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In many social groups, for example, in technical committees for standardization, at the international, regional and national levels, in European communities, managers of ecovillages, social movements (occupy), international organizations, decision-making is based on the consensus of the group members. Instead of voting, where the majority wins over the minority, consensus allows for a solution that each member of the group supports, or at least considers acceptable. This approach ensures that all group members’ opinions, ideas and needs are taken into account. At the same time, it is noted that reaching consensus takes a long time, since it is necessary to ensure agreement within the group, regardless of its size. It was shown that in some situations the number of iterations (agreements, negotiations) is very significant. Moreover, in the decision-making process, there is always a risk of blocking the decision by the minority in the group, which not only delays the decisionmaking time, but makes it impossible. Typically, such a minority is one or two odious people in the group. At the same time, such a member of the group tries to dominate in the discussion, always remaining in his opinion, ignoring the position of other colleagues. This leads to a delay in the decision-making process, on the one hand, and a deterioration in the quality of consensus, on the other, since only the opinion of the dominant member of the group has to be taken into account. To overcome the crisis in this situation, it was proposed to make a decision on the principle of «consensus minus one» or «consensus minus two», that is, do not take into account the opinion of one or two odious members of the group.

The article, based on modeling consensus using the model of regular Markov chains, examines the question of how much the decision-making time according to the «consensus minus one» rule is reduced, when the position of the dominant member of the group is not taken into account.

The general conclusion that follows from the simulation results is that the rule of thumb for making decisions on the principle of «consensus minus one» has a corresponding mathematical justification. The simulation results showed that the application of the «consensus minus one» rule can reduce the time to reach consensus in the group by 76–95%, which is important for practice.

The average number of agreements hyperbolically depends on the average authoritarianism of the group members (excluding the authoritarian one), which means the possibility of delaying the agreement process at high values of the authoritarianism of the group members.

Numerical modeling of shear-induced platelet activation in haemodialysis arteriovenous fistulas was carried out in this work. The goal was to investigate the mechanisms of threshold shear-induced platelet activation in fistulas. For shear-induced platelet activation to take place, shear stress accumulated by platelets along corresponding trajectories in blood flow had to exceed a definite threshold value. The threshold value of cumulative shear stress was supposed to depend on the multimer size of von Willebrand factor macromolecules acting as hydrodynamic sensors for platelets. The effect of arteriovenous fistulas parameters, such as the anastomotic angle, blood flow rate, and the multimer size of von Willebrand factor macromolecules, on platelet activation risk was studied. Parametric diagrams have been constructed that make it possible to distinguish the areas of parameters corresponding to the presence or absence of shear-induced platelet activation. Scaling relations that approximate critical curves on parametric diagrams were obtained. Analysis showed that threshold fistula flow rate is higher for obtuse anastomotic angle than for sharp ones. This means that a fistula with obtuse angle can be used in wider flow rate range without risk of platelet activation. In addition, a study of different anastomosis configurations of arteriovenous fistulas showed that the configuration “end of vein to end of artery” is among the safest. For all the investigated anastomosis configurations, the critical curves on the parametric diagrams were monotonically decreasing functions of von Willebrand factor multimer size. It was shown that fistula flow rate should have a significant impact on the probability of thrombus formation initiation, while the direction of flow through the distal artery did not affect platelet activation. The obtained results allowed to determine the safest fistula configurations with respect to thrombus formation triggering. The authors believe that the results of the work may be of interest to doctors performing surgical operations for creation of arteriovenous fistulas for haemodialysis. In the final section of the work, possible clinical applications of the obtained results by means of mathematical modeling are discussed.

The paper outlines the approaches to mathematical modeling correlation adaptometry techniques widely used in biology and medicine. The analysis is based on models employed in descriptions of structured biological systems. It is assumed that the distribution density of the biological population numbers satisfies the equation of Kolmogorov-Fokker-Planck. Using this technique evaluated the effectiveness of treatment of patients with obesity. All patients depending on the obesity degree and the comorbidity nature were divided into three groups. Shows a decrease in weight of the correlation graph computed from the measured in the patients of the indicators that characterizes the effectiveness of the treatment for all studied groups. This technique was also used to assess the intensity of the training loads in academic rowing three age groups. It was shown that with the highest voltage worked with athletes for youth group. Also, using the technique of correlation adaptometry evaluated the effectiveness of the treatment of hormone replacement therapy in women. All the patients depending on the assigned drug were divided into four groups. In the standard analysis of the dynamics of mean values of indicators, it was shown that in the course of the treatment were observed normalization of the averages for all groups of patients. However, using the technique of correlation adaptometry it was found that during the first six months the weight of the correlation graph was decreasing and during the second six months the weight increased for all study groups. This indicates the excessive length of the annual course of hormone replacement therapy and the practicality of transition to a semiannual rate.

