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The article considers the problem of forecasting the number of employed and unemployed persons in a multisectoral labor market using a balance mathematical model of labor force intersectoral dynamics.

The balance mathematical model makes it possible to calculate the values of intersectoral dynamics indicators using only statistical data on sectoral employment and unemployment provided by the Federal State Statistics Service. Intersectoral dynamics indicators of labor force calculated for several years in a row are used to build trends for each of these indicators. The found trends are used to calculation of forecasted intersectoral dynamics indicators of labor force. The sectoral employment and unemployment of researched multisectoral labor market is forecasted based on values these forecasted indicators.

The proposed approach was applied to forecast the employed persons in the economic sectors of the Russian Federation in 2011–2016. The following types of trends were used to describe changes of intersectoral dynamics indicators values: linear, non-linear, constant. The procedure for selecting trends is clearly demonstrated by the example of indicators that determine the labor force movements from the “Transport and communications” sector to the “Healthcare and social services” sector, as well as from the “Public administration and military security, social security” sector to the “Education” sector.

Several approaches to forecasting was compared: a) naive forecast, within which the labor market indicators was forecasted only using a constant trend; b) forecasting based on a balance model using only a constant trend for all intersectoral dynamics indicators of labor force; c) forecasting directly by the number employed persons in economic sectors using the types of trends considered in the article; d) forecasting based on a balance model with the trends choice for each intersectoral dynamics indicators of labor force.

The article shows that the use of a balance model provides a better forecast quality compared to forecasting directly by the number of employed persons. The use of trends in intersectoral dynamics indicators improves the quality of the forecast. The article also provides analysis examples of the multisectoral labor market in the Russian Federation. Using the balance model, the following information was obtained: the labor force flows distribution outgoing from concrete sectors by sectors of the economy; the sectoral structure of the labor force flows ingoing in concrete sectors. This information is not directly contained in the data provided by the Federal State Statistics Service.

Laminar-turbulent transition is the subject of an active research related to improvement of economic efficiency of air vehicles, because in the turbulent boundary layer drag increases, which leads to higher fuel consumption. One of the directions of such research is the search for efficient methods, that can be used to find the position of the transition in space. Using this information about laminar-turbulent transition location when designing an aircraft, engineers can predict its performance and profitability at the initial stages of the project. Traditionally, $e^N$ method is applied to find the coordinates of a laminar-turbulent transition. It is a well known approach in industry. However, despite its widespread use, this method has a number of significant drawbacks, since it relies on parallel flow assumption, which limits the scenarios for its application, and also requires computationally expensive calculations in a wide range of frequencies and wave numbers. Alternatively, flow analysis can be done by using Dynamic Mode Decomposition, which allows one to analyze flow disturbances using flow data directly. Since Dynamic Mode Decomposition is a dimensionality reduction method, the number of computations can be dramatically reduced. Furthermore, usage of Dynamic Mode Decomposition expands the applicability of the whole method, due to the absence of assumptions about the parallel flow in its derivation.

The presented study proposes an approach to finding the location of a laminar-turbulent transition using the Dynamic Mode Decomposition method. The essence of this approach is to divide the boundary layer region into sets of subregions, for each of which the transition point is independently calculated, using Dynamic Mode Decomposition for flow analysis, after which the results are averaged to produce the final result. This approach is validated by laminar-turbulent transition predictions of subsonic and supersonic flows over a 2D flat plate with zero pressure gradient. The results demonstrate the fundamental applicability and high accuracy of the described method in a wide range of conditions. The study focuses on comparison with the $e^N$ method and proves the advantages of the proposed approach. It is shown that usage of Dynamic Mode Decomposition leads to significantly faster execution due to less intensive computations, while the accuracy is comparable to the such of the solution obtained with the $e^N$ method. This indicates the prospects for using the described approach in a real world applications.

This article discusses the contribution of computing resources monitoring system to the work of a distributed computing system. Method of evaluation of this contribution and performance monitoring system based on measures of certainty the state-controlled system is proposed. The application of this methodology in the design and development of local monitoring of the Central Information and Computing Complex, Joint Institute for Nuclear Research is listed.

