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This article solves the problem of vehicles drivers intoxication functional statedetermining. Its solution is relevant in the transport security field during pre-trip medical examination. The problem solution is based on the papillomometry method application, which allows to evaluate the driver state by his pupillary reaction to illumination change. The problem is to determine the state of driver inebriation by the analysis of the papillogram parameters values — a time series characterizing the change in pupil dimensions upon exposure to a short-time light pulse. For the papillograms analysis it is proposed to use a neural network. A neural network model for determining the drivers intoxication functional state is developed. For its training, specially prepared data samples are used which are the values of the following parameters of pupillary reactions grouped into two classes of functional states of drivers: initial diameter, minimum diameter, half-constriction diameter, final diameter, narrowing amplitude, rate of constriction, expansion rate, latent reaction time, the contraction time, the expansion time, the half-contraction time, and the half-expansion time. An example of the initial data is given. Based on their analysis, a neural network model is constructed in the form of a single-layer perceptron consisting of twelve input neurons, twenty-five neurons of the hidden layer, and one output neuron. To increase the model adequacy using the method of ROC analysis, the optimal cut-off point for the classes of solutions at the output of the neural network is determined. A scheme for determining the drivers intoxication state is proposed, which includes the following steps: pupillary reaction video registration, papillogram construction, parameters values calculation, data analysis on the base of the neural network model, driver’s condition classification as “norm” or “rejection of the norm”, making decisions on the person being audited. A medical worker conducting driver examination is presented with a neural network assessment of his intoxication state. On the basis of this assessment, an opinion on the admission or removal of the driver from driving the vehicle is drawn. Thus, the neural network model solves the problem of increasing the efficiency of pre-trip medical examination by increasing the reliability of the decisions made.

This paper presents algorithm for modeling set of trajectories of non-stationary time series, based on a numerical scheme for approximating the sample density of the distribution function in a problem with fixed ends, when the initial distribution for a given number of steps transforms into a certain final distribution, so that at each step the semigroup property of solving the Liouville equation is satisfied. The model makes it possible to numerically construct evolving densities of distribution functions during random switching of states of the system generating the original time series.

The main problem is related to the fact that with the numerical implementation of the left-hand differential derivative in time, the solution becomes unstable, but such approach corresponds to the modeling of evolution. An integrative approach is used while choosing implicit stable schemes with “going into the future”, this does not match the semigroup property at each step. If, on the other hand, some real process is being modeled, in which goal-setting presumably takes place, then it is desirable to use schemes that generate a model of the transition process. Such model is used in the future in order to build a predictor of the disorder, which will allow you to determine exactly what state the process under study is going into, before the process really went into it. The model described in the article can be used as a tool for modeling real non-stationary time series.

Steps of the modeling scheme are described further. Fragments corresponding to certain states are selected from a given time series, for example, trends with specified slope angles and variances. Reference distributions of states are compiled from these fragments. Then the empirical distributions of the duration of the system’s stay in the specified states and the duration of the transition time from state to state are determined. In accordance with these empirical distributions, a probabilistic model of the disorder is constructed and the corresponding trajectories of the time series are modeled.

A set of implicit difference schemes on the five-pointwise stensil is under construction. The analysis of properties of difference schemes is carried out in a space of undetermined coefficients. The spaces were introduced for the first time by A. S. Kholodov. Usually for properties of difference schemes investigation the problem of the linear programming was constructed. The coefficient at the main term of a discrepancy was considered as the target function. The optimization task with inequalities type restrictions was considered for construction of the monotonic difference schemes. The limitation of such an approach becomes clear taking into account that approximation of the difference scheme is defined only on the classical (smooth) solutions of partial differential equations.

The functional which minimum will be found put in compliance to the difference scheme. The functional must be the linear on the difference schemes coefficients. It is possible that the functional depends on net function – the solution of a difference task or a grid projection of the differential problem solution. If the initial terms of the functional expansion in a Taylor series on grid parameters are equal to conditions of classical approximation, we will call that the functional will be the generalized condition of approximation. It is shown that such functionals exist. For the simple linear partial differential equation with constant coefficients construction of the functional is possible also for the generalized (non-smooth) solution of a differential problem.

Families of functionals both for smooth solutions of an initial differential problem and for the generalized solution are constructed. The new difference schemes based on the analysis of the functionals by linear programming methods are constructed. At the same time the research of couple of self-dual problems of the linear programming is used. The optimum monotonic difference scheme possessing the first order of approximation on the smooth solution of differential problem is found. The possibility of application of the new schemes for creation of hybrid difference methods of the raised approximation order on smooth solutions is discussed.

The example of numerical implementation of the simplest difference scheme with the generalized approximation is given.

