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Neural network model of human intoxication functional state determining in some problems of transport safety solution
Computer Research and Modeling, 2018, v. 10, no. 3, pp. 285-293Views (last year): 42. Citations: 2 (RSCI).This article solves the problem of vehicles drivers intoxication functional statedetermining. Its solution is relevant in the transport security field during pre-trip medical examination. The problem solution is based on the papillomometry method application, which allows to evaluate the driver state by his pupillary reaction to illumination change. The problem is to determine the state of driver inebriation by the analysis of the papillogram parameters values — a time series characterizing the change in pupil dimensions upon exposure to a short-time light pulse. For the papillograms analysis it is proposed to use a neural network. A neural network model for determining the drivers intoxication functional state is developed. For its training, specially prepared data samples are used which are the values of the following parameters of pupillary reactions grouped into two classes of functional states of drivers: initial diameter, minimum diameter, half-constriction diameter, final diameter, narrowing amplitude, rate of constriction, expansion rate, latent reaction time, the contraction time, the expansion time, the half-contraction time, and the half-expansion time. An example of the initial data is given. Based on their analysis, a neural network model is constructed in the form of a single-layer perceptron consisting of twelve input neurons, twenty-five neurons of the hidden layer, and one output neuron. To increase the model adequacy using the method of ROC analysis, the optimal cut-off point for the classes of solutions at the output of the neural network is determined. A scheme for determining the drivers intoxication state is proposed, which includes the following steps: pupillary reaction video registration, papillogram construction, parameters values calculation, data analysis on the base of the neural network model, driver’s condition classification as “norm” or “rejection of the norm”, making decisions on the person being audited. A medical worker conducting driver examination is presented with a neural network assessment of his intoxication state. On the basis of this assessment, an opinion on the admission or removal of the driver from driving the vehicle is drawn. Thus, the neural network model solves the problem of increasing the efficiency of pre-trip medical examination by increasing the reliability of the decisions made.
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Four-factor computing experiment for the random walk on a two-dimensional square field
Computer Research and Modeling, 2017, v. 9, no. 6, pp. 905-918Views (last year): 21.Nowadays the random search became a widespread and effective tool for solving different complex optimization and adaptation problems. In this work, the problem of an average duration of a random search for one object by another is regarded, depending on various factors on a square field. The problem solution was carried out by holding total experiment with 4 factors and orthogonal plan with 54 lines. Within each line, the initial conditions and the cellular automaton transition rules were simulated and the duration of the search for one object by another was measured. As a result, the regression model of average duration of a random search for an object depending on the four factors considered, specifying the initial positions of two objects, the conditions of their movement and detection is constructed. The most significant factors among the factors considered in the work that determine the average search time are determined. An interpretation is carried out in the problem of random search for an object from the constructed model. The important result of the work is that the qualitative and quantitative influence of initial positions of objects, the size of the lattice and the transition rules on the average duration of search is revealed by means of model obtained. It is shown that the initial neighborhood of objects on the lattice does not guarantee a quick search, if each of them moves. In addition, it is quantitatively estimated how many times the average time of searching for an object can increase or decrease with increasing the speed of the searching object by 1 unit, and also with increasing the field size by 1 unit, with different initial positions of the two objects. The exponential nature of the growth in the number of steps for searching for an object with an increase in the lattice size for other fixed factors is revealed. The conditions for the greatest increase in the average search duration are found: the maximum distance of objects in combination with the immobility of one of them when the field size is changed by 1 unit. (that is, for example, with $4 \times 4$ at $5 \times 5$) can increase the average search duration in $e^{1.69} \approx 5.42$. The task presented in the work may be relevant from the point of view of application both in the landmark for ensuring the security of the state, and, for example, in the theory of mass service.
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Technology for collecting initial data for constructing models for assessing the functional state of a human by pupil's response to illumination changes in the solution of some problems of transport safety
Computer Research and Modeling, 2021, v. 13, no. 2, pp. 417-427This article solves the problem of developing a technology for collecting initial data for building models for assessing the functional state of a person. This condition is assessed by the pupil response of a person to a change in illumination based on the pupillometry method. This method involves the collection and analysis of initial data (pupillograms), presented in the form of time series characterizing the dynamics of changes in the human pupils to a light impulse effect. The drawbacks of the traditional approach to the collection of initial data using the methods of computer vision and smoothing of time series are analyzed. Attention is focused on the importance of the quality of the initial data for the construction of adequate mathematical models. The need for manual marking of the iris and pupil circles is updated to improve the accuracy and quality of the initial data. The stages of the proposed technology for collecting initial data are described. An example of the obtained pupillogram is given, which has a smooth shape and does not contain outliers, noise, anomalies and missing values. Based on the presented technology, a software and hardware complex has been developed, which is a collection of special software with two main modules, and hardware implemented on the basis of a Raspberry Pi 4 Model B microcomputer, with peripheral equipment that implements the specified functionality. To evaluate the effectiveness of the developed technology, models of a single-layer perspetron and a collective of neural networks are used, for the construction of which the initial data on the functional state of intoxication of a person were used. The studies have shown that the use of manual marking of the initial data (in comparison with automatic methods of computer vision) leads to a decrease in the number of errors of the 1st and 2nd years of the kind and, accordingly, to an increase in the accuracy of assessing the functional state of a person. Thus, the presented technology for collecting initial data can be effectively used to build adequate models for assessing the functional state of a person by pupillary response to changes in illumination. The use of such models is relevant in solving individual problems of ensuring transport security, in particular, monitoring the functional state of drivers.
