All issues

Certifying a transport airplane for the flights under icing conditions requires calculations aimed at definition of the dimensions and shapes of the ice bodies formed on the airplane surfaces. Up to date, software developed in Russia for simulation of ice accretion, which would be authorized by Russian certifying supervisory authority, is absent. This paper describes methodology IceVision recently developed in Russia on the basis of software FlowVision for calculations of ice accretion on airplane surfaces.

The main difference of methodology IceVision from the other approaches, known from literature, consists in using technology Volume Of Fluid (VOF — volume of fluid in cell) for tracking the surface of growing ice body. The methodology assumes solving a time-depended problem of continuous grows of ice body in the Euler formulation. The ice is explicitly present in the computational domain. The energy equation is integrated inside the ice body. In the other approaches, changing the ice shape is taken into account by means of modifying the aerodynamic surface and using Lagrangian mesh. In doing so, the heat transfer into ice is allowed for by an empirical model.

The implemented mathematical model provides capability to simulate formation of rime (dry) and glaze (wet) ice. It automatically identifies zones of rime and glaze ice. In a rime (dry) ice zone, the temperature of the contact surface between air and ice is calculated with account of ice sublimation and heat conduction inside the ice. In a glaze (wet) ice zone, the flow of the water film over the ice surface is allowed for. The film freezes due to evaporation and heat transfer inside the air and the ice. Methodology IceVision allows for separation of the film. For simulation of the two-phase flow of the air and droplets, a multi-speed model is used within the Euler approach. Methodology IceVision allows for size distribution of droplets. The computational algorithm takes account of essentially different time scales for the physical processes proceeding in the course of ice accretion, viz., air-droplets flow, water flow, and ice growth. Numerical solutions of validation test problems demonstrate efficiency of methodology IceVision and reliability of FlowVision results.

In this work, parallel method for solving single-phase flow problems in a fractured porous media is considered. Method is based on the representation of fractures by surfaces embedded into the computational mesh, and known as the embedded discrete fracture model. Porous medium and fractures are represented as two independent continua within the model framework. A distinctive feature of the considered approach is that fractures do not modify the computational grid, while an additional degree of freedom is introduced for each cell intersected by the fracture. Discretization of fluxes between fractures and porous medium continua uses the pre-calculated intersection characteristics of fracture surfaces with a three-dimensional computational grid. The discretization of fluxes inside a porous medium does not depend on flows between continua. This allows the model to be integrated into existing multiphase flow simulators in porous reservoirs, while accurately describing flow behaviour near fractures.

Previously, the author proposed monotonic modifications of the model using nonlinear finite-volume schemes for the discretization of the fluxes inside the porous medium: a monotonic two-point scheme or a compact multi-point scheme with a discrete maximum principle. It was proved that the discrete solution of the obtained nonlinear problem preserves non-negativity or satisfies the discrete maximum principle, depending on the choice of the discretization scheme.

This work is a continuation of previous studies. The previously proposed monotonic modification of the model was parallelized using the INMOST open-source software platform for parallel numerical modelling. We used such features of the INMOST as a balanced grid distribution among processors, scalable methods for solving sparse distributed systems of linear equations, and others. Parallel efficiency was demonstrated experimentally.

The paper formulates a mathematical model for hydroelastic oscillations of a plate resting on a nonlinear hardening elastic foundation and interacting with a pulsating fluid layer. The main feature of the proposed model, unlike the wellknown ones, is the joint consideration of the elastic properties of the plate, the nonlinearity of elastic foundation, as well as the dissipative properties of the fluid and the inertia of its motion. The model is represented by a system of equations for a twodimensional hydroelasticity problem including dynamics equation of Kirchhoff’s plate resting on the elastic foundation with hardening cubic nonlinearity, Navier – Stokes equations, and continuity equation. This system is supplemented by boundary conditions for plate deflections and fluid pressure at plate ends, as well as for fluid velocities at the bounding walls. The model was investigated by perturbation method with subsequent use of iteration method for the equations of thin layer of viscous fluid. As a result, the fluid pressure distribution at the plate surface was obtained and the transition to an integrodifferential equation describing bending hydroelastic oscillations of the plate is performed. This equation is solved by the Bubnov –Galerkin method using the harmonic balance method to determine the primary hydroelastic response of the plate and phase response due to the given harmonic law of fluid pressure pulsation at plate ends. It is shown that the original problem can be reduced to the study of the generalized Duffing equation, in which the coefficients at inertial, dissipative and stiffness terms are determined by the physical and mechanical parameters of the original system. The primary hydroelastic response and phases response for the plate are found. The numerical study of these responses is performed for the cases of considering the inertia of fluid motion and the creeping fluid motion for the nonlinear and linearly elastic foundation of the plate. The results of the calculations showed the need to jointly consider the viscosity and inertia of the fluid motion together with the elastic properties of the plate and its foundation, both for nonlinear and linear vibrations of the plate.