The study completes a series of the author’s works devoted to the spread of particles population in supercritical catalytic branching random walk (CBRW) on a multidimensional lattice. The CBRW model describes the evolution of a system of particles combining their random movement with branching (reproduction and death) which only occurs at fixed points of the lattice. The set of such catalytic points is assumed to be finite and arbitrary. In the supercritical regime the size of population, initiated by a parent particle, increases exponentially with positive probability. The rate of the spread depends essentially on the distribution tails of the random walk jump. If the jump distribution has “light tails”, the “population front”, formed by the particles most distant from the origin, moves linearly in time and the limiting shape of the front is a convex surface. When the random walk jump has independent coordinates with a semiexponential distribution, the population spreads with a power rate in time and the limiting shape of the front is a star-shape nonconvex surface. So far, for regularly varying tails (“heavy” tails), we have considered the problem of scaled front propagation assuming independence of components of the random walk jump. Now, without this hypothesis, we examine an “isotropic” case, when the rate of decay of the jumps distribution in different directions is given by the same regularly varying function. We specify the probability that, for time going to infinity, the limiting random set formed by appropriately scaled positions of population particles belongs to a set $B$ containing the origin with its neighborhood, in $\mathbb{R}^d$. In contrast to the previous results, the random cloud of particles with normalized positions in the time limit will not concentrate on coordinate axes with probability one.

The simplest and most desirable method of traffic signal control is precalculated regulation, when the parameters of the traffic light object operation are calculated in advance and activated in accordance to a schedule. This work proposes a method of forming a signal plan that allows one to calculate the control programs and set the period of their activity. Preparation of initial data for the calculation includes the formation of a time series of daily traffic intensity with an interval of 15 minutes. When carrying out field studies, it is possible that part of the traffic intensity measurements is missing. To fill up the missing traffic intensity measurements, the spline interpolation method is used. The next step of the method is to calculate the daily set of signal plans. The work presents the interdependencies, which allow one to calculate the optimal durations of the control cycle and the permitting phase movement and to set the period of their activity. The present movement control systems have a limit on the number of control programs. To reduce the signal plans' number and to determine their activity period, the clusterization using the $k$-means method in the transport phase space is introduced In the new daily signal plan, the duration of the phases is determined by the coordinates of the received cluster centers, and the activity periods are set by the elements included in the cluster. Testing on a numerical illustration showed that, when the number of clusters is 10, the deviation of the optimal phase duration from the cluster centers does not exceed 2 seconds. To evaluate the effectiveness of the developed methodology, a real intersection with traffic light regulation was considered as an example. Based on field studies of traffic patterns and traffic demand, a microscopic model for the SUMO (Simulation of Urban Mobility) program was developed. The efficiency assessment is based on the transport losses estimated by the time spent on movement. Simulation modeling of the multiprogram control of traffic lights showed a 20% reduction in the delay time at the traffic light object in comparison with the single-program control. The proposed method allows automation of the process of calculating daily signal plans and setting the time of their activity.

Calculations of radiation transport in the shockwave layer of a descent space vehicle cause essential difficulties due to complex multi-resonance dependence of the absorption macroscopic cross sections from the photon energy. The convergence of two approximate spectrum averaging methods to the results of exact pointwise spectrum calculations is investigated. The first one is the well known multigroup method, the second one is the Lebesgue averaging method belonging to methods of the reduction of calculation points by means of aggregation of spectral points which are characterized by equal absorption strength. It is shown that convergence of the Lebesgue averaging method is significantly faster than the multigroup approach as the number of groups is increased. The only 100–150 Lebesgue groups are required to achieve the accuracy of pointwise calculations even in the shock layer at upper atmosphere with sharp absorption lines. At the same time the number of calculations is reduced by more than four order. Series of calculations of the radiation distribution function in 2D shock layer around a sphere and a blunt cone were performed using the local flat layer approximation and the Lebesgue averaging method. It is shown that the shock wave radiation becomes more significant both in value of the energy flux incident on the body surface and in the rate of energy exchange with the gas-dynamic flow in the case of increasing of the vehicle’s size.

Mathematical models of many natural processes are described by partial differential equations with singular solutions. Classical numerical methods for determination of approximate solution to such problems are inefficient. In the present paper a boundary value problem for vector wave equation in L-shaped domain is considered. The presence of reentrant corner of size $3\pi/2$ on the boundary of computational domain leads to the strong singularity of the solution, i.e. it does not belong to the Sobolev space $H^1$ so classical and special numerical methods have a convergence rate less than $O(h)$. Therefore in the present paper a special weighted set of vector-functions is introduced. In this set the solution of considered boundary value problem is defined as $R_ν$-generalized one.

For numerical determination of the $R_ν$-generalized solution a weighted vector finite element method is constructed. The basic difference of this method is that the basis functions contain as a factor a special weight function in a degree depending on the properties of the solution of initial problem. This allows to significantly raise a convergence speed of approximate solution to the exact one when the mesh is refined. Moreover, introduced basis functions are solenoidal, therefore the solenoidal condition for the solution is taken into account precisely, so the spurious numerical solutions are prevented.

Results of numerical experiments are presented for series of different type model problems: some of them have a solution containing only singular component and some of them have a solution containing a singular and regular components. Results of numerical experiment showed that when a finite element mesh is refined a convergence rate of the constructed weighted vector finite element method is $O(h)$, that is more than one and a half times better in comparison with special methods developed for described problem, namely singular complement method and regularization method. Another features of constructed method are algorithmic simplicity and naturalness of the solution determination that is beneficial for numerical computations.

