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The mechanisms of hydrodynamical activation of blood coagulation system are investigated in stenosed vessels for a wide range of Reynolds number values (from 10 up to 500). It is assumed that the vessel wall permeability for procoagulant factors rapidly increases when wall shear stress exceeds specific threshold value. A number of patterns of blood coagulation processes development are described. The influence of blood flow topology changes on activation of blood coagulation is explored. It is established that not only blood flow decrease, but also its increase may promote activation of blood coagulation. It was found that dependence of thrombogenic danger of stenosis on vessel lumen blockage ratio is non-monotonic. The relevance of obtained theoretical results for clinical practice is discussed.

The question of distribution of citizens expenses in modern Russia is experimentally investigated. New cars were chosen as representative group of the acquired goods as well as earlier. Results of the analysis of sales of new cars for 2007–2009 are presented below. Main “body” of density of probability to find certain number of cars depending on their price, since some initial price up to ~ k$60, is an exponential distribution. The found feature of distribution (unlike 2003–2005) was an existence of minimum price. For expensive cars (distribution “tail”), the asymptotic form is the Pareto distribution with a hyperbole exponent a little greater, than measured earlier for 2003–2005. The results turned up to be similar to direct measurements of distribution of tax declarations on their size, submitted to the USA in 2004 where exponential distribution of the income of citizens, since some minimum, with some asymptotic in the form of Pareto's distribution also was observed.

Location-based models — one of areas of CAMA (computer-assisted mass apriasal) building. When taking into account the location of the object using spatial autoregressive models structure of models (type of spatial autocorrelation, choice of “nearest neighbors”) cannot always be determined before its construction. Moreover, in practice there are situations where more efficient methods are taking into account different rates depending on the type of the object from its location. In this regard there are important issues in spatial methods area:

– fields of methods efficacy;

– sensitivity of the methods on the choice of the type of spatial model and on the selected number of nearest neighbors.

This article presents a methodology for assessing the effectiveness of computer evaluation of real estate objects. There are results of approbation on methods based on location information of the objects.

A simple model was developed to describe the dependence of net CO₂ exchange in a sphagnum peat bog as a function of incoming solar radiation, air temperature, and soil moisture. It was parameterized using the field measurement data from two neighboring sites in an undisturbed peat bog (the pine mire with shrub and sphagnum and the shrub-sphagnum mire with rare pine) in Moscow Region. Measurements were conducted during the second part of the growing season, when the groundwater level was below 30 cm. It was shown that is a key parameter influencing the photosynthesis and respiration rates of a sphagnum moss and peat soil. The developed model allows to explain from 71 % to 74 % of the variation of CO₂ exchange in the peat bog.

We comsider a model of the dynamics a political system of several parties, accompanied and controlled by the growth of social tension. A system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is proposed with respect to fractions and an additional scalar variable characterizing the magnitude of tension in society the change of each party is proportional to the current value multiplied by a coefficient that consists of an influx of novice, a flow from competing parties, and a loss due to the growth of social tension. The change in tension is made up of party contributions and own relaxation. The number of parties is fixed, there are no mechanisms in the model for combining existing or the birth of new parties.

To study of possible scenarios of the dynamic processes of the model we derive an approach based on the selection of conditions under which this problem belongs to the class of cosymmetric systems. For the case of two parties, it is shown that in the system under consideration may have two families of equilibria, as well as a family of limit cycles. The existence of cosymmetry for a system of differential equations is ensured by the presence of additional constraints on the parameters, and in this case, the emergence of continuous families of stationary and nonstationary solutions is possible. To analyze the scenarios of cosymmetry breaking, an approach based on the selective function is applied. In the case of one political party, there is no multistability, one stable solution corresponds to each set of parameters. For the case of two parties, it is shown that in the system under consideration may have two families of equilibria, as well as a family of limit cycles. The results of numerical experiments demonstrating the destruction of the families and the implementation of various scenarios leading to the stabilization of the political system with the coexistence of both parties or to the disappearance of one of the parties, when part of the population ceases to support one of the parties and becomes indifferent are presented.

This model can be used to predict the inter-party struggle during the election campaign. In this case necessary to take into account the dependence of the coefficients of the system on time.

