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Regarding the dynamics of cosymmetric predator – prey systems
Computer Research and Modeling, 2017, v. 9, no. 5, pp. 799-813Views (last year): 12. Citations: 3 (RSCI).To study nonlinear effects of biological species interactions numerical-analytical approach is being developed. The approach is based on the cosymmetry theory accounting for the phenomenon of the emergence of a continuous family of solutions to differential equations where each solution can be obtained from the appropriate initial state. In problems of mathematical ecology the onset of cosymmetry is usually connected with a number of relationships between the parameters of the system. When the relationships collapse families vanish, we get a finite number of isolated solutions instead of a continuum of solutions and transient process can be long-term, dynamics taking place in a neighborhood of a family that has vanished due to cosymmetry collapse.
We consider a model for spatiotemporal competition of predators or prey with an account for directed migration, Holling type II functional response and nonlinear prey growth function permitting Alley effect. We found out the conditions on system parameters under which there is linear with respect to population densities cosymmetry. It is demonstated that cosymmetry exists for any resource function in case of heterogeneous habitat. Numerical experiment in MATLAB is applied to compute steady states and oscillatory regimes in case of spatial heterogeneity.
The dynamics of three population interactions (two predators and a prey, two prey and a predator) are considered. The onset of families of stationary distributions and limit cycle branching out of equlibria of a family that lose stability are investigated in case of homogeneous habitat. The study of the system for two prey and a predator gave a wonderful result of species coexistence. We have found out parameter regions where three families of stable solutions can be realized: coexistence of two prey in absence of a predator, stationary and oscillatory distributions of three coexisting species. Cosymmetry collapse is analyzed and long-term transient dynamics leading to solutions with the exclusion of one of prey or extinction of a predator is established in the numerical experiment.
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Model for operational optimal control of financial recourses distribution in a company
Computer Research and Modeling, 2019, v. 11, no. 2, pp. 343-358Views (last year): 33.A critical analysis of existing approaches, methods and models to solve the problem of financial resources operational management has been carried out in the article. A number of significant shortcomings of the presented models were identified, limiting the scope of their effective usage. There are a static nature of the models, probabilistic nature of financial flows are not taken into account, daily amounts of receivables and payables that significantly affect the solvency and liquidity of the company are not identified. This necessitates the development of a new model that reflects the essential properties of the planning financial flows system — stochasticity, dynamism, non-stationarity.
The model for the financial flows distribution has been developed. It bases on the principles of optimal dynamic control and provides financial resources planning ensuring an adequate level of liquidity and solvency of a company and concern initial data uncertainty. The algorithm for designing the objective cash balance, based on principles of a companies’ financial stability ensuring under changing financial constraints, is proposed.
Characteristic of the proposed model is the presentation of the cash distribution process in the form of a discrete dynamic process, for which a plan for financial resources allocation is determined, ensuring the extremum of an optimality criterion. Designing of such plan is based on the coordination of payments (cash expenses) with the cash receipts. This approach allows to synthesize different plans that differ in combinations of financial outflows, and then to select the best one according to a given criterion. The minimum total costs associated with the payment of fines for non-timely financing of expenses were taken as the optimality criterion. Restrictions in the model are the requirement to ensure the minimum allowable cash balances for the subperiods of the planning period, as well as the obligation to make payments during the planning period, taking into account the maturity of these payments. The suggested model with a high degree of efficiency allows to solve the problem of financial resources distribution under uncertainty over time and receipts, coordination of funds inflows and outflows. The practical significance of the research is in developed model application, allowing to improve the financial planning quality, to increase the management efficiency and operational efficiency of a company.
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Studying indicators of development of oligopolistic markets on the basis of operational calculus
Computer Research and Modeling, 2019, v. 11, no. 5, pp. 949-963The traditional approach to computing optimal game strategies of firms on oligopolistic markets and of indicators of such markets consists in studying linear dynamical games with quadratic criteria and solving generalized matrix Riccati equations.
The other approach proposed by the author is based on methods of operational calculus (in particular, Z-transform). This approach makes it possible to achieve economic meaningful decisions under wider field of parameter values. It characterizes by simplicity of computations and by necessary for economic analysis visibility. One of its advantages is that in many cases important for economic practice, it, in contrast to the traditional approach, provides the ability to make calculations using widespread spreadsheets, which allows to study the prospects for the development of oligopolistic markets to a wide range of professionals and consumers.
