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The study of the mechanism for the development of mass panic in view of its extreme importance and social danger is an important scientific task. Available information about the mechanism of her development is based mainly on the work of psychologists and belongs to the category of inaccurate. Therefore, the theory of fuzzy sets has been chosen as a tool for developing a mathematical model of a person's susceptibility to panic situations. As a result of the study, an fuzzy model was developed, consisting of blocks: “Fuzzyfication”, where the degree of belonging of the values of the input parameters to fuzzy sets is calculated; “Inference” where, based on the degree of belonging of the input parameters, the resulting function of belonging of the output value to an odd model is calculated; “Defuzzyfication”, where using the center of gravity method, the only quantitative value of the output variable characterizing a person's susceptibility to panic situations is determined Since the real quantitative values for linguistic variables mental properties of a person are unknown, then to assess the quality of the developed model, without endangering people, it is not possible. Therefore, the quality of the results of fuzzy modeling was estimated by the calculated value of the determination coefficient R2, which showed that the developed fuzzy model belongs to the category of good quality models $(R^2 = 0.93)$, which confirms the legitimacy of the assumptions made during her development. In accordance with to the results of the simulation, human susceptibility to panic situations for sanguinics and cholerics can be attributed to “increased” (0.88), and for phlegmatics and melancholics — to “moderate” (0.38). This means that cholerics and sanguinics can become epicenters of panic and the initiators of stampede, and phlegmatics and melancholics — obstacles to evacuation routes. What should be taken into account when developing effective evacuation measures, the main task of which is to quickly and safely evacuate people from adverse conditions. In the approved methods, the calculation of normative values of safety parameters is based on simplified analytical models of human flow movement, because a large number of factors have to be taken into account, some of which are quantitatively uncertain. The obtained result in the form of quantitative estimates of a person's susceptibility to panic situations will increase the accuracy of calculations.

The article analyzes empirical data on the long-term demographic and economic dynamics of the countries of the world for the period from the beginning of the 19th century to the present. Population and GDP of a number of countries of the world for the period 1500–2016 were selected as indicators characterizing the long-term demographic and economic dynamics of the countries of the world. Countries were chosen in such a way that they included representatives with different levels of development (developed and developing countries), as well as countries from different regions of the world (North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa). A specially developed mathematical model was used for modeling and data processing. The presented model is an autonomous system of differential equations that describes the processes of socio-economic modernization, including the process of transition from an agrarian society to an industrial and post-industrial one. The model contains the idea that the process of modernization begins with the emergence of an innovative sector in a traditional society, developing on the basis of new technologies. The population is gradually moving from the traditional sector to the innovation sector. Modernization is completed when most of the population moves to the innovation sector.

Statistical methods of data processing and Big Data methods, including hierarchical clustering were used. Using the developed algorithm based on the random descent method, the parameters of the model were identified and verified on the basis of empirical series, and the model was tested using statistical data reflecting the changes observed in developed and developing countries during the period of modernization taking place over the past centuries. Testing the model has demonstrated its high quality — the deviations of the calculated curves from statistical data are usually small and occur during periods of wars and economic crises. Thus, the analysis of statistical data on the long-term demographic and economic dynamics of the countries of the world made it possible to determine general patterns and formalize them in the form of a mathematical model. The model will be used to forecast demographic and economic dynamics in different countries of the world.

A mass congestion of people always represents a potential danger and threat for their lives. In addition, every year in the world a very large number of people die because of the crush, the main cause of which is mass panic. Therefore, the study of the phenomenon of mass panic in view of her extreme social danger is an important scientific task. Available information, about the processes of her occurrence and spread refers to the category inaccurate. Therefore, the theory of fuzzy sets has been chosen as a tool for developing a mathematical model of the mechanism of transmitting panic state among people with various temperament species.

When developing an fuzzy model, it was assumed that panic, from the epicenter of the shocking stimulus, spreads among people according to the wave principle, passing at different frequencies through different environments (types of human temperament), and is determined by the speed and intensity of the circular reaction of the mechanism of transmitting panic state among people. Therefore, the developed fuzzy model, along with two inputs, has two outputs — the speed and intensity of the circular reaction. In the block «Fuzzyfication», the degrees of membership of the numerical values of the input parameters to fuzzy sets are calculated. The «Inference» block at the input receives degrees of belonging for each input parameter and at the output determines the resulting function of belonging the speed of the circular reaction and her derivative, which is a function of belonging for the intensity of the circular reaction. In the «Defuzzyfication» block, using the center of gravity method, a quantitative value is determined for each output parameter. The quality assessment of the developed fuzzy model, carried out by calculating of the determination coefficient, showed that the developed mathematical model belongs to the category of good quality models.

The result obtained in the form of quantitative assessments of the circular reaction makes it possible to improve the quality of understanding of the mental processes occurring during the transmission of the panic state among people. In addition, this makes it possible to improve existing and develop new models of chaotic humans behaviors. Which are designed to develop effective solutions in crisis situations, aimed at full or partial prevention of the spread of mass panic, leading to the emergence of panic flight and the appearance of human casualties.