Simulation of combat and military operations is the most important scientific and practical task aimed at providing the command of quantitative bases for decision-making. The first models of combat were developed during the First World War (M. Osipov, F. Lanchester), and now they are widely used in connection with the massive introduction of automation tools. At the same time, the models of combat and war do not fully take into account the moral potentials of the parties to the conflict, which motivates and motivates the further development of models of battle and war. A probabilistic model of combat is considered, in which the parameter of combat superiority is determined through the parameter of moral (the ratio of the percentages of the losses sustained by the parties) and the parameter of technological superiority. To assess the latter, the following is taken into account: command experience (ability to organize coordinated actions), reconnaissance, fire and maneuverability capabilities of the parties and operational (combat) support capabilities. A game-based offensive-defense model has been developed, taking into account the actions of the first and second echelons (reserves) of the parties. The target function of the attackers in the model is the product of the probability of a breakthrough by the first echelon of one of the defense points by the probability of the second echelon of the counterattack repelling the reserve of the defenders. Solved the private task of managing the breakthrough of defense points and found the optimal distribution of combat units between the trains. The share of troops allocated by the parties to the second echelon (reserve) increases with an increase in the value of the aggregate combat superiority parameter of those advancing and decreases with an increase in the value of the combat superiority parameter when repelling a counterattack. When planning a battle (battles, operations) and the distribution of its troops between echelons, it is important to know not the exact number of enemy troops, but their capabilities and capabilities, as well as the degree of preparedness of the defense, which does not contradict the experience of warfare. Depending on the conditions of the situation, the goal of an offensive may be to defeat the enemy, quickly capture an important area in the depth of the enemy’s defense, minimize their losses, etc. For scaling the offensive-defense model for targets, the dependencies of the losses and the onset rate on the initial ratio of the combat potentials of the parties were found. The influence of social costs on the course and outcome of wars is taken into account. A theoretical explanation is given of a loss in a military company with a technologically weak adversary and with a goal of war that is unclear to society. To account for the influence of psychological operations and information wars on the moral potential of individuals, a model of social and information influence was used.

In many social groups, for example, in technical committees for standardization, at the international, regional and national levels, in European communities, managers of ecovillages, social movements (occupy), international organizations, decision-making is based on the consensus of the group members. Instead of voting, where the majority wins over the minority, consensus allows for a solution that each member of the group supports, or at least considers acceptable. This approach ensures that all group members’ opinions, ideas and needs are taken into account. At the same time, it is noted that reaching consensus takes a long time, since it is necessary to ensure agreement within the group, regardless of its size. It was shown that in some situations the number of iterations (agreements, negotiations) is very significant. Moreover, in the decision-making process, there is always a risk of blocking the decision by the minority in the group, which not only delays the decisionmaking time, but makes it impossible. Typically, such a minority is one or two odious people in the group. At the same time, such a member of the group tries to dominate in the discussion, always remaining in his opinion, ignoring the position of other colleagues. This leads to a delay in the decision-making process, on the one hand, and a deterioration in the quality of consensus, on the other, since only the opinion of the dominant member of the group has to be taken into account. To overcome the crisis in this situation, it was proposed to make a decision on the principle of «consensus minus one» or «consensus minus two», that is, do not take into account the opinion of one or two odious members of the group.

The article, based on modeling consensus using the model of regular Markov chains, examines the question of how much the decision-making time according to the «consensus minus one» rule is reduced, when the position of the dominant member of the group is not taken into account.

The general conclusion that follows from the simulation results is that the rule of thumb for making decisions on the principle of «consensus minus one» has a corresponding mathematical justification. The simulation results showed that the application of the «consensus minus one» rule can reduce the time to reach consensus in the group by 76–95%, which is important for practice.

The average number of agreements hyperbolically depends on the average authoritarianism of the group members (excluding the authoritarian one), which means the possibility of delaying the agreement process at high values of the authoritarianism of the group members.