Studies of the crisis socio-demographic situation in the Russian Far East require not only the use of traditional statistical methods, but also a conceptual analysis of possible development scenarios based on the synergy principles. The article is devoted to the analysis and modeling of the number of employed, unemployed and economically inactive population using nonlinear autonomous differential equations. We studied a basic mathematical model that takes into account the principle of pair interactions, which is a special case of the model for the struggle between conditional information of D. S. Chernavsky. The point estimates for the parameters are found using least squares method adapted for this model. The average approximation error was no more than 5.17%. The calculated parameter values correspond to the unstable focus and the oscillations with increasing amplitude of population number in the asymptotic case, which indicates a gradual increase in disparities between the employed, unemployed and economically inactive population and a collapse of their dynamics. We found that in the parametric space, not far from the inertial scenario, there are domains of blow-up and chaotic regimes complicating the ability to effectively manage. The numerical study showed that a change in only one model parameter (e.g. migration) without complex structural socio-economic changes can only delay the collapse of the dynamics in the long term or leads to the emergence of unpredictable chaotic regimes. We found an additional set of the model parameters corresponding to sustainable dynamics (stable focus) which approximates well the time series of the considered population groups. In the mathematical model, the bifurcation parameters are the outflow rate of the able-bodied population, the fertility (“rejuvenation of the population”), as well as the migration inflow rate of the unemployed. We found that the transition to stable regimes is possible with the simultaneous impact on several parameters which requires a comprehensive set of measures to consolidate the population in the Russian Far East and increase the level of income in terms of compensation for infrastructure sparseness. Further economic and sociological research is required to develop specific state policy measures.

The paper is devoted to the study of relationships between discrete and continuous models financial processes and their probabilistic characteristics. First, a connection is established between the price processes of stocks, hedging portfolio and options in the models conditioned by binomial perturbations and their limit perturbations of the Brownian motion type. Secondly, analogues in the coefficients of stochastic equations with various random processes, continuous and jumpwise, and in the coefficients corresponding deterministic equations for their probabilistic characteristics. Statement of the results on the connections and finding analogies, obtained in this paper, led to the need for an adequate presentation of preliminary information and results from financial mathematics, as well as descriptions of related objects of stochastic analysis. In this paper, partially new and known results are presented in an accessible form for those who are not specialists in financial mathematics and stochastic analysis, and for whom these results are important from the point of view of applications. Specifically, the following sections are presented.

• In one- and n-period binomial models, it is proposed a unified approach to determining on the probability space a risk-neutral measure with which the discounted option price becomes a martingale. The resulting martingale formula for the option price is suitable for numerical simulation. In the following sections, the risk-neutral measures approach is applied to study financial processes in continuous-time models.

• In continuous time, models of the price of shares, hedging portfolios and options are considered in the form of stochastic equations with the Ito integral over Brownian motion and over a compensated Poisson process. The study of the properties of these processes in this section is based on one of the central objects of stochastic analysis — the Ito formula. Special attention is given to the methods of its application.

• The famous Black – Scholes formula is presented, which gives a solution to the partial differential equation for the function $v(t, x)$, which, when $x = S (t)$ is substituted, where $S(t)$ is the stock price at the moment time $t$, gives the price of the option in the model with continuous perturbation by Brownian motion.

• The analogue of the Black – Scholes formula for the case of the model with a jump-like perturbation by the Poisson process is suggested. The derivation of this formula is based on the technique of risk-neutral measures and the independence lemma.

The article proposes a space-time approach to modeling the diffusion of information and communication technologies based on the Fisher –Kolmogorov– Petrovsky – Piskunov equation, in which the diffusion kinetics is described by the Bass model, which is widely used to model the diffusion of innovations in the market. For this equation, its equilibrium positions are studied, and based on the singular perturbation theory, was obtained an approximate solution in the form of a traveling wave, i. e. a solution that propagates at a constant speed while maintaining its shape in space. The wave speed shows how much the “spatial” characteristic, which determines the given level of technology dissemination, changes in a single time interval. This speed is significantly higher than the speed at which propagation occurs due to diffusion. By constructing such an autowave solution, it becomes possible to estimate the time required for the subject of research to achieve the current indicator of the leader.

The obtained approximate solution was further applied to assess the factors affecting the rate of dissemination of information and communication technologies in the federal districts of the Russian Federation. Various socio-economic indicators were considered as “spatial” variables for the diffusion of mobile communications among the population. Growth poles in which innovation occurs are usually characterized by the highest values of “spatial” variables. For Russia, Moscow is such a growth pole; therefore, indicators of federal districts related to Moscow’s indicators were considered as factor indicators. The best approximation to the initial data was obtained for the ratio of the share of R&D costs in GRP to the indicator of Moscow, average for the period 2000–2009. It was found that for the Ural Federal District at the initial stage of the spread of mobile communications, the lag behind the capital was less than one year, for the Central Federal District, the Northwestern Federal District — 1.4 years, for the Volga Federal District, the Siberian Federal District, the Southern Federal District and the Far Eastern Federal District — less than two years, in the North Caucasian Federal District — a little more 2 years. In addition, estimates of the delay time for the spread of digital technologies (intranet, extranet, etc.) used by organizations of the federal districts of the Russian Federation from Moscow indicators were obtained.