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The model of the rationale for the focus of border security efforts at the state level
Computer Research and Modeling, 2019, v. 11, no. 1, pp. 187-196Views (last year): 26.The most important principle of military science and border security is the principle of concentrating the main efforts on the main directions and tasks. At the tactical level, there are many mathematical models for computing the optimal resource allocation by directions and objects, whereas at the state level there are no corresponding models. Using the statistical data on the results of the protection of the US border, an exponential type border production function parameter is calculated that reflects the organizational and technological capabilities of the border guard. The production function determines the dependence of the probability of detaining offenders from the density of border guards per kilometer of the border. Financial indicators in the production function are not taken into account, as the border maintenance budget and border equipment correlate with the number of border agents. The objective function of the border guards is defined — the total prevented damage from detained violators taking into account their expected danger for the state and society, which is to be maximized. Using Slater's condition, the solution of the problem was found — optimal density of border guard was calculated for the regions of the state. Having a model of resource allocation, the example of the three border regions of the United States has also solved the reverse problem — threats in the regions have been assessed based on the known allocation of resources. The expected danger from an individual offender on the US-Canada border is 2–5 times higher than from an offender on the US-Mexican border. The results of the calculations are consistent with the views of US security experts: illegal migrants are mostly detained on the US-Mexican border, while potential terrorists prefer to use other channels of penetration into the US (including the US-Canadian border), where the risks of being detained are minimal. Also, the results of the calculations are consistent with the established practice of border protection: in 2013 the number of border guards outside the checkpoints on the US-Mexican border increased by 2 times compared with 2001, while on the American-Canadian border — 4 times. The practice of border protection and the views of specialists give grounds for approval of the verification of the model.
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National security and geopotential of the State: mathematical modeling and forecasting
Computer Research and Modeling, 2015, v. 7, no. 4, pp. 951-969Views (last year): 11.Using mathematical modeling, geopolitical, historical and natural science approach, the model of national security. Security model reflects the dichotomy of values development and conservation, being the product of the corresponding functions. In this paper we evaluated the basic parameters of the model and discusses some of its applications in the field of geopolitics and national security.
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Reconstruction of the security of the Roman Empire
Computer Research and Modeling, 2016, v. 8, no. 1, pp. 169-200Views (last year): 3.The paper considers the model of national security, which reflects the dichotomy of values development and conservation, to evaluate its options on the example of Russia (USSR), the United States, Germany and Ukraine. The calculations to assess the safety of the Roman Empire. It is shown that in 160 AD the conservation value of the function has reached a critically low values, which served as the impetus for modernization and reform.
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Forecasting the labor force dynamics in a multisectoral labor market
Computer Research and Modeling, 2021, v. 13, no. 1, pp. 235-250The article considers the problem of forecasting the number of employed and unemployed persons in a multisectoral labor market using a balance mathematical model of labor force intersectoral dynamics.
The balance mathematical model makes it possible to calculate the values of intersectoral dynamics indicators using only statistical data on sectoral employment and unemployment provided by the Federal State Statistics Service. Intersectoral dynamics indicators of labor force calculated for several years in a row are used to build trends for each of these indicators. The found trends are used to calculation of forecasted intersectoral dynamics indicators of labor force. The sectoral employment and unemployment of researched multisectoral labor market is forecasted based on values these forecasted indicators.
The proposed approach was applied to forecast the employed persons in the economic sectors of the Russian Federation in 2011–2016. The following types of trends were used to describe changes of intersectoral dynamics indicators values: linear, non-linear, constant. The procedure for selecting trends is clearly demonstrated by the example of indicators that determine the labor force movements from the “Transport and communications” sector to the “Healthcare and social services” sector, as well as from the “Public administration and military security, social security” sector to the “Education” sector.
Several approaches to forecasting was compared: a) naive forecast, within which the labor market indicators was forecasted only using a constant trend; b) forecasting based on a balance model using only a constant trend for all intersectoral dynamics indicators of labor force; c) forecasting directly by the number employed persons in economic sectors using the types of trends considered in the article; d) forecasting based on a balance model with the trends choice for each intersectoral dynamics indicators of labor force.
The article shows that the use of a balance model provides a better forecast quality compared to forecasting directly by the number of employed persons. The use of trends in intersectoral dynamics indicators improves the quality of the forecast. The article also provides analysis examples of the multisectoral labor market in the Russian Federation. Using the balance model, the following information was obtained: the labor force flows distribution outgoing from concrete sectors by sectors of the economy; the sectoral structure of the labor force flows ingoing in concrete sectors. This information is not directly contained in the data provided by the Federal State Statistics Service.
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