Lead measures of local extremes of seismic noise statistics relative to seismic events before the mega-earthquake in Kamchatka on July 29, 2025

Lyubushin A.A., Kopylova G.N., Kasimova V.A.
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Public interest in earthquake prediction fluctuates in accordance with the recurrence of strong seismic events. Each time a strong earthquake occurs, this interest is revived, raising the question of whether precursors could have been found in changes in geophysical fields continuously recorded by monitoring networks in seismically active regions. For Russia, such a significant event is the mega-earthquake in Kamchatka on July 29, 2025. This article examines the characteristics of seismic noise continuously measured at a network of 27 stations located in Kamchatka from early 2011 to late February 2026. In successive one-day time windows, three characteristics of the waveforms of vertical oscillations of the earth’s surface are calculated for each station: the width of the support of the multifractal spectrum of singularities, the entropy of the distribution of orthogonal wavelet coefficients, and the Donoho – Johnston index, equal to the ratio of the largest wavelet coefficients to their total number. In a sliding time window of 365 days, the first principal component of the high-frequency components of the median values of these three statistics is calculated for all stations in the network after removing local trends using a Gaussian filter of radius 2 days, and the smallest local minima of the first principal component are found. The number of local minima was chosen equal to the number of background seismic events with a magnitude of at least 5.5. The lead time between two event sequences is considered-a characteristic that takes values from 0 to 1 and is determined using a parametric model of two interacting point processes, one of which is the times of weak earthquakes, and the other is the times of the smallest local minima of the first principal component. The lead time is calculated over a 2.7-year sliding time window, equal to the statistically significant period of fluctuations in the intensity of background seismic events. The assessments revealed that the lead time for seismic events reached its maximum value of 1 5.5 years before the mega-earthquake of July 29, 2025.

Keywords: multifractals, wavelets, principal components, parametric models of point process intensity, seismic events, mega-earthquake, Kamchatka
Citation in English: Lyubushin A.A., Kopylova G.N., Kasimova V.A. Lead measures of local extremes of seismic noise statistics relative to seismic events before the mega-earthquake in Kamchatka on July 29, 2025 // Computer Research and Modeling, 2026, vol. 18, no. 5, pp. 1205-1221
Citation in English: Lyubushin A.A., Kopylova G.N., Kasimova V.A. Lead measures of local extremes of seismic noise statistics relative to seismic events before the mega-earthquake in Kamchatka on July 29, 2025 // Computer Research and Modeling, 2026, vol. 18, no. 5, pp. 1205-1221
DOI: 10.20537/2076-7633-2026-18-5-1205-1221
URL: http://crm-en.ics.org.ru/journal/article/3777/
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License.

Copyright © 2026 Lyubushin A.A., Kopylova G.N., Kasimova V.A.

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