The article deals with the practical aspects of determining the optimal Nash–Cournot strategies of participants in oligopolistic markets on the basis of operational calculus, in particular the technique of computing the optimal Nash–Cournot strategies in Excel. As an illustration of the opportinities of the proposed methods of calculation, examples close to the practical problems of forecasting indicators of the markets of high-tech products are studied.
The results of calculations obtained by the author for numerous examples and real economic systems, both using the obtained relations on the basis of spreadsheets and using extended Riccati equations, are very close. In most of the considered practical problems, the deviation of the indicators calculated in accordance with the two approaches, as a rule, does not exceed 1.5–2%. The highest value of relative deviations (up to 3–5%) is observed at the beginning of the forecasting period. In typical cases, the period of relatively noticeable deviations is 3–5 moments of time. After the transition period, there is almost complete agreement of the values of the required indicators using both approaches.
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Mathematicity of physics is surprising, but it enables us to understand the laws of nature through the analysis of mathematical structures describing it. This concerns, however, only physics. The degree of the mathematization of biology is low, and attempts to mathematize it are limited to the application of mathematical methods used for the description of physical systems. When doing so, we are likely to commit an error of attributing to biological systems features that they do not have. Some argue that biology does need new mathematical methods conforming to its needs, and not known from physics. However, because of a specific complexity of biological systems, we should speak of their algorithmicity, rather than of their mathematicity. As an example of algorithmic approach one can indicate so called individual-based models used in ecology to describe population dynamics or fractal models applied to describe geometrical complexity of such biological structures as trees.
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Population waves and their bifurcations in a model “active predator – passive prey”
Computer Research and Modeling, 2020, v. 12, no. 4, pp. 831-843Our purpose is to study the spatio-temporal population wave behavior observed in the predator-prey system. It is assumed that predators move both directionally and randomly, and prey spread only diffusely. The model does not take into account demographic processes in the predator population; it’s total number is constant and is a parameter. The variables of the model are the prey and predator densities and the predator speed, which are connected by a system of three reaction – diffusion – advection equations. The system is considered on an annular range, that is the periodic conditions are set at the boundaries of the interval. We have studied the bifurcations of wave modes arising in the system when two parameters are changed — the total number of predators and their taxis acceleration coefficient.
The main research method is a numerical analysis. The spatial approximation of the problem in partial derivatives is performed by the finite difference method. Integration of the obtained system of ordinary differential equations in time is carried out by the Runge –Kutta method. The construction of the Poincare map, calculation of Lyapunov exponents, and Fourier analysis are used for a qualitative analysis of dynamic regimes.
It is shown that, population waves can arise as a result of existence of directional movement of predators. The population dynamics in the system changes qualitatively as the total predator number increases. А stationary homogeneous regime is stable at low value of parameter, then it is replaced by self-oscillations in the form of traveling waves. The waveform becomes more complicated as the bifurcation parameter increases; its complexity occurs due to an increase in the number of temporal vibrational modes. A large taxis acceleration coefficient leads to the possibility of a transition from multi-frequency to chaotic and hyperchaotic population waves. A stationary regime without preys becomes stable with a large number of predators.
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From homogeneous to inhomogeneous electronic analogue of DNA
Computer Research and Modeling, 2020, v. 12, no. 6, pp. 1397-1407In this work, the problem of constructing an electronic analogue of heterogeneous DNA is solved with the help of the methods of mathematical modeling. Electronic analogs of that type, along with other physical models of living systems, are widely used as a tool for studying the dynamic and functional properties of these systems. The solution to the problem is based on an algorithm previously developed for homogeneous (synthetic) DNA and modified in such a way that it can be used for the case of inhomogeneous (native) DNA. The algorithm includes the following steps: selection of a model that simulates the internal mobility of DNA; construction of a transformation that allows you to move from the DNA model to its electronic analogue; search for conditions that provide an analogy of DNA equations and electronic analogue equations; calculation of the parameters of the equivalent electrical circuit. To describe inhomogeneous DNA, the model was chosen that is a system of discrete nonlinear differential equations simulating the angular deviations of nitrogenous bases, and Hamiltonian corresponding to these equations. The values of the coefficients in the model equations are completely determined by the dynamic parameters of the DNA molecule, including the moments of inertia of nitrous bases, the rigidity of the sugar-phosphate chain, and the constants characterizing the interactions between complementary bases in pairs. The inhomogeneous Josephson line was used as a basis for constructing an electronic model, the equivalent circuit of which contains four types of cells: A-, T-, G-, and C-cells. Each cell, in turn, consists of three elements: capacitance, inductance, and Josephson junction. It is important that the A-, T-, G- and C-cells of the Josephson line are arranged in a specific order, which is similar to the order of the nitrogenous bases (A, T, G and C) in the DNA sequence. The transition from DNA to an electronic analog was carried out with the help of the A-transformation which made it possible to calculate the values of the capacitance, inductance, and Josephson junction in the A-cells. The parameter values for the T-, G-, and C-cells of the equivalent electrical circuit were obtained from the conditions imposed on the coefficients of the model equations and providing an analogy between DNA and the electronic model.
