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An improved method of oblique rotation “oblimax” is suggested. The problem of choosing the pairs of factors is discussed. A novel sequence to select pairs of factors that lead to the best factor structure by “oblimax” is suggested.

A calculation method for boundaries of quality classes for quantitative systems characteristics of any nature is suggested. The method allows to determine interactions which are not detectable using correlation and regression analysis; quality classes’ boundaries of systems’ condition indicator and boundaries of the factors influencing this condition; contribution of the factors to a degree of «inadmissibility» of indicator values; sufficiency of the program observing the factors to describe the causes of «inadmissibility» of indicator values.

The method of calculation of the boundaries of quality classes for quantitative characteristics of systems with any properties is adapted to search for boundaries of three quality classes. In addition to other results, adaptation of the method allowed to determine boundaries between quality classes at simultaneous «unacceptability » of high and low values of indicator characteristic of the system condition and simultaneous «inadmissibility » of high and low values of factors affecting the system.

A model of forest insect population dynamics used to simulate of “forest-insect” interactions and for estimation of possible damages of forest stand by pests. This model represented a population as control system where the input variables characterized the influence of modifier (climatic) factors and the feedback loop describes the effect of regulatory factors (parasites, predators and population interactions). The technique of stress testing on the basis of population dynamics model proposed for assessment of the risks of forest stand damage and destruction after insect impact. The dangerous forest pest pine looper Bupalus piniarius L. considered as the object of analysis. Computer experiments were conducted to assess of outbreak risks with possible climate change in the territory of Central Siberia. Model experiments have shown that risk of insect impact on the forest is not increased significantly in condition of sufficiently moderate warming (not more than 4 °C in summer period). However, a stronger warming in the territory of Central Siberia, combined with a dry summer condition could cause a significant increase in the risk of pine looper outbreaks.

Efficiency of production directly depends on quality of the management of technology which, in turn, relies on the accuracy and efficiency of the processing of control and measuring information. Development of the mathematical methods of research of the system communications and regularities of functioning and creation of the mathematical models taking into account structural features of object of researches, and also writing of the software products for realization of these methods are an actual task. Practice has shown that the list of parameters that take place in the study of complex object of modern production, ranging from a few dozen to several hundred names, and the degree of influence of each factor in the initial time is not clear. Before working for the direct determination of the model in these circumstances, it is impossible — the amount of the required information may be too great, and most of the work on the collection of this information will be done in vain due to the fact that the degree of influence on the optimization of most factors of the original list would be negligible. Therefore, a necessary step in determining a model of a complex object is to work to reduce the dimension of the factor space. Most industrial plants are hierarchical group processes and mass volume production, characterized by hundreds of factors. (For an example of realization of the mathematical methods and the approbation of the constructed models data of the Moldavian steel works were taken in a basis.) To investigate the systemic linkages and patterns of functioning of such complex objects are usually chosen several informative parameters, and carried out their sampling. In this article the sequence of coercion of the initial indices of the technological process of the smelting of steel to the look suitable for creation of a mathematical model for the purpose of prediction is described. The implementations of new types became also creation of a basis for development of the system of automated management of quality of the production. In the course of weak correlation the following stages are selected: collection and the analysis of the basic data, creation of the table the correlated of the parameters, abbreviation of factor space by means of the correlative pleiads and a method of weight factors. The received results allow to optimize process of creation of the model of multiple-factor process.

The article covers several mathematical problems relating to elastic stability of thin shells in view of inconsistencies that have been recently identified between the experimental data and the predictions based on the shallow- shell theory. It is highlighted that the contradictions were caused by new algorithms that enabled updating the values of the so called “low critical stresses” calculated in the 20th century and adopted as a buckling criterion for thin shallow shells by technical standards. The new calculations often find the low critical stress close to zero. Therefore, the low critical stress cannot be used as a safety factor for the buckling analysis of the thinwalled structure, and the equations of the shallow-shell theory need to be replaced with other differential equations. The new theory also requires a buckling criterion ensuring the match between calculations and experimental data.

The article demonstrates that the contradiction with the new experiments can be resolved within the dynamic nonlinear three-dimensional theory of elasticity. The stress when bifurcation of dynamic modes occurs shall be taken as a buckling criterion. The nonlinear form of original equations causes solitary (solitonic) waves that match non-smooth displacements (patterns, dents) of the shells. It is essential that the solitons make an impact at all stages of loading and significantly increase closer to bifurcation. The solitonic solutions are illustrated based on the thin cylindrical momentless shell when its three-dimensional volume is simulated with twodimensional surface of the set thickness. It is noted that the pattern-generating waves can be detected (and their amplitudes can by identified) with acoustic or electromagnetic devices.

Thus, it is technically possible to reduce the risk of failure of the thin shells by monitoring the shape of the surface with acoustic devices. The article concludes with a setting of the mathematical problems requiring the solution for the reliable numerical assessment of the buckling criterion for thin elastic shells.