The article is devoted to first-order adaptive methods for optimization problems with relatively strongly convex functionals. The concept of relatively strong convexity significantly extends the classical concept of convexity by replacing the Euclidean norm in the definition by the distance in a more general sense (more precisely, by Bregman’s divergence). An important feature of the considered classes of problems is the reduced requirements concerting the level of smoothness of objective functionals. More precisely, we consider relatively smooth and relatively Lipschitz-continuous objective functionals, which allows us to apply the proposed techniques for solving many applied problems, such as the intersection of the ellipsoids problem (IEP), the Support Vector Machine (SVM) for a binary classification problem, etc. If the objective functional is convex, the condition of relatively strong convexity can be satisfied using the problem regularization. In this work, we propose adaptive gradient-type methods for optimization problems with relatively strongly convex and relatively Lipschitzcontinuous functionals for the first time. Further, we propose universal methods for relatively strongly convex optimization problems. This technique is based on introducing an artificial inaccuracy into the optimization model, so the proposed methods can be applied both to the case of relatively smooth and relatively Lipschitz-continuous functionals. Additionally, we demonstrate the optimality of the proposed universal gradient-type methods up to the multiplication by a constant for both classes of relatively strongly convex problems. Also, we show how to apply the technique of restarts of the mirror descent algorithm to solve relatively Lipschitz-continuous optimization problems. Moreover, we prove the optimal estimate of the rate of convergence of such a technique. Also, we present the results of numerical experiments to compare the performance of the proposed methods.

The paper considers the problem of transverse impact on a thin preloaded fiber. The commonly accepted theory of transverse impact on a thin fiber is based on the classical works of Rakhmatulin and Smith. The simple relations obtained from the Rakhmatulin – Smith theory are widely used in engineering practice. However, there are numerous evidences that experimental results may differ significantly from estimations based on these relations. A brief overview of the factors that cause the differences is given in this article.

This paper focuses on the shear wave velocity, as it is the only feature that can be directly observed and measured using high-speed cameras or similar methods. The influence of the fiber preload on the wave speed is considered. This factor is important, since it inevitably arises in the experimental results. The reliable fastening and precise positioning of the fiber during the experiments requires its preload. This work shows that the preload significantly affects the shear wave velocity in the impacted fiber.

Numerical calculations were performed for Kevlar 29 and Spectra 1000 yarns. Shear wave velocities are obtained for different levels of initial tension. A direct comparison of numerical results and analytical estimations with experimental data is presented. The speed of the transverse wave in free and preloaded fibers differed by a factor of two for the setup parameters considered. This fact demonstrates that measurements based on high-speed imaging and analysis of the observed shear waves should take into account the preload of the fibers.

This paper proposes a formula for a quick estimation of the shear wave velocity in preloaded fibers. The formula is obtained from the basic relations of the Rakhmatulin – Smith theory under the assumption of a large initial deformation of the fiber. The formula can give significantly better results than the classical approximation, this fact is demonstrated using the data for preloaded Kevlar 29 and Spectra 1000. The paper also shows that direct numerical calculation has better corresponding with the experimental data than any of the considered analytical estimations.

Distributed saddle point problems (SPPs) have numerous applications in optimization, matrix games and machine learning. For example, the training of generated adversarial networks is represented as a min-max optimization problem, and training regularized linear models can be reformulated as an SPP as well. This paper studies distributed nonsmooth SPPs with Lipschitz-continuous objective functions. The objective function is represented as a sum of several components that are distributed between groups of computational nodes. The nodes, or agents, exchange information through some communication network that may be centralized or decentralized. A centralized network has a universal information aggregator (a server, or master node) that directly communicates to each of the agents and therefore can coordinate the optimization process. In a decentralized network, all the nodes are equal, the server node is not present, and each agent only communicates to its immediate neighbors.

We assume that each of the nodes locally holds its objective and can compute its value at given points, i. e. has access to zero-order oracle. Zero-order information is used when the gradient of the function is costly, not possible to compute or when the function is not differentiable. For example, in reinforcement learning one needs to generate a trajectory to evaluate the current policy. This policy evaluation process can be interpreted as the computation of the function value. We propose an approach that uses a smoothing technique, i. e., applies a first-order method to the smoothed version of the initial function. It can be shown that the stochastic gradient of the smoothed function can be viewed as a random two-point gradient approximation of the initial function. Smoothing approaches have been studied for distributed zero-order minimization, and our paper generalizes the smoothing technique on SPPs.