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Investigation of the averaged model of coked catalyst oxidative regeneration
Computer Research and Modeling, 2021, v. 13, no. 1, pp. 149-161The article is devoted to the construction and investigation of an averaged mathematical model of an aluminum-cobalt-molybdenum hydrocracking catalyst oxidative regeneration. The oxidative regeneration is an effective means of restoring the activity of the catalyst when its granules are coating with coke scurf.
The mathematical model of this process is a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations, which includes kinetic equations for reagents’ concentrations and equations for changes in the temperature of the catalyst granule and the reaction mixture as a result of isothermal reactions and heat transfer between the gas and the catalyst layer. Due to the heterogeneity of the oxidative regeneration process, some of the equations differ from the standard kinetic ones and are based on empirical data. The article discusses the scheme of chemical interaction in the regeneration process, which the material balance equations are compiled on the basis of. It reflects the direct interaction of coke and oxygen, taking into account the degree of coverage of the coke granule with carbon-hydrogen and carbon-oxygen complexes, the release of carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide during combustion, as well as the release of oxygen and hydrogen inside the catalyst granule. The change of the radius and, consequently, the surface area of coke pellets is taken into account. The adequacy of the developed averaged model is confirmed by an analysis of the dynamics of the concentrations of substances and temperature.
The article presents a numerical experiment for a mathematical model of oxidative regeneration of an aluminum-cobalt-molybdenum hydrocracking catalyst. The experiment was carried out using the Kutta–Merson method. This method belongs to the methods of the Runge–Kutta family, but is designed to solve stiff systems of ordinary differential equations. The results of a computational experiment are visualized.
The paper presents the dynamics of the concentrations of substances involved in the oxidative regeneration process. A conclusion on the adequacy of the constructed mathematical model is drawn on the basis of the correspondence of the obtained results to physicochemical laws. The heating of the catalyst granule and the release of carbon monoxide with a change in the radius of the granule for various degrees of initial coking are analyzed. There are a description of the results.
In conclusion, the main results and examples of problems which can be solved using the developed mathematical model are noted.
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Methodological approach to modeling and forecasting the impact of the spatial heterogeneity of the COVID-19 spread on the economic development of Russian regions
Computer Research and Modeling, 2021, v. 13, no. 3, pp. 629-648The article deals with the development of a methodological approach to forecasting and modeling the socioeconomic consequences of viral epidemics in conditions of heterogeneous economic development of territorial systems. The relevance of the research stems from the need for rapid mechanisms of public management and stabilization of adverse epidemiological situation, taking into account the spatial heterogeneity of the spread of COVID-19, accompanied by a concentration of infection in large metropolitan areas and territories with high economic activity. The aim of the work is to substantiate a methodology to assess the spatial heterogeneity of the spread of coronavirus infection, find poles of its growth, emerging spatial clusters and zones of their influence with the assessment of inter-territorial relationships, as well as simulate the effects of worsening epidemiological situation on the dynamics of economic development of regional systems. The peculiarity of the developed approach is the spatial clustering of regional systems by the level of COVID-19 incidence, conducted using global and local spatial autocorrelation indices, various spatial weight matrices, and L.Anselin mutual influence matrix based on the statistical information of the Russian Federal State Statistics Service. The study revealed a spatial cluster characterized by high levels of infection with COVID-19 with a strong zone of influence and stable interregional relationships with surrounding regions, as well as formed growth poles which are potential poles of further spread of coronavirus infection. Regression analysis using panel data not only confirmed the impact of COVID-19 incidence on the average number of employees in enterprises, the level of average monthly nominal wages, but also allowed to form a model for scenario prediction of the consequences of the spread of coronavirus infection. The results of this study can be used to form mechanisms to contain the coronavirus infection and stabilize socio-economic at macroeconomic and regional level and restore the economy of territorial systems, depending on the depth of the spread of infection and the level of economic damage caused.
