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Cosmological models of the Universe without a Beginning and without a singularity
Computer Research and Modeling, 2021, v. 13, no. 3, pp. 473-486A new type of cosmological models for the Universe that has no Beginning and evolves from the infinitely distant past is considered.
These models are alternative to the cosmological models based on the Big Bang theory according to which the Universe has a finite age and was formed from an initial singularity.
In our opinion, there are certain problems in the Big Bang theory that our cosmological models do not have.
In our cosmological models, the Universe evolves by compression from the infinitely distant past tending a finite minimum of distances between objects of the order of the Compton wavelength $\lambda_C$ of hadrons and the maximum density of matter corresponding to the hadron era of the Universe. Then it expands progressing through all the stages of evolution established by astronomical observations up to the era of inflation.
The material basis that sets the fundamental nature of the evolution of the Universe in the our cosmological models is a nonlinear Dirac spinor field $\psi(x^k)$ with nonlinearity in the Lagrangian of the field of type $\beta(\bar{\psi}\psi)^n$ ($\beta = const$, $n$ is a rational number), where $\psi(x^k)$ is the 4-component Dirac spinor, and $\psi$ is the conjugate spinor.
In addition to the spinor field $\psi$ in cosmological models, we have other components of matter in the form of an ideal liquid with the equation of state $p = w\varepsilon$ $(w = const)$ at different values of the coefficient $w (−1 < w < 1)$. Additional components affect the evolution of the Universe and all stages of evolution occur in accordance with established observation data. Here $p$ is the pressure, $\varepsilon = \rho c^2$ is the energy density, $\rho$ is the mass density, and $c$ is the speed of light in a vacuum.
We have shown that cosmological models with a nonlinear spinor field with a nonlinearity coefficient $n = 2$ are the closest to reality.
In this case, the nonlinear spinor field is described by the Dirac equation with cubic nonlinearity.
But this is the Ivanenko–Heisenberg nonlinear spinor equation which W.Heisenberg used to construct a unified spinor theory of matter.
It is an amazing coincidence that the same nonlinear spinor equation can be the basis for constructing a theory of two different fundamental objects of nature — the evolving Universe and physical matter.
The developments of the cosmological models are supplemented by their computer researches the results of which are presented graphically in the work.
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The present article sets out the scientific approach of Dmitry Sergeevich Chernavskii to the modelling of economic processes. It recounts the history of works of Dmitry Sergeyevich on the economic front, its milestones and achievements. One of the most important advances in the economic analysis was the prediction by a team of scientists headed by D. S. Chernavskii, the major crises that have occurred in our country over the last 20 years, namely, the default of 1998, the crisis of industrial production in the second half of the 2000s, the 2008 crisis and the ensuing recession. As an example, the dynamic analysis of the global macroeconomic processes shows the model of functioning of the dollar as the world currency. On this particular example shows the possibility of seigniorage due to the issue of the dollar and the calculated “window of opportunity” that allows you to issue dollars as the global currency, without prejudice to its own economy.
A model for the development of a closed society (without external economic relations) in the one-product approach is considered as an example of dynamic analysis of the economy of a separate state. The model is based on the principles of market economy, i.e. the dynamics of prices is determined by the balance of supply and demand. It is shown that in the general case, the state of market equilibrium is not unique. Several steady states with different levels of production and consumption are possible. Effect of addressed emission of money in underproductive state is considered. It is shown that, depending on its size it can lead to the transition to a highly productive condition, and just cause inflation without transition. The relationship of these results with the “Keynesian” and “monetarist” approaches is discussed.
Keywords: the economy, crises, dynamic analysis, dollar, seigniorage, mathematical model, emission, inflation, the digital economy.Views (last year): 5. Citations: 2 (RSCI). -
Uncertainty factor in modeling dynamics of economic systems
Computer Research and Modeling, 2018, v. 10, no. 2, pp. 261-276Views (last year): 39.Analysis and practical aspects of implementing developed in the control theory robust control methods in studying economic systems is carried out. The main emphasis is placed on studying results obtained for dynamical systems with structured uncertainty. Practical aspects of implementing such results in control of economic systems on the basis of dynamical models with uncertain parameters and perturbations (stabilization of price on the oil market and inflation in macroeconomic systems) are discussed. With the help of specially constructed aggregate model of oil price dynamics studied the problem of finding control which provides minimal deviation of price from desired levels over middle range period. The second real problem considered in the article consists in determination of stabilizing control providing minimal deviation of inflation from desired levels (on the basis of constructed aggregate macroeconomic model of the USA over middle range period).
Upper levels of parameters uncertainty and control laws guaranteeing stabilizability of the real considered economic systems have been found using the robust method of control with structured uncertainty. At the same time we have come to the conclusion that received estimates of parameters uncertainty upper levels are conservative. Monte-Carlo experiments carried out for the article made it possible to analyze dynamics of oil price and inflation under received limit levels of models parameters uncertainty and under implementing found robust control laws for the worst and the best scenarios. Results of these experiments show that received robust control laws may be successfully used under less stringent uncertainty constraints than it is guaranteed by sufficient conditions of stabilization.
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Valuation of machines at the random process of their degradation and premature sales
Computer Research and Modeling, 2024, v. 16, no. 3, pp. 797-815The model of the process of using machinery and equipment is considered, which takes into account the probabilistic nature of the process of their operation and sale. It takes into account the possibility of random hidden failures, after which the condition of the machine deteriorates abruptly, as well as the randomly arising need for premature (before the end of its service life) sale of the machine, which requires, generally speaking, random time. The model is focused on assessing the market value and service life of machines in accordance with International Valuation Standards. Strictly speaking, the market value of a used machine depends on its technical condition, but in practice, appraisers only take into account its age, since generally accepted measures of the technical condition of machines do not yet exist. As a result, the market value of a used machine is assumed to be equal to the average market value of similar machines of the corresponding age. For these purposes, appraisers use coefficients that reflect the influence of the age of machines on their market value. Such coefficients are not always justified and do not take into account either the degradation of the machine or the probabilistic nature of the process of its use. The proposed model is based on the anticipation of benefits principle. In it, we characterize the state of the machine by the intensity of the benefits it brings. The machine is subjected to a complex Poisson failure process, and after failure its condition abruptly worsens and may even reach its limit. Situations also arise that preclude further use of the machine by its owner. In such situations, the owner puts the machine up for sale before the end of its service life (prematurely), and the sale requires a random timing. The model allows us to take into account the influence of such situations and construct an analytical relationship linking the market value of a machine with its condition, and calculate the average coefficients of change in the market value of machines with age. At the same time, it is also possible to take into account the influence of inflation and the scrap cost of the machine. We have found that the rate of prematurely sales has a significant impact on the cost of new and used machines. The model also allows us to take into account the influence of inflation and the scrap value of the machine. We have found that the rate of premature sales has a significant impact on the service life and market value of new and used machines. At the same time, the dependence of the market value of machines on age is largely determined by the coefficient of variation of the service life of the machines. The results obtained allow us to obtain more reasonable estimates of the market value of machines, including for the purposes of the system of national accounts.
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International Interdisciplinary Conference "Mathematics. Computing. Education"