Результаты поиска по 'coupled point process intensity model':
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  1. Lyubushin A.A., Rodionov E.A.
    The influence of solar flares on the release of seismic energy
    Computer Research and Modeling, 2025, v. 17, no. 4, pp. 567-581

    The influence of solar activity on various processes on Earth has long been the subject of close study, which resulted in the appearance of the term “space weather”. The most striking manifestation of solar activity are the so-called “solar flares”, which are explosive releases of energy in the solar atmosphere, resulting in a flow of photons and charged particles reaching the Earth with a slight delay. After two or three days, a plasma flow reaches the Earth. Thus, a solar flare is an event stretched out in time for several days. The impact of solar flares on human health and the technosphere is a popular subject for discussion and scientific research. This article provides a quantitative assessment of the trigger effect of solar flares on the release of energy as a result of seismic events. The article provides an estimate in the form of a “percentage” of the released seismic energy of the trigger effect of solar flares on the release of seismic energy worldwide and in 8 areas of the Pacific Fire Ring. The initial data are a time series of solar flares from July 31, 1996 to the end of 2024. The time points of the greatest local extremes of solar flare intensity and released seismic energy were studied in successive time intervals of 1 day. For each pair of time sequences in sliding time windows, the “lead measures” of each time sequence relative to the other were estimated using a parametric model of the intensity of interacting point processes. The difference between the “direct” lead measure of the time points of local extremes of solar flare intensity relative to the moments of maximum released seismic energy and the “reverse” lead measure was calculated. The average value of the difference in lead measures provides an estimate of the share of the intensity of seismic events for which solar flares are a trigger.

    Keywords: space weather, solar activity, seismic process, coupled point process intensity model, likelihood function.

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