All issues

Migration has a significant impact on the shaping of the demographic structure of the territories population, the state of regional and local labour markets. As a rule, rapid change in the working-age population of any territory due to migration processes results in an imbalance in supply and demand on labour markets and a change in the demographic structure of the population. Migration is also to a large extent a reflection of socio-economic processes taking place in the society. Hence, the issues related to the study of migration factors, the direction, intensity and structure of migration flows, and the prediction of their magnitude are becoming topical issues these days.

Mathematical tools are often used to analyze, predict migration processes and assess their consequences, allowing for essentially accurate modelling of migration processes for different territories on the basis of the available statistical data. In recent years, quite a number of scientific papers on modelling internal and external migration flows using mathematical methods have appeared both in Russia and in foreign countries in recent years. Consequently, there has been a need to systematize the currently most commonly used methods and tools applied in migration modelling to form a coherent picture of the main trends and research directions in this field.

The presented review considers the main approaches to migration modelling and the main components of migration modelling methodology, i. e. stages, methods, models and model classification. Their comparative analysis was also conducted and general recommendations on the choice of mathematical tools for modelling were developed. The review contains two sections: migration modelling methods and migration models. The first section describes the main methods used in the model development process — econometric, cellular automata, system-dynamic, probabilistic, balance, optimization and cluster analysis. Based on the analysis of modern domestic and foreign publications on migration, the most common classes of models — regression, agent-based, simulation, optimization, probabilistic, balance, dynamic and combined — were identified and described. The features, advantages and disadvantages of different types of migration process models were considered.

The paper is devoted to the secondary use of spectrum in telecommunication networks. It is emphasized that one of the solutions to this problem is the use of cognitive radio technologies and dynamic spectrum access for the successful functioning of which a large amount of information is required, including the parameters of base stations and network subscribers. Storage and processing of information should be carried out using a radio environment map, which is a spatio-temporal database of all activity in the network and allows you to determine the frequencies available for use at a given time. The paper presents a two-level model for forming a map of the radio environment of a cellular communication system LTE, in which the local and global levels are highlighted, which is described by the following parameters: a set of frequencies, signal attenuation, signal propagation map, grid step, current time count. The key objects of the model are the base station and the subscriber unit. The main parameters of the base station include: name, identifier, cell coordinates, range number, radiation power, numbers of connected subscriber devices, dedicated resource blocks. For subscriber devices, the following parameters are used: name, identifier, location, current coordinates of the device cell, base station identifier, frequency range, numbers of resource blocks for communication with the station, radiation power, data transmission status, list of numbers of the nearest stations, schedules movement and communication sessions of devices. An algorithm for the implementation of the model is presented, taking into account the scenarios of movement and communication sessions of subscriber devices. A method for calculating a map of the radio environment at a point on a coordinate grid, taking into account losses during the propagation of radio signals from emitting devices, is presented. The software implementation of the model is performed using the MatLab package. The approaches are described that allow to increase the speed of its work. In the simulation, the choice of parameters was carried out taking into account the data of the existing communication systems and the economy of computing resources. The experimental results of the algorithm for the formation of a radio environment map are demonstrated, confirming the correctness of the developed model.

In Russian medicine two radiopharmaceuticals are currently used for radionuclide therapy of bone metastases: ⁸⁹Sr-chloride and ¹⁵³Sm-oxabifor. The first one has many side effects, so its use is limited. The second one is available only in clinics, its transportation to which does not take much time. Currently, the third radiopharmaceutical ¹⁸⁸Re-solerene is undergoing clinical trials. Due to the generator method of obtaining ¹⁸⁸Re, this radiopharmaceutical should become available for use in many regions of our country. Therefore, there is a need for a comparative analysis of the characteristics of these radiopharmaceuticals, including on the basis of mathematical modeling.