The study of the mechanism for the development of mass panic in view of its extreme importance and social danger is an important scientific task. Available information about the mechanism of her development is based mainly on the work of psychologists and belongs to the category of inaccurate. Therefore, the theory of fuzzy sets has been chosen as a tool for developing a mathematical model of a person's susceptibility to panic situations. As a result of the study, an fuzzy model was developed, consisting of blocks: “Fuzzyfication”, where the degree of belonging of the values of the input parameters to fuzzy sets is calculated; “Inference” where, based on the degree of belonging of the input parameters, the resulting function of belonging of the output value to an odd model is calculated; “Defuzzyfication”, where using the center of gravity method, the only quantitative value of the output variable characterizing a person's susceptibility to panic situations is determined Since the real quantitative values for linguistic variables mental properties of a person are unknown, then to assess the quality of the developed model, without endangering people, it is not possible. Therefore, the quality of the results of fuzzy modeling was estimated by the calculated value of the determination coefficient R2, which showed that the developed fuzzy model belongs to the category of good quality models $(R^2 = 0.93)$, which confirms the legitimacy of the assumptions made during her development. In accordance with to the results of the simulation, human susceptibility to panic situations for sanguinics and cholerics can be attributed to “increased” (0.88), and for phlegmatics and melancholics — to “moderate” (0.38). This means that cholerics and sanguinics can become epicenters of panic and the initiators of stampede, and phlegmatics and melancholics — obstacles to evacuation routes. What should be taken into account when developing effective evacuation measures, the main task of which is to quickly and safely evacuate people from adverse conditions. In the approved methods, the calculation of normative values of safety parameters is based on simplified analytical models of human flow movement, because a large number of factors have to be taken into account, some of which are quantitatively uncertain. The obtained result in the form of quantitative estimates of a person's susceptibility to panic situations will increase the accuracy of calculations.

The data of episodic field measurements of carbon dioxide balance components (soil respiration — R_soil, ecosystem respiration — R_eco, net ecosystem exchange — NEE) of hayfields under use and abandoned one are interpreted by modelling. The field measurements were carried within five field campaigns in 2018 and 2019 on the drained part of the Dubna Peatland in Taldom District, Moscow Oblast, Russia. The territory is within humid continental climate zone. Peatland drainage was done out for milled peat extraction. After extraction was stopped, the residual peat deposit (1–1.5 m) was ploughed and grassed (Poa pratensis L.) for hay production. The current ground water level (GWL) varies from 0.3–0.5 m below the surface during wet and up to 1.0 m during dry periods. Daily dynamics of CO2 fluxes was measured using dynamic chamber method in 2018 (August) and 2019 (May, June, August) for abandoned ditch spacing only with sanitary mowing once in 5 years and the ditch spacing with annual mowing. NEE and Reco were measured on the sites with original vegetation, and Rsoil — after vegetation removal. To model a seasonal dynamics of NEE, the dependence of its components (Reco, Rsoil, and Gross ecosystematmosphere exchange of carbon dioxide — GEE) from soil and air temperature, GWL, photosynthetically active radiation, underground and aboveground plant biomass were used. The parametrization of the models has been carried out considering the stability of coefficients estimated by the bootstrap method. R2 (α = 0.05) between simulated and measured Reco was 0.44 (p < 0.0003) on abandoned and 0.59 (p < 0.04) on under use hayfield, and GEE was 0.57 (p < 0.0002) and 0.77 (p < 0.00001), respectively. Numerical experiments were carried out to assess the influence of different haymaking regime on NEE. It was found that NEE for the season (May 15 – September 30) did not differ much between the hayfield without mowing (4.5±1.0 tC·ha–1·season–1) and the abandoned one (6.2±1.4). Single mowing during the season leads to increase of NEE up to 6.5±0.9, and double mowing — up to 7.5±1.4 tC·ha–1·season–1. This means increase of carbon losses and CO2 emission into the atmosphere. Carbon loss on hayfield for both single and double mowing scenario was comparable with abandoned hayfield. The value of removed phytomass for single and double mowing was 0.8±0.1 tC·ha^–1·season^–1 and 1.4±0.1 (45% carbon content in dry phytomass) or 3.0 and 4.4 t·ha^–1·season^–1 of hay (17% moisture content). In comparison with the fallow, the removal of biomass of 0.8±0.1 at single and 1.4±0.1 tC·ha^–1·season^–1 double mowing is accompanied by an increase in carbon loss due to CO2 emissions, i.e., the growth of NEE by 0.3±0.1 and 1.3±0.6 tC·ha–1·season–1, respectively. This corresponds to the growth of NEE for each ton of withdrawn phytomass per hectare of 0.4±0.2 tС·ha–1·season–1 at single mowing, and 0.9±0.7 tС·ha^–1·season^–1 at double mowing. Therefore, single mowing is more justified in terms of carbon loss than double mowing. Extensive mowing does not increase CO2 emissions into the atmosphere and allows, in addition, to “replace” part of the carbon loss by agricultural production.