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The 3rd BRICS Mathematics Conference
Computer Research and Modeling, 2019, v. 11, no. 6, pp. 1015-1016 -
Mathematical modeling of the age groups of employed peoples by the example of the southern regions of the Russian Far East
Computer Research and Modeling, 2016, v. 8, no. 5, pp. 787-801Views (last year): 4. Citations: 3 (RSCI).The article focuses on a nonlinear mathematical model that describes the interaction of the different age groups of the employed population. The interactions are treated by analogy with population relationship (competition, discrimination, assistance, oppression, etc). Under interaction of peoples we mean the generalized social and economic mechanisms that cause related changes in the number of employees of different age groups. Three age groups of the employed population are considered. It is young specialists (15–29 years), workers with experience (30–49 years), the employees of pre-retirement and retirement age (50 and older). The estimation of model’s parameters for the southern regions of the Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD) is executed by statistical data. Analysis of model scenarios allows us to conclude the observed number fluctuations of the different ages employees on the background of a stable total employed population may be a consequence of complex interactions between these groups of peoples. Computational experiments with the obtained values of the parameters allowed us to calculate the rate of decline and the aging of the working population and to determine the nature of the interaction between the age groups of employees that are not directly as reflected in the statistics. It was found that in FEFD the employed of 50 years and older are discriminated against by the young workers under 29, employed up to 29 and 30–49 years are in a partnership. It is shown in most developed regions (Primorsky and Khabarovsk Krai) there is “uniform” competition among different age groups of the employed population. For Primorsky Krai we were able to identify the mixing effect dynamics. It is a typical situation for systems in a state of structural adjustment. This effect is reflected in the fact the long cycles of employed population form with a significant decrease in migration inflows of employees 30–49 years. Besides, the change of migration is accompanied by a change of interaction type — from employment discrimination by the oldest of middle generation to discrimination by the middle of older generation. In less developed regions (Amur, Magadan and Jewish Autonomous Regions) there are lower values of migration balance of almost all age groups and discrimination by young workers up 29 years of other age groups and employment discrimination 30–49 years of the older generation.
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Modeling the impact of mobility of individuals on space-time dynamics of a population by means of a computer model
Computer Research and Modeling, 2016, v. 8, no. 2, pp. 297-305Views (last year): 2. Citations: 3 (RSCI).A computer model describing the spatial-temporal dynamics of populations of interacting with renewable resource is proposed. The life cycle of the individual is described. The algorithm for spatial mobility of individuals within an area is proposed, which takes into account nutritional and social activity. The paper presents the computational experiments with the model that mimic the movement of herds of animals in the area, and describes the model experiment when the group type of animal behavior due to changes in the characteristics of the environment and animal behavior the herd animals is formed, which later goes again in the group type of animal behavior.
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Mathematical modeling of the population dynamics of different age-group workers in the regional economy
Computer Research and Modeling, 2014, v. 6, no. 3, pp. 441-454The article deals with the nonlinear model of population dynamics of different ages workers in the regional economy. The model is built on the principles underlying modeling in econophysics. The authors demonstrate the complex dynamics of the model regimes that impose fundamental limits on medium- and long-term forecast of employment in a region. By analogy with the biophysical approach the authors propose a classification of social interactions of the different age-group workers. The model analysis is given for the level of employment among age groups. The verification of the model performs on the statistical data of the Jewish Autonomous Region.
Keywords: nonlinear dynamics, econophysics, biophysics, age group, employed population, employment, region.Views (last year): 4. Citations: 15 (RSCI). -
Assessment of the elite–people interaction in post-soviet countries using the Bayesian approach
Computer Research and Modeling, 2021, v. 13, no. 6, pp. 1233-1247A previously developed model that describes the dynamics of social tension in a society divided into two groups: the elite and the people was considered. This model took into account the impact of economic situation changes and the elite–people interaction. The model has been modified by including in the equation describing the tension of the people, a term that takes into account the adaptation of the people to the current situation.
The model coefficients estimation is an important task, the solution of which allows obtaining information about the nature of the interaction between elite and people. We believe that the solution of the system of model equations with optimal coefficients is closest to the values of the indicator characterizing social tension. We used the normalized level of homicide rate as an indicator of social tension.
The model contains seven coefficients. Two coefficients characterizing the influence of economic situation changes on elite and people are taken equal to each other and the same for all countries. We obtained their estimations using a simplified model that takes into account only the change in the economic situation and allows an analytical solution.
The Bayesian approach was used to estimate the remaining five coefficients of model for post-Soviet countries. The prior probability densities of the four coefficients for all countries under consideration were taken to be the same. The prior probability density of fifth coefficient was considered to depend on the regime of government (authoritarian or «transitional»). We assumed that the calculated tension matches with the corresponding indicator of tension in cases where the difference between them does not exceed 5%.
The calculations showed that for the post-Soviet countries, a good coincidence was obtained between the calculated values of the people tension and the normalized level of homicide rate. The coincidence is satisfactory only on average.
The following main results was obtained at the work: under the influence of some «significant» events in 40% of post-Soviet countries, there was a rapid change in the nature of interaction between the elite and the people; regional feature have some influence on the elite–people interaction; the type of government does not significantly affect the elite–people interaction; the method for assessing the stability of the country by the value of the model coefficients is proposed.