Getting a qualified medical examination can be difficult for people in remote areas because medical staff available can either be inaccessible or it might lack expert knowledge at proper level. Telemedicine technologies can help in such situations. On one hand, such technologies allow highly qualified doctors to consult remotely, thereby increasing the quality of diagnosis and plan treatment. On the other hand, computer-aided analysis of the research results, anamnesis and information on similar cases assist medical staff in their routine activities and decision-making.

Creating telemedicine system for a particular domain is a laborious process. It’s not sufficient to pick proper medical experts and to fill the knowledge base of the analytical module. It’s also necessary to organize the entire infrastructure of the system to meet the requirements in terms of reliability, fault tolerance, protection of personal data and so on. Tools with reusable infrastructure elements, which are common to such systems, are able to decrease the amount of work needed for the development of telemedicine systems.

An interactive tool for creating distributed telemedicine systems is described in the article. A list of requirements for the systems is presented; structural solutions for meeting the requirements are suggested. A composition of such elements applicable for distributed systems is described in the article. A cardiac telemedicine system is described as a foundation of the tool

The article describes a model of a human in the informational economy and demonstrates the multicriteria optimizational approach to the metric analysis of model-generated data. The traditional approach using the identification and study involves the model’s identification by time series and its further prediction. However, this is not possible when some variables are not explicitly observed and only some typical borders or population features are known, which is often the case in the social sciences, making some models pure theoretical. To avoid this problem, we propose a method of metric data analysis (MMDA) for identification and study of such models, based on the construction and analysis of the Kolmogorov – Shannon metric nets of the general population in a multidimensional space of social characteristics. Using this method, the coefficients of the model are identified and the features of its phase trajectories are studied. In this paper, we are describing human according to his role in information processing, considering his awareness and cognitive abilities. We construct two lifetime indices of human capital: creative individual (generalizing cognitive abilities) and productive (generalizing the amount of information mastered by a person) and formulate the problem of their multi-criteria (two-criteria) optimization taking into account life expectancy. This approach allows us to identify and economically justify the new requirements for the education system and the information environment of human existence. It is shown that the Pareto-frontier exists in the optimization problem, and its type depends on the mortality rates: at high life expectancy there is one dominant solution, while for lower life expectancy there are different types of Paretofrontier. In particular, the Pareto-principle applies to Russia: a significant increase in the creative human capital of an individual (summarizing his cognitive abilities) is possible due to a small decrease in the creative human capital (summarizing awareness). It is shown that the increase in life expectancy makes competence approach (focused on the development of cognitive abilities) being optimal, while for low life expectancy the knowledge approach is preferable.

The problem of centralized planning for data transmission routes in delay tolerant networks is considered. The original problem is extended with additional requirements to nodes storage and communication process. First, it is assumed that the connection between the nodes of the graph is established using antennas. Second, it is assumed that each node has a storage of finite capacity. The existing works do not consider these requirements. It is assumed that we have in advance information about messages to be processed, information about the network configuration at specified time points taken with a certain time periods, information on time delays for the orientation of the antennas for data transmission and restrictions on the amount of data storage on each satellite of the grouping. Two wellknown algorithms — CGR and Earliest Delivery with All Queues are improved to satisfy the extended requirements. The obtained algorithms solve the optimal message routing problem separately for each message. The problem of validation of the algorithms under conditions of lack of test data is considered as well. Possible approaches to the validation based on qualitative conjectures are proposed and tested, and experiment results are described. A performance comparison of the two implementations of the problem solving algorithms is made. Two algorithms named RDTNAS-CG and RDTNAS-AQ have been developed based on the CGR and Earliest Delivery with All Queues algorithms, respectively. The original algorithms have been significantly expanded and an augmented implementation has been developed. Validation experiments were carried to check the minimum «quality» requirements for the correctness of the algorithms. Comparative analysis of the performance of the two algorithms showed that the RDTNAS-AQ algorithm is several orders of magnitude faster than RDTNAS-CG.

Volunteer computing resembles private desktop grids whereas desktop grids are not fully equivalent to volunteer computing. There are several attempts to distinguish and categorize them using informal and formal methods. However, most formal approaches model a particular middleware and do not focus on the general notion of volunteer or desktop grid computing. This work makes an attempt to formalize their characteristics and relationship. To this end formal modeling is applied that tries to grasp the semantic of their functionalities — as opposed to comparisons based on properties, features, etc. We apply this modeling method to formalize the Berkeley Open Infrastructure for Network Computing (BOINC) [Anderson D. P., 2004] volunteer computing system.