth rates of investment in industry than required in scenarios that involve increasing the share of engineers and technicians working in their specialty after graduation. The latter case, where a gradual decrease in the proportion of those who do not work in engineering specialty is expected, requires, probably, higher investment costs for attracting specialists and creating new jobs, as well as additional measures to strengthen the attractiveness of the engineering profession.

Keywords: engineering and technical professionals, labor demand, labor supply, model, graduates, supply-demand imbalance, engineering workforce
Citation in English: Kochetkova E.V. Modeling of the supply–demand imbalance in engineering labor market // Computer Research and Modeling, 2021, vol. 13, no. 6, pp. 1249-1273
Citation in English: Kochetkova E.V. Modeling of the supply–demand imbalance in engineering labor market // Computer Research and Modeling, 2021, vol. 13, no. 6, pp. 1249-1273
DOI: 10.20537/2076-7633-2021-13-6-1249-1273

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