The paper presents a review of recent developments of hybrid discrete-continuous models in cell population dynamics. Such models are widely used in the biological modelling. Cells are considered as individual objects which can divide, die by apoptosis, differentiate and move under external forces. In the simplest representation cells are considered as soft spheres, and their motion is described by Newton’s second law for their centers. In a more complete representation, cell geometry and structure can be taken into account. Cell fate is determined by concentrations of intra-cellular substances and by various substances in the extracellular matrix, such as nutrients, hormones, growth factors. Intra-cellular regulatory networks are described by ordinary differential equations while extracellular species by partial differential equations. We illustrate the application of this approach with some examples including bacteria filament and tumor growth. These examples are followed by more detailed studies of erythropoiesis and immune response. Erythrocytes are produced in the bone marrow in small cellular units called erythroblastic islands. Each island is formed by a central macrophage surrounded by erythroid progenitors in different stages of maturity. Their choice between self-renewal, differentiation and apoptosis is determined by the ERK/Fas regulation and by a growth factor produced by the macrophage. Normal functioning of erythropoiesis can be compromised by the development of multiple myeloma, a malignant blood disorder which leads to a destruction of erythroblastic islands and to sever anemia. The last part of the work is devoted to the applications of hybrid models to study immune response and the development of viral infection. A two-scale model describing processes in a lymph node and other organs including the blood compartment is presented.

The paper presents a mathematical model that describes the process of obtaining biogas from livestock waste. This model describes the processes occurring in a biogas plant for mesophilic and thermophilic media, as well as for continuous and periodic modes of substrate inflow. The values of the coefficients of this model found earlier for the periodic mode, obtained by solving the problem of model identification from experimental data using a genetic algorithm, are given.

For the model of methanogenesis, an optimal control problem is formulated in the form of a Lagrange problem, whose criterial functionality is the output of biogas over a certain period of time. The controlling parameter of the task is the rate of substrate entry into the biogas plant. An algorithm for solving this problem is proposed, based on the numerical implementation of the Pontryagin maximum principle. In this case, a hybrid genetic algorithm with an additional search in the vicinity of the best solution using the method of conjugate gradients was used as an optimization method. This numerical method for solving an optimal control problem is universal and applicable to a wide class of mathematical models.

In the course of the study, various modes of submission of the substrate to the digesters, temperature environments and types of raw materials were analyzed. It is shown that the rate of biogas production in the continuous feed mode is 1.4–1.9 times higher in the mesophilic medium (1.9–3.2 in the thermophilic medium) than in the periodic mode over the period of complete fermentation, which is associated with a higher feed rate of the substrate and a greater concentration of nutrients in the substrate. However, the yield of biogas during the period of complete fermentation with a periodic mode is twice as high as the output over the period of a complete change of the substrate in the methane tank at a continuous mode, which means incomplete processing of the substrate in the second case. The rate of biogas formation for a thermophilic medium in continuous mode and the optimal rate of supply of raw materials is three times higher than for a mesophilic medium. Comparison of biogas output for various types of raw materials shows that the highest biogas output is observed for waste poultry farms, the least — for cattle farms waste, which is associated with the nutrient content in a unit of substrate of each type.

The article deals with the problem of a distributed system operation reliability. The system core is an open integration platform that provides interaction of varied software for modeling gas transportation. Some of them provide an access through thin clients on the cloud technology “software as a service”. Mathematical models of operation, transmission and computing are to ensure the operation of an automated dispatching system for oil and gas transportation. The paper presents a system solution based on the theory of Markov random processes and considers the stable operation stage. The stationary operation mode of the Markov chain with continuous time and discrete states is described by a system of Chapman–Kolmogorov equations with respect to the average numbers (mathematical expectations) of the objects in certain states. The objects of research are both system elements that are present in a large number – thin clients and computing modules, and individual ones – a server, a network manager (message broker). Together, they are interacting Markov random processes. The interaction is determined by the fact that the transition probabilities in one group of elements depend on the average numbers of other elements groups.

The authors propose a multi-criteria dispersion model of risk assessment for such systems (both in the broad and narrow sense, in accordance with the IEC standard). The risk is the standard deviation of estimated object parameter from its average value. The dispersion risk model makes possible to define optimality criteria and whole system functioning risks. In particular, for a thin client, the following is calculated: the loss profit risk, the total risk of losses due to non-productive element states, and the total risk of all system states losses.

Finally the paper proposes compromise schemes for solving the multi-criteria problem of choosing the optimal operation strategy based on the selected set of compromise criteria.

