All issues

The article focuses on a nonlinear mathematical model that describes the interaction of the different age groups of the employed population. The interactions are treated by analogy with population relationship (competition, discrimination, assistance, oppression, etc). Under interaction of peoples we mean the generalized social and economic mechanisms that cause related changes in the number of employees of different age groups. Three age groups of the employed population are considered. It is young specialists (15–29 years), workers with experience (30–49 years), the employees of pre-retirement and retirement age (50 and older). The estimation of model’s parameters for the southern regions of the Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD) is executed by statistical data. Analysis of model scenarios allows us to conclude the observed number fluctuations of the different ages employees on the background of a stable total employed population may be a consequence of complex interactions between these groups of peoples. Computational experiments with the obtained values of the parameters allowed us to calculate the rate of decline and the aging of the working population and to determine the nature of the interaction between the age groups of employees that are not directly as reflected in the statistics. It was found that in FEFD the employed of 50 years and older are discriminated against by the young workers under 29, employed up to 29 and 30–49 years are in a partnership. It is shown in most developed regions (Primorsky and Khabarovsk Krai) there is “uniform” competition among different age groups of the employed population. For Primorsky Krai we were able to identify the mixing effect dynamics. It is a typical situation for systems in a state of structural adjustment. This effect is reflected in the fact the long cycles of employed population form with a significant decrease in migration inflows of employees 30–49 years. Besides, the change of migration is accompanied by a change of interaction type — from employment discrimination by the oldest of middle generation to discrimination by the middle of older generation. In less developed regions (Amur, Magadan and Jewish Autonomous Regions) there are lower values of migration balance of almost all age groups and discrimination by young workers up 29 years of other age groups and employment discrimination 30–49 years of the older generation.

Studies of the crisis socio-demographic situation in the Russian Far East require not only the use of traditional statistical methods, but also a conceptual analysis of possible development scenarios based on the synergy principles. The article is devoted to the analysis and modeling of the number of employed, unemployed and economically inactive population using nonlinear autonomous differential equations. We studied a basic mathematical model that takes into account the principle of pair interactions, which is a special case of the model for the struggle between conditional information of D. S. Chernavsky. The point estimates for the parameters are found using least squares method adapted for this model. The average approximation error was no more than 5.17%. The calculated parameter values correspond to the unstable focus and the oscillations with increasing amplitude of population number in the asymptotic case, which indicates a gradual increase in disparities between the employed, unemployed and economically inactive population and a collapse of their dynamics. We found that in the parametric space, not far from the inertial scenario, there are domains of blow-up and chaotic regimes complicating the ability to effectively manage. The numerical study showed that a change in only one model parameter (e.g. migration) without complex structural socio-economic changes can only delay the collapse of the dynamics in the long term or leads to the emergence of unpredictable chaotic regimes. We found an additional set of the model parameters corresponding to sustainable dynamics (stable focus) which approximates well the time series of the considered population groups. In the mathematical model, the bifurcation parameters are the outflow rate of the able-bodied population, the fertility (“rejuvenation of the population”), as well as the migration inflow rate of the unemployed. We found that the transition to stable regimes is possible with the simultaneous impact on several parameters which requires a comprehensive set of measures to consolidate the population in the Russian Far East and increase the level of income in terms of compensation for infrastructure sparseness. Further economic and sociological research is required to develop specific state policy measures.