In this paper, a gravitational system is understood as a set of point bodies that interact according to Newton's law of attraction and have a negative value of the total energy. The question of the stability (nonstability) of a gravitational system of general position is discussed by direct computational experiment. A gravitational system of general position is a system in which the masses, initial positions, and velocities of bodies are chosen randomly from given ranges. A new method for the numerical solution of ordinary differential equations at large time intervals has been developed for the computational experiment. The proposed method allowed, on the one hand, to ensure the fulfillment of all conservation laws by a suitable correction of solutions, on the other hand, to use standard methods for the numerical solution of systems of differential equations of low approximation order. Within the framework of this method, the trajectory of a gravitational system in phase space is assembled from parts, the duration of each of which can be macroscopic. The constructed trajectory, generally speaking, is discontinuous, and the points of joining of individual pieces of the trajectory act as branch points. In connection with the latter circumstance, the proposed method, in part, can be attributed to the class of Monte Carlo methods. The general conclusion of a series of computational experiments has shown that gravitational systems of general position with a number of bodies of 3 or more, generally speaking, are unstable. In the framework of the proposed method, special cases of zero-equal angular momentum of a gravitational system with a number of bodies of 3 or more, as well as the problem of motion of two bodies, are specially considered. The case of numerical modeling of the dynamics of the solar system in time is considered separately. From the standpoint of computational experiments based on analytical methods, as well as direct numerical methods of high-order approximation (10 and higher), the stability of the solar system was previously demonstrated at an interval of five billion years or more. Due to the limitations on the available computational resources, the stability of the dynamics of the planets of the solar system within the framework of the proposed method was confirmed for a period of ten million years. With the help of a computational experiment, one of the possible scenarios for the disintegration of the solar systems is also considered.

This article studies a method of constructing a predictive neural network model of a time series based on determining the composition of input variables, constructing a training sample and training itself using the back propagation method. Traditional methods of constructing predictive models of the time series are: the autoregressive model, the moving average model or the autoregressive model — the moving average allows us to approximate the time series by a linear dependence of the current value of the output variable on a number of its previous values. Such a limitation as linearity of dependence leads to significant errors in forecasting.

Mining Technologies using neural network modeling make it possible to approximate the time series by a nonlinear dependence. Moreover, the process of constructing of a neural network model (determining the composition of input variables, the number of layers and the number of neurons in the layers, choosing the activation functions of neurons, determining the optimal values of the neuron link weights) allows us to obtain a predictive model in the form of an analytical nonlinear dependence.

The determination of the composition of input variables of neural network models is one of the key points in the construction of neural network models in various application areas that affect its adequacy. The composition of the input variables is traditionally selected from some physical considerations or by the selection method. In this work it is proposed to use the behavior of the autocorrelation and private autocorrelation functions for the task of determining the composition of the input variables of the predictive neural network model of the time series.

In this work is proposed a method for determining the composition of input variables of neural network models for stationary and non-stationary time series, based on the construction and analysis of autocorrelation functions. Based on the proposed method in the Python programming environment are developed an algorithm and a program, determining the composition of the input variables of the predictive neural network model — the perceptron, as well as building the model itself. The proposed method was experimentally tested using the example of constructing a predictive neural network model of a time series that reflects energy consumption in different regions of the United States, openly published by PJM Interconnection LLC (PJM) — a regional network organization in the United States. This time series is non-stationary and is characterized by the presence of both a trend and seasonality. Prediction of the next values of the time series based on previous values and the constructed neural network model showed high approximation accuracy, which proves the effectiveness of the proposed method.

The paper describes an analytical study of hydrodynamic processes taking place in the course of coolant flow through a fuel assembly of the core of a fast neutron sodium-cooled reactor. Within the framework of the study, a procedure and an analytical model were developed based on program complex FlowVision of computational fluid dynamics, which, using proved simplifications, permits to obtain a coefficient of rod lifting margin of a fuel assembly and to study hydrodynamic characteristics of processes taking place in the course of simulation of different initial events influencing motion of a reactor core fuel assembly.

For analytical justification a fuel assembly model was developed, which is equivalent by hydraulic resistance values and permits not to simulate explicitly a complicated full-scale fuel assembly design, thus, decreasing a number of computational cells in the model and, as a result, reducing computational and time resources.

Hydraulic parameters of the equivalent fuel assembly model in program complex FlowVision were analyzed in two stages. At the first stage, to determine the minimum rod lifting margin coefficient of a fuel assembly, steady-state analyses were performed, where various flowrate values were assigned at the model inlet and forces acting upon the assembly were analyzed. A series of dynamic mode analyses was performed at the second stage. Jump-like pressure increase being the initial event which could occur hypothetically in the fast neutron sodium cooled reactor plant was assigned in these modes. Hydrodynamic parameters and forces acting upon the fuel assembly were determined.

The results of the first stage of the analytical study proved the minimum coefficient of rod lifting margin of a fuel assembly of the fast neutron reactor justified in reactor plant design documentation. As a result of the second stage of the study, conclusions were made on impossibility for the fuel assembly to move at the initial event associated with jump-like pressure increase in the reactor pressure chamber.