The article discusses the features of mathematical modeling the kinetics of osteotropic radiopharmaceutical drugs in the human body with bone metastases. Based on the four-compartment model, a complex of modeling and calculation of pharmacokinetic and dosimetric characteristics of radiopharmaceuticals for radionuclide therapy of bone metastases was developed and tested. Using clinical data, the transport constants of the model were identified and the individual characteristics of Russian radiopharmaceuticals labeled ⁸⁹Sr, 153Sm and ¹⁸⁸Re were calculated (effective half-lives, maximum activity in the compartments and the times of their achievement, absorbed doses to bone tissue and metastases, endosteal bone layer, red bone marrow, blood, kidneys and bladder). The time activity dependencies for all compartments of the model are obtained and analyzed. A comparative analysis of the pharmacokinetics and dosimetry of three radiopharmaceuticals (⁸⁹Sr-chloride, ¹⁵³Sm-oxabiphore, ¹⁸⁸Re-solerene) was carried out.

From a comparative analysis of the pharmacokinetic and dosimetric characteristics of these radiopharmaceutical drugs, it follows that the best of them for widespread use in many regions of our country should be ¹⁸⁸Re-solerene, taking into account the generator method of obtaining ¹⁸⁸Re in a hospital.

The paper presents an analysis of the nonlinear equation of spin wave transport by the method of characteristics. The conclusion of a new mathematical model of spin wave propagation is presented for the solution of which the characteristic is applied. The behavior analysis of the behavior of the real and imaginary parts of the wave and its amplitude is performed. The phase portraits demonstrate the dependence of the desired function on the nonlinearity coefficient. It is established that the real and imaginary parts of the wave oscillate by studying the nature of the evolution of the initial wave profile by the phase plane method. The transition of trajectories from an unstable focus to a limiting cycle, which corresponds to the oscillation of the real and imaginary parts, is shown. For the amplitude of the wave, such a transition is characterized by its amplification or attenuation (depending on the nonlinearity coefficient and the chosen initial conditions) up to a certain threshold value. It is shown that the time of the transition process from amplification (attenuation) to stabilization of the amplitude also depends on the nonlinearity parameter. It was found out that at the interval of amplification of the amplitude of the spin wave, the time of the transition process decreases, and lower amplitude values correspond to higher parameters of nonlinearity.

Rugose spiraling whitefly (RSW) is one of the major pests which affects the coconut trees. It feeds on the tree by sucking up the water content as well as the essential nutrients from leaves. It also forms sooty mold in leaves due to which the process of photosynthesis is inhibited. Biocontrol of pest is harmless for trees and crops. The experimental results in literature reveal that Pseudomallada astur is a potential predator for this pest. We investigate the dynamics of predator, Pseudomallada astur’s interaction with rugose spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus rugioperculatus in coconut trees using a mathematical model. In this system of ordinary differential equation, the pest-predator interaction is modeled using Holling type III functional response. The parametric values are calculated from the experimental results and are tabulated. An approximate analytical solution for the system has been derived. The homotopy analysis method proves to be a suitable method for creating solutions that are valid even for moderate to large parameter values, hence we employ the same to solve this nonlinear model. The $\hbar$-curves, which give the admissible region of $\hbar$, are provided to validate the region of convergence. We have derived the approximate solution at fifth order and stopped at this order since we obtain a more approximate solution in this iteration. Numerical simulation is obtained through MATLAB. The analytical results are compared with numerical simulation and are found to be in good agreement. The biological interpretation of figures implies that the use of a predator reduces the whitefly’s growth to a greater extent.