Posts on social networks can both predict the movement of the financial market, and in some cases even determine its direction. The analysis of posts on Twitter contributes to the prediction of cryptocurrency prices. The specificity of the community is represented in a special vocabulary. Thus, slang expressions and abbreviations are used in posts, the presence of which makes it difficult to vectorize text data, as a result of which preprocessing methods such as Stanza lemmatization and the use of regular expressions are considered. This paper describes created simplest machine learning models, which may work despite such problems as lack of data and short prediction timeframe. A word is considered as an element of a binary vector of a data unit in the course of the problem of binary classification solving. Basic words are determined according to the frequency analysis of mentions of a word. The markup is based on Binance candlesticks with variable parameters for a more accurate description of the trend of price changes. The paper introduces metrics that reflect the distribution of words depending on their belonging to a positive or negative classes. To solve the classification problem, we used a dense model with parameters selected by Keras Tuner, logistic regression, a random forest classifier, a naive Bayesian classifier capable of working with a small sample, which is very important for our task, and the k-nearest neighbors method. The constructed models were compared based on the accuracy metric of the predicted labels. During the investigation we recognized that the best approach is to use models which predict price movements of a single coin. Our model deals with posts that mention LUNA project, which no longer exist. This approach to solving binary classification of text data is widely used to predict the price of an asset, the trend of its movement, which is often used in automated trading.

We consider strongly-convex-strongly-concave saddle-point problems with general non-bilinear objective and different condition numbers with respect to the primal and dual variables. First, we consider such problems with smooth composite terms, one of which has finite-sum structure. For this setting we propose a variance reduction algorithm with complexity estimates superior to the existing bounds in the literature. Second, we consider finite-sum saddle-point problems with composite terms and propose several algorithms depending on the properties of the composite terms. When the composite terms are smooth we obtain better complexity bounds than the ones in the literature, including the bounds of a recently proposed nearly-optimal algorithms which do not consider the composite structure of the problem. If the composite terms are prox-friendly, we propose a variance reduction algorithm that, on the one hand, is accelerated compared to existing variance reduction algorithms and, on the other hand, provides in the composite setting similar complexity bounds to the nearly-optimal algorithm which is designed for noncomposite setting. Besides, our algorithms allow one to separate the complexity bounds, i. e. estimate, for each part of the objective separately, the number of oracle calls that is sufficient to achieve a given accuracy. This is important since different parts can have different arithmetic complexity of the oracle, and it is desired to call expensive oracles less often than cheap oracles. The key thing to all these results is our general framework for saddle-point problems, which may be of independent interest. This framework, in turn is based on our proposed Accelerated Meta-Algorithm for composite optimization with probabilistic inexact oracles and probabilistic inexactness in the proximal mapping, which may be of independent interest as well.

Numerical modeling of shear-induced platelet activation in haemodialysis arteriovenous fistulas was carried out in this work. The goal was to investigate the mechanisms of threshold shear-induced platelet activation in fistulas. For shear-induced platelet activation to take place, shear stress accumulated by platelets along corresponding trajectories in blood flow had to exceed a definite threshold value. The threshold value of cumulative shear stress was supposed to depend on the multimer size of von Willebrand factor macromolecules acting as hydrodynamic sensors for platelets. The effect of arteriovenous fistulas parameters, such as the anastomotic angle, blood flow rate, and the multimer size of von Willebrand factor macromolecules, on platelet activation risk was studied. Parametric diagrams have been constructed that make it possible to distinguish the areas of parameters corresponding to the presence or absence of shear-induced platelet activation. Scaling relations that approximate critical curves on parametric diagrams were obtained. Analysis showed that threshold fistula flow rate is higher for obtuse anastomotic angle than for sharp ones. This means that a fistula with obtuse angle can be used in wider flow rate range without risk of platelet activation. In addition, a study of different anastomosis configurations of arteriovenous fistulas showed that the configuration “end of vein to end of artery” is among the safest. For all the investigated anastomosis configurations, the critical curves on the parametric diagrams were monotonically decreasing functions of von Willebrand factor multimer size. It was shown that fistula flow rate should have a significant impact on the probability of thrombus formation initiation, while the direction of flow through the distal artery did not affect platelet activation. The obtained results allowed to determine the safest fistula configurations with respect to thrombus formation triggering. The authors believe that the results of the work may be of interest to doctors performing surgical operations for creation of arteriovenous fistulas for haemodialysis. In the final section of the work, possible clinical applications of the obtained results by means of mathematical modeling are discussed.