All issues

The article deals with the development of a methodological approach to forecasting and modeling the socioeconomic consequences of viral epidemics in conditions of heterogeneous economic development of territorial systems. The relevance of the research stems from the need for rapid mechanisms of public management and stabilization of adverse epidemiological situation, taking into account the spatial heterogeneity of the spread of COVID-19, accompanied by a concentration of infection in large metropolitan areas and territories with high economic activity. The aim of the work is to substantiate a methodology to assess the spatial heterogeneity of the spread of coronavirus infection, find poles of its growth, emerging spatial clusters and zones of their influence with the assessment of inter-territorial relationships, as well as simulate the effects of worsening epidemiological situation on the dynamics of economic development of regional systems. The peculiarity of the developed approach is the spatial clustering of regional systems by the level of COVID-19 incidence, conducted using global and local spatial autocorrelation indices, various spatial weight matrices, and L.Anselin mutual influence matrix based on the statistical information of the Russian Federal State Statistics Service. The study revealed a spatial cluster characterized by high levels of infection with COVID-19 with a strong zone of influence and stable interregional relationships with surrounding regions, as well as formed growth poles which are potential poles of further spread of coronavirus infection. Regression analysis using panel data not only confirmed the impact of COVID-19 incidence on the average number of employees in enterprises, the level of average monthly nominal wages, but also allowed to form a model for scenario prediction of the consequences of the spread of coronavirus infection. The results of this study can be used to form mechanisms to contain the coronavirus infection and stabilize socio-economic at macroeconomic and regional level and restore the economy of territorial systems, depending on the depth of the spread of infection and the level of economic damage caused.

Execution or violation of the principle of competitive exclusion in communities is the subject of many studies. The principle of competitive exclusion means that coexistence of species in community is impossible if the number of species exceeds the number of controlling mutually independent factors. At that time there are many examples displaying the violations of this principle in the natural systems. The explanations for this paradox vary from inexact identification of the set of factors to various types of spatial and temporal heterogeneities. One of the factors breaking the principle of competitive exclusion is intraspecific competition. This study holds the model of community with two species and one influencing factor with density-dependent mortality and spatial heterogeneity. For such models possibility of the existence of stable equilibrium is proved in case of spatial homogeneity and negative effect of the species on the factor. Our purpose is analysis of possible variants of dynamics of the system with spatial heterogeneity under the various directions of the species effect on the influencing factor. Numerical analysis showed that there is stable coexistence of the species agreed with homogenous spatial distributions of the species if the species effects on the influencing factor are negative. Density-dependent mortality and spatial heterogeneity lead to violation of the principle of competitive exclusion when equilibriums are Turing unstable. In this case stable spatial heterogeneous patterns can arise. It is shown that Turing instability is possible if at least one of the species effects is positive. Model nonlinearity and spatial heterogeneity cause violation of the principle of competitive exclusion in terms of both stable spatial homogenous states and quasistable spatial heterogeneous patterns.

The paper deals with a prey-predator model, which describes the spatiotemporal dynamics of plankton community and the nutrients. The system is described by reaction-diffusion-advection equations in a onedimensional vertical column of water in the surface layer. Advective term of the predator equation represents the vertical movements of zooplankton with velocity, which is assumed to be proportional to the gradient of phytoplankton density. This study aimed to determine the conditions under which these movements (taxis) lead to the spatially heterogeneous structures generated by the system. Assuming diffusion coefficients of all model components to be equal the instability of the system in the vicinity of stationary homogeneous state with respect to small inhomogeneous perturbations is analyzed.

Necessary conditions for the flow-induced instability were obtained through linear stability analysis. Depending on the local kinetics parameters, increasing the taxis rate leads to Turing or wave instability. This fact is in good agreement with conditions for the emergence of spatial and spatiotemporal patterns in a minimal phytoplankton–zooplankton model after flow-induced instabilities derived by other authors. This mechanism of generating patchiness is more general than the Turing mechanism, which depends on strong conditions on the diffusion coefficients.

While the taxis exceeding a certain critical value, the wave number corresponding to the fastest growing mode remains unchanged. This value determines the type of spatial structure. In support of obtained results, the paper presents the spatiotemporal dynamics of the model components demonstrating Turing-type pattern and standing wave pattern.

A three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic model to describe the spatial patterns of wind and turbulence characteristics in the atmospheric surface layer over inhomogeneous vegetation cover is presented. To describe the interaction of air flow with vegetation the theory of contrast structures is used. The numerical experiments provided by a developed model to assess the impact of small clear-cutting on wind and turbulent regime in the atmospheric surface layer showed a significant influence of heterogeneous vegetation on the wind field and the turbulent exchange processes between the land surface and the atmosphere. Obtained results give a reasonable agreement with field experimental data and results of numerical experiments provided using alternative models.

The spatiotemporal dynamics of a three-component model for food web is considered. The model describes the interactions among resource, prey and predator that consumes both species. In a previous work, the author analyzed the model without taking into account spatial heterogeneity. This study continues the model study of the community considering the diffusion of individuals, as well as directed movements of the predator. It is assumed that the predator responds to the spatial change in the resource and prey density by occupying areas where species density is higher or avoiding them. Directed predator movement is described by the advection term, where velocity is proportional to the gradient of resource and prey density. The system is considered on a one-dimensional domain with zero-flux conditions as boundary ones. The spatiotemporal dynamics produced by model is determined by the system stability in the vicinity of stationary homogeneous state with respect to small inhomogeneous perturbations. The paper analyzes the possibility of wave instability leading to the emergence of autowaves and Turing instability, as a result of which stationary patterns are formed. Sufficient conditions for the existence of both types of instability are obtained. The influence of local kinetic parameters on the spatial structure formation was analyzed. It was shown that only Turing instability is possible when taxis on the resource is positive, but with a negative taxis, both types of instability are possible. The numerical solution of the system was found by using method of lines (MOL) with the numerical integration of ODE system by means of splitting techniques. The spatiotemporal dynamics of the system is presented in several variants, realizing one of the instability types. In the case of a positive taxis on the prey, both autowave and stationary structures are formed in smaller regions, with an increase in the region size, Turing structures are not formed. For negative taxis on the prey, stationary patterns is observed in both regions, while periodic structures appear only in larger areas.