Modeling the impact of epidemic spread and lockdown on economy

Saade M.G.
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Epidemics severely destabilize economies by reducing productivity, weakening consumer spending, and overwhelming public infrastructure, often culminating in economic recessions. The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the critical role of nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as lockdowns, in containing infectious disease transmission. This study investigates how the progression of epidemics and the implementation of lockdown policies shape the economic well-being of populations. By integrating compartmental ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, the research analyzes the interplay between epidemic dynamics and economic outcomes, particularly focusing on how varying lockdown intensities influence both disease spread and population wealth. Findings reveal that epidemics inflict significant economic damage, but timely and stringent lockdowns can mitigate healthcare system overload by sharply reducing infection peaks and delaying the epidemic’s trajectory. However, carefully timed lockdown relaxation is equally vital to prevent resurgent outbreaks. The study identifies key epidemiological thresholds—such as transmission rates, recovery rates, and the basic reproduction number $(\mathfrak{R}0)$ — that determine the effectiveness of lockdowns. Analytically, it pinpoints the optimal proportion of isolated individuals required to minimize total infections in scenarios where permanent immunity is assumed. Economically, the analysis quantifies lockdown impacts by tracking population wealth, demonstrating that economic outcomes depend heavily on the fraction of isolated individuals who remain economically productive. Higher proportions of productive individuals during lockdowns correlate with better wealth retention, even under fixed epidemic conditions. These insights equip policymakers with actionable frameworks to design balanced lockdown strategies that curb disease spread while safeguarding economic stability during future health crises.

Keywords: epidemic-economic ODE model, immunity waning, lockdown, wealth
Citation in English: Saade M.G. Modeling the impact of epidemic spread and lockdown on economy // Computer Research and Modeling, 2025, vol. 17, no. 2, pp. 339-363
Citation in English: Saade M.G. Modeling the impact of epidemic spread and lockdown on economy // Computer Research and Modeling, 2025, vol. 17, no. 2, pp. 339-363
DOI: 10.20537/2076-7633-2025-17-2-339-363
URL: http://crm-en.ics.org.ru/journal/article/3602/
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License.

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