This work is devoted to the study of the problem of modeling and analyzing complex oscillatory modes, both regular and chaotic, in systems of interacting populations in the presence of random perturbations. As an initial conceptual deterministic model, a Volterra system of three differential equations is considered, which describes the dynamics of prey populations of two competing species and a predator. This model takes into account the following key biological factors: the natural increase in prey, their intraspecific and interspecific competition, the extinction of predators in the absence of prey, the rate of predation by predators, the growth of the predator population due to predation, and the intensity of intraspecific competition in the predator population. The growth rate of the second prey population is used as a bifurcation parameter. At a certain interval of variation of this parameter, the system demonstrates a wide variety of dynamic modes: equilibrium, oscillatory, and chaotic. An important feature of this model is multistability. In this paper, we focus on the study of the parametric zone of tristability, when a stable equilibrium and two limit cycles coexist in the system. Such birhythmicity in the presence of random perturbations generates new dynamic modes that have no analogues in the deterministic case. The aim of the paper is a detailed study of stochastic phenomena caused by random fluctuations in the growth rate of the second population of prey. As a mathematical model of such fluctuations, we consider white Gaussian noise. Using methods of direct numerical modeling of solutions of the corresponding system of stochastic differential equations, the following phenomena have been identified and described: unidirectional stochastic transitions from one cycle to another, trigger mode caused by transitions between cycles, noise-induced transitions from cycles to the equilibrium, corresponding to the extinction of the predator and the second prey population. The paper presents the results of the analysis of these phenomena using the Lyapunov exponents, and identifies the parametric conditions for transitions from order to chaos and from chaos to order. For the analytical study of such noise-induced multi-stage transitions, the technique of stochastic sensitivity functions and the method of confidence regions were applied. The paper shows how this mathematical apparatus allows predicting the intensity of noise, leading to qualitative transformations of the modes of stochastic population dynamics.

The main aim, formulated in the first part of article, is to carry out detailed numerical studies of the chemical, ionization, optical, and temperature characteristics of the lower ionosphere perturbed by powerful radio emission. The brief review of the main experimental and theoretical researches of physical phenomena occurring in the ionosphere when it is heated by high-power high-frequency radio waves from heating facilities is given. The decisive role of the $D$-region of the ionosphere in the absorption of radio beam energy is shown. A detailed analysis of kinetic processes in the disturbed $D$-region, which is the most complex in kinetic terms, has been performed. It is shown that for a complete description of the ionization-chemical and optical characteristics of the disturbed region, it is necessary to take into account more than 70 components, which, according to their main physical content, can be conveniently divided into five groups. A kinetic model is presented to describe changes in the concentrations of components interacting (the total number of reactions is 259). The system of kinetic equations was solved using a semi-implicit numerical method specially adapted to such problems. Based on the proposed structure, a software package was developed in which the algorithm scheme allowed changing both the content of individual program blocks and their number, which made it possible to conduct detailed numerical studies of individual processes in the behavior of the parameters of the perturbed region. The complete numerical algorithm is based on the two-temperature approximation, in which the main attention was paid to the calculation of the electron temperature, since its behavior is determined by inelastic kinetic processes involving electrons. The formulation of the problem is of a rather general nature and makes it possible to calculate the parameters of the disturbed ionosphere in a wide range of powers and frequencies of radio emission. Based on the developed numerical technique, it is possible to study a wide range of phenomena both in the natural and disturbed ionosphere.

Technical carbon (soot) is a product obtained by thermal decomposition (pyrolysis) of hydrocarbons (usually oil) in a stream of heat carrier gas. Technical carbon is widely used as a reinforcing component in the production of rubber and plastic masses. Tire production uses 70% of all carbon produced. In furnace carbon production, the liquid hydrocarbon feedstock is injected into the natural gas combustion product stream through nozzles. The raw material is atomized and vaporized with further pyrolysis. It is important for the raw material to be completely evaporated before the pyrolysis process starts, otherwise coke, that contaminates the product, will be produced. It is impossible to operate without mathematical modeling of the process itself in order to improve the carbon production technology, in particular, to provide the complete evaporation of the raw material prior to the pyrolysis process. Mathematical modelling is the most important way to obtain the most complete and detailed information about the peculiarities of reactor operation.

A three-dimensional mathematical model and calculation method for raw material atomization and evaporation in the thermal gas flow are being developed in the FlowVision software package PC. Water is selected as a raw material to work out the modeling technique. The working substances in the reactor chamber are the combustion products of natural gas. The motion of raw material droplets and evaporation in the gas stream are modeled in the framework of the Eulerian approach of interaction between dispersed and continuous media. The simulation results of raw materials atomization and evaporation in a real reactor for technical carbon production are presented. Numerical method allows to determine an important atomization characteristic: average Sauter diameter. That parameter could be defined from distribution of droplets of raw material at each time of spray forming.