An approximate mathematical model of blood flow in an axisymmetric blood vessel is studied. Such a vessel is understood as an infinitely long circular cylinder, the walls of which consist of elastic rings. Blood is considered as an incompressible fluid flowing in this cylinder. Increased pressure causes radially symmetrical stretching of the elastic rings. Following J. Lamb, the rings are located close to each other so that liquid does not flow between them. To mentally realize this, it is enough to assume that the rings are covered with an impenetrable film that does not have elastic properties. Only rings have elasticity. The considered model of blood flow in a blood vessel consists of three equations: the continuity equation, the law of conservation of momentum and the equation of state. An approximate procedure for reducing the equations under consideration to the Korteweg – de Vries (KdV) equation is considered, which was not fully considered by J. Lamb, only to establish the dependence of the coefficients of the KdV equation on the physical parameters of the considered model of incompressible fluid flow in an axisymmetric vessel. From the KdV equation, by a standard transition to traveling waves, ODEs of the third, second and first orders are obtained, respectively. Depending on the different cases of arrangement of the three stationary solutions of the first-order ODE, a cnoidal wave and a soliton are standardly obtained. The main attention is paid to an unbounded periodic solution, which we call a degenerate cnoidal wave. Mathematically, cnoidal waves are described by elliptic integrals with parameters defining amplitudes and periods. Soliton and degenerate cnoidal wave are described by elementary functions. The hemodynamic meaning of these types of decisions is indicated. Due to the fact that the sets of solutions to first-, second- and third-order ODEs do not coincide, it has been established that the Cauchy problem for second- and third-order ODEs can be specified at all points, and for first-order ODEs only at points of growth or decrease. The Cauchy problem for a first-order ODE cannot be specified at extremum points due to the violation of the Lipschitz condition. The degeneration of the cnoidal wave into a degenerate cnoidal wave, which can lead to rupture of the vessel walls, is numerically illustrated. The table below describes two modes of approach of a cnoidal wave to a degenerate cnoidal wave.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused increased interest in mathematical models of the epidemic process, since only statistical analysis of morbidity does not allow medium-term forecasting in a rapidly changing situation.

Among the specific features of COVID-19 that need to be taken into account in mathematical models are the heterogeneity of the pathogen, repeated changes in the dominant variant of SARS-CoV-2, and the relative short duration of post-infectious immunity.

In this regard, solutions to a system of differential equations for a SIR class model with a heterogeneous duration of post-infectious immunity were analytically studied, and numerical calculations were carried out for the dynamics of the system with an average duration of post-infectious immunity of the order of a year.

For a SIR class model with a heterogeneous duration of post-infectious immunity, it was proven that any solution can be continued indefinitely in time in a positive direction without leaving the domain of definition of the system.

For the contact number $R_0 \leqslant 1$, all solutions tend to a single trivial stationary solution with a zero share of infected people, and for $R_0 > 1$, in addition to the trivial solution, there is also a non-trivial stationary solution with non-zero shares of infected and susceptible people. The existence and uniqueness of a non-trivial stationary solution for $R_0 > 1$ was proven, and it was also proven that it is a global attractor.

Also, for several variants of heterogeneity, the eigenvalues of the rate of exponential convergence of small deviations from a nontrivial stationary solution were calculated.

It was found that for contact number values corresponding to COVID-19, the phase trajectory has the form of a twisting spiral with a period length of the order of a year.

This corresponds to the real dynamics of the incidence of COVID-19, in which, after several months of increasing incidence, a period of falling begins. At the same time, a second wave of incidence of a smaller amplitude, as predicted by the model, was not observed, since during 2020–2023, approximately every six months, a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 appeared, which was more infectious than the previous one, as a result of which the new variant replaced the previous one and became dominant.

The course and outcome of the battle is largely dependent on the morale of the troops, characterized by the percentage of loss in killed and wounded, in which the troops still continue to fight. Every fight is a psychological act of ending his rejection of one of the parties. Typically, models of battle psychological factor taken into account in the decision of Lanchester equations (the condition of equality of forces, when the number of one of the parties becomes zero). It is emphasized that the model Lanchester type satisfactorily describe the dynamics of the battle only in the initial stages. To resolve this contradiction is proposed to use a modification of Lanchester's equations, taking into account the fact that at any moment of the battle on the enemy firing not affected and did not abandon the battle fighters. The obtained differential equations are solved by numerical method and allow the dynamics to take into account the influence of psychological factor and evaluate the completion time of the conflict. Computational experiments confirm the known military theory is the fact that the fight usually ends in refusal of soldiers of one of the parties from its continuation (avoidance of combat in various forms). Along with models of temporal and spatial dynamics proposed to use a modification of the technology features of the conflict of S. Skaperdas, based on the principles of combat. To estimate the probability of victory of one side in the battle takes into account the interest of the maturing sides of the bloody casualties and increased military superiority.

The work discusses the methodological basis and problems of modeling of world dynamics. Outlines approaches to the construction of a new simulation model of global development and the results of the simulation. The basis of the model building is laid empirical approach which based on the statistical analysis of the main socio-economic indicators. On the basis of this analysis identified the main variables. Dynamic equations (in continuous differential form) were written for these variables. Dependencies between variables were selected based on the dynamics of indicators in the past and on the basis of expert assessments, while econometric techniques were used, based on regression analysis. Calculations have been performed for the resulting dynamic equations system, the results are presented in the form of a trajectories beam for those indicators that are directly observable, and for which statistics are available. Thus, it is possible to assess the scatter of the trajectories and understand the predictive capability of this model.