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Physical analysis and mathematical modeling of the parameters of explosion region produced in a rarefied ionosphere
Computer Research and Modeling, 2022, v. 14, no. 4, pp. 817-833The paper presents a physical and numerical analysis of the dynamics and radiation of explosion products formed during the Russian-American experiment in the ionosphere using an explosive generator based on hexogen (RDX) and trinitrotoluene (TNT). The main attention is paid to the radiation of the perturbed region and the dynamics of the products of explosion (PE). The detailed chemical composition of the explosion products is analyzed and the initial concentrations of the most important molecules capable of emitting in the infrared range of the spectrum are determined, and their radiative constants are given. The initial temperature of the explosion products and the adiabatic exponent are determined. The nature of the interpenetration of atoms and molecules of a highly rarefied ionosphere into a spherically expanding cloud of products is analyzed. An approximate mathematical model of the dynamics of explosion products under conditions of mixing rarefied ionospheric air with them has been developed and the main thermodynamic characteristics of the system have been calculated. It is shown that for a time of 0,3–3 sec there is a significant increase in the temperature of the scattering mixture as a result of its deceleration. In the problem under consideration the explosion products and the background gas are separated by a contact boundary. To solve this two-region gas dynamic problem a numerical algorithm based on the Lagrangian approach was developed. It was necessary to fulfill special conditions at the contact boundary during its movement in a stationary gas. In this case there are certain difficulties in describing the parameters of the explosion products near the contact boundary which is associated with a large difference in the size of the mass cells of the explosion products and the background due to a density difference of 13 orders of magnitude. To reduce the calculation time of this problem an irregular calculation grid was used in the area of explosion products. Calculations were performed with different adiabatic exponents. The most important result is temperature. It is in good agreement with the results obtained by the method that approximately takes into account interpenetration. The time behavior of the IR emission coefficients of active molecules in a wide range of the spectrum is obtained. This behavior is qualitatively consistent with experiments for the IR glow of flying explosion products.
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World dynamics as an object of modeling (for the fiftieth anniversary of the first report to the Club of Rome)
Computer Research and Modeling, 2022, v. 14, no. 6, pp. 1371-1394In the last quarter of the twentieth century, the nature of global demographic and economic development began to change rapidly: the continuously accelerating growth of the main characteristics that took place over the previous two hundred years was replaced by a sharp slowdown. In the context of these changes, the role of a long-term forecast of global dynamics is increasing. At the same time, the forecast should be based not on inertial projection of past trends into future periods, but on mathematical modeling of fundamental patterns of historical development. The article presents preliminary results of research on mathematical modeling and forecasting of global demographic and economic dynamics based on this approach. The basic dynamic equations reflecting this dynamics are proposed, the modification of these equations in relation to different historical epochs is justified. For each historical epoch, based on the analysis of the corresponding system of equations, a phase portrait was determined and its features were analyzed. Based on this analysis, conclusions were drawn about the patterns of world development in the period under review.
It is shown that mathematical description of technology development is important for modeling historical dynamics. A method for describing technological dynamics is proposed, on the basis of which the corresponding mathematical equations are proposed.
Three stages of historical development are considered: the stage of agrarian society (before the beginning of the XIX century), the stage of industrial society (XIX–XX centuries) and the modern era. The proposed mathematical model shows that an agrarian society is characterized by cyclical demographic and economic dynamics, while an industrial society is characterized by an increase in demographic and economic characteristics close to hyperbolic.
The results of mathematical modeling have shown that humanity is currently moving to a fundamentally new phase of historical development. There is a slowdown in growth and the transition of human society into a new phase state, the shape of which has not yet been determined. Various options for further development are considered.
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