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Analysing the impact of migration on background social strain using a continuous social stratification model
Computer Research and Modeling, 2022, v. 14, no. 3, pp. 661-673The background social strain of a society can be quantitatively estimated using various statistical indicators. Mathematical models, allowing to forecast the dynamics of social strain, are successful in describing various social processes. If the number of interacting groups is small, the dynamics of the corresponding indicators can be modelled with a system of ordinary differential equations. The increase in the number of interacting components leads to the growth of complexity, which makes the analysis of such models a challenging task. A continuous social stratification model can be considered as a result of the transition from a discrete number of interacting social groups to their continuous distribution in some finite interval. In such a model, social strain naturally spreads locally between neighbouring groups, while in reality, the social elite influences the whole society via news media, and the Internet allows non-local interaction between social groups. These factors, however, can be taken into account to some extent using the term of the model, describing negative external influence on the society. In this paper, we develop a continuous social stratification model, describing the dynamics of two societies connected through migration. We assume that people migrate from the social group of donor society with the highest strain level to poorer social layers of the acceptor society, transferring the social strain at the same time. We assume that all model parameters are constants, which is a realistic assumption for small societies only. By using the finite volume method, we construct the spatial discretization for the problem, capable of reproducing finite propagation speed of social strain. We verify the discretization by comparing the results of numerical simulations with the exact solutions of the auxiliary non-linear diffusion equation. We perform the numerical analysis of the proposed model for different values of model parameters, study the impact of migration intensity on the stability of acceptor society, and find the destabilization conditions. The results, obtained in this work, can be used in further analysis of the model in the more realistic case of inhomogeneous coefficients.
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A model for analyzing income inequality based on a finite functional sequence (adequacy and application problems)
Computer Research and Modeling, 2022, v. 14, no. 3, pp. 675-689The paper considers the adequacy of the model developed earlier by the author for the analysis of income inequality and based on an empirically confirmed hypothesis that the relative (to the income of the richest group) income values of 20% population groups in total income can be represented as a finite functional sequence, each member of which depends on one parameter — a specially defined indicator of inequality. It is shown that in addition to the existing methods of inequality analysis, the model makes it possible to estimate with the help of analytical expressions the income shares of 20%, 10% and smaller groups of the population for different levels of inequality, as well as to identify how they change with the growth of inequality, to estimate the level of inequality for known ratios between the incomes of different groups of the population, etc.
The paper provides a more detailed confirmation of the proposed model adequacy in comparison with the previously obtained results of statistical analysis of empirical data on the distribution of income between the 20% and 10% population groups. It is based on the analysis of certain ratios between the values of quintiles and deciles according to the proposed model. The verification of these ratios was carried out using a set of data for a large number of countries and the estimates obtained confirm the sufficiently high accuracy of the model.
Data are presented that confirm the possibility of using the model to analyze the dependence of income distribution by population groups on the level of inequality, as well as to estimate the inequality indicator for income ratios between different groups, including variants when the income of the richest 20% is equal to the income of the poor 60 %, income of the middle class 40% or income of the rest 80% of the population, as well as when the income of the richest 10% is equal to the income of the poor 40 %, 50% or 60%, to the income of various middle class groups, etc., as well as for cases, when the distribution of income obeys harmonic proportions and when the quintiles and deciles corresponding to the middle class reach a maximum. It is shown that the income shares of the richest middle class groups are relatively stable and have a maximum at certain levels of inequality.
The results obtained with the help of the model can be used to determine the standards for developing a policy of gradually increasing the level of progressive taxation in order to move to the level of inequality typical of countries with social oriented economy.
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Simulation of corruption in hierarchical systems
Computer Research and Modeling, 2014, v. 6, no. 2, pp. 321-329Views (last year): 8. Citations: 11 (RSCI).Simulation model of corruption in hierarchical systems which takes into account individual strategies of elements and collective behavior of large groups is proposed. Evolution of various characteristics like level of corruption or ratio of corrupted elements and their dependence on external parameters are discussed. The effectiveness of various anticorruptional strategies is examined by means of numeric analysis.
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Approaches to a social network groups clustering
Computer Research and Modeling, 2015, v. 7, no. 5, pp. 1127-1139Views (last year): 8. Citations: 2 (RSCI).The research is devoted to the problem of the use of social networks as a tool of the illegal activity and as a source of information that could be dangerous to society. The article presents the structure of the multiagent system with which a social network groups could be clustered according to the criteria uniquely defines a group as a destructive. The agents’ of the system clustering algorithm is described.
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Stochastic model of voter dynamics in online media
Computer Research and Modeling, 2019, v. 11, no. 5, pp. 979-997In the present article we explore the process of changing the level of approval of a political leader under the influence of the processes taking place in online platforms (social networks, forums, etc.). The driver of these changes is the interaction of users, through which they can exchange opinions with each other and formulate their position in relation to the political leader. In addition to interpersonal interaction, we will consider such factors as the information impact, expressed in the creation of an information flow with a given power and polarity (positive or negative, in the context of influencing the image of a political leader), as well as the presence of a group of agents (opinion leaders), supporting the leader, or, conversely, negatively affecting its representation in the media space.
The mathematical basis of the presented research is the Kirman model, which has its roots in biology and initially found its application in economics. Within the framework of this model it is considered that each user is in one of the two possible states, and a Markov jump process describing transitions between these states is given. For the problem under consideration, these states are 0 or 1, depending on whether a particular agent is a supporter of a political leader or not. For further research, we find its diffusional approximation, known as the Jacoby process. With the help of spectral decomposition for the infinitesimal operator of this process we have an opportunity to find an analytical representation for the transition probability density.
Analyzing the probabilities obtained in this way, we can assess the influence of individual factors of the model: the power and direction of the information flow, available to online users and relevant to the tasks of rating formation, as well as the number of supporters or opponents of the politician. Next, using the found eigenfunctions and eigenvalues, we derive expressions for the evaluation of conditional mathematical expectations of a politician’s rating, which can serve as a basis for building forecasts that are important for the formation of a strategy of representing a political leader in the online environment.
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International Interdisciplinary Conference "Mathematics. Computing. Education"