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The paper provides a method for selecting the composition of a refrigerant with a given isobaric cooling curve using an artificial neural network (ANN). This method is based on the use of 1D layers of a convolutional neural network. To train the neural network, we applied a technological model of a simple heat exchanger in the UniSim design program, using the Peng – Robinson equation of state.We created synthetic database on isobaric boiling curves of refrigerants of different compositions using the technological model. To record the database, an algorithm was developed in the Python programming language, and information on isobaric boiling curves for 1 049 500 compositions was uploaded using the COM interface. The compositions have generated by Monte Carlo method. Designed architecture of ANN allows select composition of a mixed refrigerant by 101 points of boiling curve. ANN gives mole flows of mixed refrigerant by composition (methane, ethane, propane, nitrogen) on the output layer. For training ANN, we used method of cyclical learning rate. For results demonstration we selected MR composition by natural gas cooling curve with a minimum temperature drop of 3 К and a maximum temperature drop of no more than 10 К, which turn better than we predicted via UniSim SQP optimizer and better than predicted by $k$-nearest neighbors algorithm. A significant value of this article is the fact that an artificial neural network can be used to select the optimal composition of the refrigerant when analyzing the cooling curve of natural gas. This method can help engineers select the composition of the mixed refrigerant in real time, which will help reduce the energy consumption of natural gas liquefaction.

Buckling problems of thin elastic shells have become relevant again because of the discrepancies between the standards in many countries on how to estimate loads causing buckling of shallow shells and the results of the experiments on thinwalled aviation structures made of high-strength alloys. The main contradiction is as follows: the ultimate internal stresses at shell buckling (collapsing) turn out to be lower than the ones predicted by the adopted design theory used in the USA and European standards. The current regulations are based on the static theory of shallow shells that was put forward in the 1930s: within the nonlinear theory of elasticity for thin-walled structures there are stable solutions that significantly differ from the forms of equilibrium typical to small initial loads. The minimum load (the lowest critical load) when there is an alternative form of equilibrium was used as a maximum permissible one. In the 1970s it was recognized that this approach is unacceptable for complex loadings. Such cases were not practically relevant in the past while now they occur with thinner structures used under complex conditions. Therefore, the initial theory on bearing capacity assessments needs to be revised. The recent mathematical results that proved asymptotic proximity of the estimates based on two analyses (the three-dimensional dynamic theory of elasticity and the dynamic theory of shallow convex shells) could be used as a theory basis. This paper starts with the setting of the dynamic theory of shallow shells that comes down to one resolving integrodifferential equation (once the special Green function is constructed). It is shown that the obtained nonlinear equation allows for separation of variables and has numerous time-period solutions that meet the Duffing equation with “a soft spring”. This equation has been thoroughly studied; its numerical analysis enables finding an amplitude and an oscillation period depending on the properties of the Green function. If the shell is oscillated with the trial time-harmonic load, the movement of the surface points could be measured at the maximum amplitude. The study proposes an experimental set-up where resonance oscillations are generated with the trial load normal to the surface. The experimental measurements of the shell movements, the amplitude and the oscillation period make it possible to estimate the safety factor of the structure bearing capacity with non-destructive methods under operating conditions.

The paper discusses the possibility of modeling the strength anisotropy of layered elastic medium using a scalar damage parameter. Thermodynamically consistent constitutive equations are formulated. Using SIMULIA / Abaqus we numerically simulated the stretching and compression of the samples. The results of calculation using the proposed model are compared with the known experimental data from the literature and the predictions of traditional models.

Ligand protected metal nanoclusters (NCs) have gained much attention due to their unique physicochemical properties and potential applications in material science. Noble metal NCs protected with thiolate ligands have been of interest because of their long-term stability. The detailed structures of most of the ligandstabilized metal NCs remain unknown due to the absence of crystal structure data for them. Theoretical calculations using quantum chemistry techniques appear as one of the most promising tools for determining the structure and electronic properties of NCs. That is why finding a cost-effective strategy for calculations is such an important and challenging task. In this work, we compare the performance of different theoretical methods of geometry optimization and absorption spectra calculation for silver-thiolate complexes. We show that second order Moller–Plesset perturbation theory reproduces nicely the geometries obtained at a higher level of theory, in particular, with RI-CC2 method. We compare the absorption spectra of silver-thiolate complexes simulated with different methods: EOM-CCSD, RI-CC2, ADC(2) and TDDFT. We show that the absorption spectra calculated with the ADC(2) method are consistent with the spectra obtained with the EOM-CCSD and RI-CC2 methods. CAM-B3LYP functional fails to reproduce the absorption spectra of the silver-thiolate complexes. However, M062X global hybrid meta-GGA functional seems to be a nice compromise regarding its low computational costs. In our previous study, we have already demonstrated that M062X functional shows good accuracy as compared to ADC(2) ab initio method predicting the excitation spectra of silver nanocluster complexes with nucleobases.