In the last few years, significant progress has been observed in the field of rotating detonation engines for aircrafts. Scientific laboratories around the world conduct both fundamental researches related, for example, to the issues of effective mixing of fuel and oxidizer with the separate supply, and applied development of existing prototypes. The paper provides a brief overview of the main results of the most significant recent computational work on the study of propagation of a onedimensional pulsating gaseous detonation wave in a non-uniform medium. The general trends observed by the authors of these works are noted. In these works, it is shown that the presence of parameter perturbations in front of the wave front can lead to regularization and to resonant amplification of pulsations behind the detonation wave front. Thus, there is an appealing opportunity from a practical point of view to influence the stability of the detonation wave and control it. The aim of the present work is to create an instrument to study the gas-dynamic mechanisms of these effects.

The mathematical model is based on one-dimensional Euler equations supplemented by a one-stage model of the kinetics of chemical reactions. The defining system of equations is written in the shock-attached frame that leads to the need to add a shock-change equations. A method for integrating this equation is proposed, taking into account the change in the density of the medium in front of the wave front. So, the numerical algorithm for the simulation of detonation wave propagation in a non-uniform medium is proposed.

Using the developed algorithm, a numerical study of the propagation of stable detonation in a medium with variable density as carried out. A mode with a relatively small oscillation amplitude is investigated, in which the fluctuations of the parameters behind the detonation wave front occur with the frequency of fluctuations in the density of the medium. It is shown the relationship of the oscillation period with the passage time of the characteristics C₊ and C₀ over the region, which can be conditionally considered an induction zone. The phase shift between the oscillations of the velocity of the detonation wave and the density of the gas before the wave is estimated as the maximum time of passage of the characteristic C₊ through the induction zone.

In this paper, we consider two variants of the concept of sharp minimum for mathematical programming problems with quasiconvex objective function and inequality constraints. It investigated the problem of describing a variant of a simple subgradient method with switching along productive and non-productive steps, for which, on a class of problems with Lipschitz functions, it would be possible to guarantee convergence with the rate of geometric progression to the set of exact solutions or its vicinity. It is important that to implement the proposed method there is no need to know the sharp minimum parameter, which is usually difficult to estimate in practice. To overcome this problem, the authors propose to use a step adjustment procedure similar to that previously proposed by B. T. Polyak. However, in this case, in comparison with the class of problems without constraints, it arises the problem of knowing the exact minimal value of the objective function. The paper describes the conditions for the inexactness of this information, which make it possible to preserve convergence with the rate of geometric progression in the vicinity of the set of minimum points of the problem. Two analogs of the concept of a sharp minimum for problems with inequality constraints are considered. In the first one, the problem of approximation to the exact solution arises only to a pre-selected level of accuracy, for this, it is considered the case when the minimal value of the objective function is unknown; instead, it is given some approximation of this value. We describe conditions on the inexact minimal value of the objective function, under which convergence to the vicinity of the desired set of points with a rate of geometric progression is still preserved. The second considered variant of the sharp minimum does not depend on the desired accuracy of the problem. For this, we propose a slightly different way of checking whether the step is productive, which allows us to guarantee the convergence of the method to the exact solution with the rate of geometric progression in the case of exact information. Convergence estimates are proved under conditions of weak convexity of the constraints and some restrictions on the choice of the initial point, and a corollary is formulated for the convex case when the need for an additional assumption on the choice of the initial point disappears. For both approaches, it has been proven that the distance from the current point to the set of solutions decreases with increasing number of iterations. This, in particular, makes it possible to limit the requirements for the properties of the used functions (Lipschitz-continuous, sharp minimum) only for a bounded set. Some computational experiments are performed, including for the truss topology design problem.