Nonextensive Tsallis statistics of contract system of prime contractors and subcontractors in defense industry

Popov A.B.
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In this work, we analyze the system of contracts made by Russian defense enterprises in the process of state defense order execution. We conclude that methods of statistical mechanics can be applied to the description of the given system. Following the original grand-canonical ensemble approach, we can create the statistical ensemble under investigation as a set of instant snapshots of indistinguishable contracts having individual values. We show that due to government regulations of contract prices the contract system can be described in terms of nonextensive Tsallis statistics. We have found that probability distributions of contract prices correspond to deformed Bose – Einstein distributions obtained using nonextensive Tsallis entropy. This conclusion is true both in the case of the whole set of contracts and in the case of the contracts made by an individual defense company as a seller.

In order to analyze how deformed Bose – Einstein distributions fit the empirical contract price distributions we compare the corresponding cumulative distribution functions. We conclude that annual distributions of individual sales which correspond to each company’s contract (order) can be used as relevant data for contract price distributions analysis. The empirical cumulative distribution functions for the individual sales ranking of Concern CSRI Elektropribor, one of the leading Russian defense companies, are analyzed for the period 2007–2021. The theoretical cumulative distribution functions, obtained using deformed Bose – Einstein distributions in the case of «rare contract gas» limit, fit well to the empirical cumulative distribution functions. The fitted values for the entropic index show that the degree of nonextensivity of the system under investigations is rather high. It is shown that the characteristic prices of distributions can be estimated by weighing the values of annual individual sales with the escort probabilities. Given that the fitted values of chemical potential are equal to zero, we suggest that «gas of contracts» can be compared to photon gas in which the number of particles is not conserved.

Keywords: econophysics, Tsallis statistics, complex systems, contract price distributions, Bose – Einstein distribution
Citation in English: Popov A.B. Nonextensive Tsallis statistics of contract system of prime contractors and subcontractors in defense industry // Computer Research and Modeling, 2022, vol. 14, no. 5, pp. 1163-1183
Citation in English: Popov A.B. Nonextensive Tsallis statistics of contract system of prime contractors and subcontractors in defense industry // Computer Research and Modeling, 2022, vol. 14, no. 5, pp. 1163-1183
DOI: 10.20537/2076-7633-2022-14-5-1163-1183
URL: http://crm-en.ics.org.ru/journal/article/3258/
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License.

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