This article presents a classification of cities, taking into account their spatial planning and possible transport solutions for cities of various types. It also discusses examples of various strategies for the development of urban public transport in Russia and the European Union with a comparison of their efficiency. The article gives examples of the impact of urban planning on mobility of citizens. To implement complex strategic decisions, it is necessary to use micro and macro models which allow a comparison of situations “as is” and “as to be” to predict consequences. In addition, the authors propose a methodology to improve public transport route network and road network, which includes determining population needs in working and educational correspondences, identifying bottlenecks in the road network, developing simulation models and developing recommendations based on the simulation results, as well as the calculation of efficiency, including the calculation of a positive social effect, economic efficiency, environmental friendliness and sustainability of the urban transport system. To prove the suggested methodology, the macro and micro models of the city under study were built taking into account the spatial planning and other specifics of the city. Thus, the case study of the city of Naberezhnye Chelny shows that the use of our methodology can help to improve the situation on the roads by optimizing the bus route network and the road infrastructure. The results showed that by implementing the proposed solutions one can decrease the amount of transport load on the bottlenecks, the number of overlapping bus routes and the traffic density.

The article describes the state of the art computer simulation in the field of metal forming processes, the main problem points of traditional methods were identified. The method, that allows to predict the deformation distribution in the volume of deformable metal with taking into account of microstructure behavioral characteristics in deformation load conditions, was described. The method for optimizing computational resources of multiscale models by using statistical similar representative volume elements (SSRVE) was presented. The modeling methods were tested on the process of single pass drawing of round rod from steel grade 20. In a comparative analysis of macro and micro levels models differences in quantitative terms of the stress-strain state and their local distribution have been identified. Microlevel model also allowed to detect the compressive stresses and strains, which were absent at the macro level model. Applying the SSRVE concept repeatedly lowered the calculation time of the model while maintaining the overall accuracy.

This paper is devoted to the analysis of the effect of additive and parametric noise on the processes occurring in the nerve cell. This study is carried out on the example of the well-known Morris – Lecar model described by the two-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations. One of the main properties of the neuron is the excitability, i.e., the ability to respond to external stimuli with an abrupt change of the electric potential on the cell membrane. This article considers a set of parameters, wherein the model exhibits the class 2 excitability. The dynamics of the system is studied under variation of the external current parameter. We consider two parametric zones: the monostability zone, where a stable equilibrium is the only attractor of the deterministic system, and the bistability zone, characterized by the coexistence of a stable equilibrium and a limit cycle. We show that in both cases random disturbances result in the phenomenon of the stochastic generation of mixed-mode oscillations (i. e., alternating oscillations of small and large amplitudes). In the monostability zone this phenomenon is associated with a high excitability of the system, while in the bistability zone, it occurs due to noise-induced transitions between attractors. This phenomenon is confirmed by changes of probability density functions for distribution of random trajectories, power spectral densities and interspike intervals statistics. The action of additive and parametric noise is compared. We show that under the parametric noise, the stochastic generation of mixed-mode oscillations is observed at lower intensities than under the additive noise. For the quantitative analysis of these stochastic phenomena we propose and apply an approach based on the stochastic sensitivity function technique and the method of confidence domains. In the case of a stable equilibrium, this confidence domain is an ellipse. For the stable limit cycle, this domain is a confidence band. The study of the mutual location of confidence bands and the boundary separating the basins of attraction for different noise intensities allows us to predict the emergence of noise-induced transitions. The effectiveness of this analytical approach is confirmed by the good agreement of theoretical estimations with results of direct numerical simulations.