The paper proposes a set of fairly simple analysis algorithms that can be used to analyze a wide range of protein-protein interactions. In this work, we jointly use the methods of Brownian and molecular dynamics to describe the process of formation of a complex of plastocyanin and cytochrome f proteins in higher plants. In the diffusion-collision complex, two clusters of structures were revealed, the transition between which is possible with the preservation of the position of the center of mass of the molecules and is accompanied only by a rotation of plastocyanin by 134 degrees. The first and second clusters of structures of collisional complexes differ in that in the first cluster with a positively charged region near the small domain of cytochrome f, only the “lower” plastocyanin region contacts, while in the second cluster, both negatively charged regions. The “upper” negatively charged region of plastocyanin in the first cluster is in contact with the amino acid residue of lysine K122. When the final complex is formed, the plastocyanin molecule rotates by 69 degrees around an axis passing through both areas of electrostatic contact. With this rotation, water is displaced from the regions located near the cofactors of the molecules and formed by hydrophobic amino acid residues. This leads to the appearance of hydrophobic contacts, a decrease in the distance between the cofactors to a distance of less than 1.5 nm, and further stabilization of the complex in a position suitable for electron transfer. Characteristics such as contact matrices, rotation axes during the transition between states, and graphs of changes in the number of contacts during the modeling process make it possible to determine the key amino acid residues involved in the formation of the complex and to reveal the physicochemical mechanisms underlying this process.

Despite the widespread use of cancer chemotherapy drugs, the molecular mechanisms of action of many of them remain unclear. Some of these drugs, such as taxol, are known to affect the dynamics of microtubule assembly and stop the process of cell division in prophase-prometaphase. Recently, new spatial structures of microtubules and individual tubulin oligomers have emerged associated with various regulatory proteins and cancer chemotherapy drugs. However, knowledge of the spatial structure in itself does not provide information about the mechanism of action of drugs.

In this work, we applied the molecular dynamics method to study the behavior of taxol-bound tubulin oligomers and used our previously developed method for analyzing the conformation of tubulin protofilaments, based on the calculation of modified Euler angles. Recent structures of microtubule fragments have demonstrated that tubulin protofilaments bend not in the radial direction, as many researchers assume, but at an angle of approximately 45◦ from the radial direction. However, in the presence of taxol, the bending direction shifts closer to the radial direction. There was no significant difference between the mean bending and torsion angles of the studied tubulin structures when bound to the various natural regulatory ligands, guanosine triphosphate and guanosine diphosphate. The intra-dimer bending angle was found to be greater than the interdimer bending angle in all analyzed trajectories. This indicates that the bulk of the deformation energy is stored within the dimeric tubulin subunits and not between them. Analysis of the structures of the latest generation of tubulins indicated that the presence of taxol in the tubulin beta subunit pocket allosterically reduces the torsional rigidity of the tubulin oligomer, which could explain the underlying mechanism of taxol’s effect on microtubule dynamics. Indeed, a decrease in torsional rigidity makes it possible to maintain lateral connections between protofilaments, and therefore should lead to the stabilization of microtubules, which is what is observed in experiments. The results of the work shed light on the phenomenon of dynamic instability of microtubules and allow to come closer to understanding the molecular mechanisms of cell division.

Images of surface topography of ultrathin magnetic films have been used for Monte Carlo simulations in the framework of the ferromagnetic Ising model to study the hysteresis and thermal properties of nanomaterials. For high performance calculations was used super-scalable parallel algorithm for the finding of the equilibrium configuration. The changing of a distribution of spins on the surface during the reversal of the magnetization and the dynamics of nanodomain structure of thin magnetic films under the influence of changing external magnetic field was investigated.

The article examines the impact of non-market actions of participants in oligopolistic markets on the market structure. The following actions of one of the market participants aimed at increasing its market share are analyzed: 1) price manipulation; 2) blocking investments of stronger oligopolists; 3) destruction of produced products and capacities of competitors. Linear dynamic games with a quadratic criterion are used to model the strategies of oligopolists. The expediency of their use is due to the possibility of both an adequate description of the evolution of markets and the implementation of two mutually complementary approaches to determining the strategies of oligopolists: 1) based on the representation of models in the state space and the solution of generalized Riccati equations; 2) based on the application of operational calculus methods (in the frequency domain) which owns the visibility necessary for economic analysis.

The article shows the equivalence of approaches to solving the problem with maximin criteria of oligopolists in the state space and in the frequency domain. The results of calculations are considered in relation to a duopoly, with indicators close to one of the duopolies in the microelectronic industry of the world. The second duopolist is less effective from the standpoint of costs, though more mobile. Its goal is to increase its market share by implementing the non-market methods listed above.

Calculations carried out with help of the game model, made it possible to construct dependencies that characterize the relationship between the relative increase in production volumes over a 25-year period of weak and strong duopolists under price manipulation. Constructed dependencies show that an increase in the price for the accepted linear demand function leads to a very small increase in the production of a strong duopolist, but, simultaneously, to a significant increase in this indicator for a weak one.

Calculations carried out with use of the other variants of the model, show that blocking investments, as well as destroying the products of a strong duopolist, leads to more significant increase in the production of marketable products for a weak duopolist than to a decrease in this indicator for a strong one.