The paper is devoted to the analysis of the proximity of the population system to dangerous boundaries. An intersection of these boundaries results in the collapse of the stable coexistence of interacting populations. As a reason of such destruction one can consider random perturbations inevitably presented in any living system. This study is carried out on the example of the well-known model of interaction between predator and prey populations, taking into account both a stabilizing factor of the competition of predators for another than prey resources, and also a destabilizing saturation factor for predators. To describe the saturation of predators, we use the second type Holling trophic function. The dynamics of the system is studied as a function of the predator saturation, and the coefficient of predator competition for resources other than prey. The paper presents a parametric description of the possible dynamic regimes of the deterministic model. Here, local and global bifurcations are studied, and areas of sustainable coexistence of populations in equilibrium and the oscillation modes are described. An interesting feature of this mathematical model, firstly considered by Bazykin, is a global bifurcation of the birth of limit cycle from the separatrix loop. We study the effects of noise on the equilibrium and oscillatory regimes of coexistence of predator and prey populations. It is shown that an increase of the intensity of random disturbances can lead to significant deformations of these regimes right up to their destruction. The aim of this work is to develop a constructive probabilistic criterion for the proximity of the population stochastic system to the dangerous boundaries. The proposed approach is based on the mathematical technique of stochastic sensitivity functions, and the method of confidence domains. In the case of a stable equilibrium, this confidence domain is an ellipse. For the stable cycle, this domain is a confidence band. The size of the confidence domain is proportional to the intensity of the noise and stochastic sensitivity of the initial deterministic attractor. A geometric criterion of the exit of the population system from sustainable coexistence mode is the intersection of the confidence domain and the corresponding separatrix of the unforced deterministic model. An effectiveness of this analytical approach is confirmed by the good agreement of theoretical estimates and results of direct numerical simulations.

As part of the paper, a physical and theoretical analysis of the impact processes of various factors of a highaltitude and high-energy nuclear explosion on the asteroid in extra-atmospheric conditions of open space is done. It is shown that, in accordance with the energy and permeability of the plasma of explosion products, X-ray and gamma-neutron radiation, a layered structure with a different energy density depending on angular coordinates is formed on the surface of the asteroid. The temporal patterns of the energy transformation for each layer is clarified and the roles of various photo- and collision processes are determined. The effect of a high-speed plasma flow is erosive in nature, and the plasma pulse is transmitted to the asteroid. The paper presents that in a thin layer of x-ray absorption, the asteroid substance is heated to high temperatures and as a result of its expansion, a recoil impulse is formed, which is not decisive due to the small mass of the expanding high-temperature plasma. Calculations shows that the main impulse received by an asteroid is associated with the entrainment of a heated layer of a substance formed by a neutron flux (7.5 E 10¹⁴ g E cm/s). It is shown that an asteroid with a radius of ~100 m acquires a velocity of . 100 cm/s. The calculations were performed taking into account the explosion energy spent on the destruction of the amorphous structure of the asteroid material (~1 eV/atom = 3.8 E 10¹⁰ erg/g) and ionization in the region of the high-temperature layer. Based on a similar analysis, an approximation is obtained for estimating the average size of fragments in the event of the possible destruction of the asteroid by shock waves generated inside it under the influence of pressure impulses. A physical experiment was conducted in laboratory conditions, simulating the fragmentation of a stone asteroid and confirming the validity of the obtained dependence on the selected values of certain parameters. As a result of numerical studies of the effects of the explosion, carried out at different distances from the surface of the asteroid, it is shown that taking into account the real geometry of the spallation layer gives the optimal height for the formation of the maximum asteroid momentum by a factor of 1.5 greater than similar estimates according to the simplified model. A two-stage concept of the impact of nuclear explosions on an asteroid using radar guidance tools is proposed. The paper analyzes the possible impact of the emerging ionization interference on the radar tracking of the movement of large fragments of the asteroid in the space-time evolution of all elements of the studied dynamic system.

In this paper the problem of searching for the design of the magnetic system for creation a magnetic field with the required characteristics in the given area is solved. On the basis of analysis of the mathematical model of the magnetic system rather a general approach is proposed to the solving of the inverse problem, which is written by the Fredgolm equation H(z) = ∫_SIJ(s)G(z, s)ds, z ∈ S _H, s ∈ S _I . It was necessary to define the current density distribution function J(s) and the existing winding geometry for creation of a required magnetic field H(z). In the paper a method of solving those by means of regularized iterative processes is proposed. On the base of the concrete magnetic system we perform the numerical study of influence of different factors on the character of the magnetic field being designed.

For a non-homogeneous model transport equation with source terms, the stability analysis of a linear hybrid scheme (a combination of upwind and central approximations) is performed. Stability conditions are obtained that depend on the hybridity parameter, the source intensity factor (the product of intensity per time step), and the weight coefficient of the linear combination of source power on the lower- and upper-time layer. In a nonlinear case for the non-equilibrium by velocities and temperatures equations of gas suspension motion, the linear stability analysis was confirmed by calculation. It is established that the maximum permissible Courant number of the hybrid large-particle method of the second order of accuracy in space and time with an implicit account of friction and heat exchange between gas and particles does not depend on the intensity factor of interface interactions, the grid spacing and the relaxation times of phases (K-stability). In the traditional case of an explicit method for calculating the source terms, when a dimensionless intensity factor greater than 10, there is a catastrophic (by several orders of magnitude) decrease in the maximum permissible Courant number, in which the calculated time step becomes unacceptably small.

On the basic ratios of Riemann’s problem in the equilibrium heterogeneous medium, we obtained an asymptotically exact self-similar solution of the problem of interaction of a shock wave with a layer of gas-suspension to which converge the numerical solution of two-velocity two-temperature dynamics of gassuspension when reducing the size of dispersed particles.

The dynamics of the shock wave in gas and its interaction with a limited gas suspension layer for different sizes of dispersed particles: 0.1, 2, and 20 ìm were studied. The problem is characterized by two discontinuities decay: reflected and refracted shock waves at the left boundary of the layer, reflected rarefaction wave, and a past shock wave at the right contact edge. The influence of relaxation processes (dimensionless phase relaxation times) to the flow of a gas suspension is discussed. For small particles, the times of equalization of the velocities and temperatures of the phases are small, and the relaxation zones are sub-grid. The numerical solution at characteristic points converges with relative accuracy $O \, (10^{-4})$ to self-similar solutions.