The article proposes a method of joint analysis of multidimensional financial time series based on the evaluation of the set of properties of stock quotes in a sliding time window and the subsequent averaging of property values for all analyzed companies. The main purpose of the analysis is to construct measures of joint behavior of time series reacting to the occurrence of a synchronous or coherent component. The coherence of the behavior of the characteristics of a complex system is an important feature that makes it possible to evaluate the approach of the system to sharp changes in its state. The basis for the search for precursors of sharp changes is the general idea of increasing the correlation of random fluctuations of the system parameters as it approaches the critical state. The increments in time series of stock values have a pronounced chaotic character and have a large amplitude of individual noises, against which a weak common signal can be detected only on the basis of its correlation in different scalar components of a multidimensional time series. It is known that classical methods of analysis based on the use of correlations between neighboring samples are ineffective in the processing of financial time series, since from the point of view of the correlation theory of random processes, increments in the value of shares formally have all the attributes of white noise (in particular, the “flat spectrum” and “delta-shaped” autocorrelation function). In connection with this, it is proposed to go from analyzing the initial signals to examining the sequences of their nonlinear properties calculated in time fragments of small length. As such properties, the entropy of the wavelet coefficients is used in the decomposition into the Daubechies basis, the multifractal parameters and the autoregressive measure of signal nonstationarity. Measures of synchronous behavior of time series properties in a sliding time window are constructed using the principal component method, moduli values of all pairwise correlation coefficients, and a multiple spectral coherence measure that is a generalization of the quadratic coherence spectrum between two signals. The shares of 16 large Russian companies from the beginning of 2010 to the end of 2016 were studied. Using the proposed method, two synchronization time intervals of the Russian stock market were identified: from mid-December 2013 to mid- March 2014 and from mid-October 2014 to mid-January 2016.

The development of a viral infection in the organism is a complex process which depends on the competition race between virus replication in the host cells and the immune response. To study different regimes of infection progression, we analyze the general mathematical model of immune response to viral infection. The model consists of two ODEs for virus and immune cells non-dimensionalized concentrations. The proliferation rate of immune cells in the model is represented by a bell-shaped function of the virus concentration. This function increases for small virus concentrations describing the antigen-stimulated clonal expansion of immune cells, and decreases for sufficiently high virus concentrations describing down-regulation of immune cells proliferation by the infection. Depending on the virus virulence, strength of the immune response, and the initial viral load, the model predicts several scenarios: (a) infection can be completely eliminated, (b) it can remain at a low level while the concentration of immune cells is high; (c) immune cells can be essentially exhausted, or (d) completely exhausted, which is accompanied (c, d) by high virus concentration. The analysis of the model shows that virus concentration can oscillate as it gradually converges to its equilibrium value. We show that the considered model can be obtained by the reduction of a more general model with an additional equation for the total viral load provided that this equation is fast. In the case of slow kinetics of the total viral load, this more general model should be used.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused increased interest in mathematical models of the epidemic process, since only statistical analysis of morbidity does not allow medium-term forecasting in a rapidly changing situation.

Among the specific features of COVID-19 that need to be taken into account in mathematical models are the heterogeneity of the pathogen, repeated changes in the dominant variant of SARS-CoV-2, and the relative short duration of post-infectious immunity.

In this regard, solutions to a system of differential equations for a SIR class model with a heterogeneous duration of post-infectious immunity were analytically studied, and numerical calculations were carried out for the dynamics of the system with an average duration of post-infectious immunity of the order of a year.

For a SIR class model with a heterogeneous duration of post-infectious immunity, it was proven that any solution can be continued indefinitely in time in a positive direction without leaving the domain of definition of the system.

For the contact number $R_0 \leqslant 1$, all solutions tend to a single trivial stationary solution with a zero share of infected people, and for $R_0 > 1$, in addition to the trivial solution, there is also a non-trivial stationary solution with non-zero shares of infected and susceptible people. The existence and uniqueness of a non-trivial stationary solution for $R_0 > 1$ was proven, and it was also proven that it is a global attractor.

Also, for several variants of heterogeneity, the eigenvalues of the rate of exponential convergence of small deviations from a nontrivial stationary solution were calculated.

It was found that for contact number values corresponding to COVID-19, the phase trajectory has the form of a twisting spiral with a period length of the order of a year.

This corresponds to the real dynamics of the incidence of COVID-19, in which, after several months of increasing incidence, a period of falling begins. At the same time, a second wave of incidence of a smaller amplitude, as predicted by the model, was not observed, since during 2020–2023, approximately every six months, a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 appeared, which was more infectious than the previous one, as a result of which the new variant replaced the previous one and became dominant.