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Discrete network dynamic system for modeling the spread of panic in groups of people
Computer Research and Modeling, 2026, v. 18, no. 2, pp. 483-499The paper addresses the problem of modeling the formation and propagation of panic states in social groups with relatively stable structures of interpersonal interactions. Panic is interpreted as a nonlinear process of emotional contagion arising from the interaction between individual psychological characteristics and collective effects within a social environment. In contrast to models focused on the spatial dynamics of moving crowds, the proposed approach concentrates on quasi-stationary interaction networks that reflect informational and emotional contacts among individuals.
The developed discrete network dynamical system integrates individual temperament parameters (sanguine, choleric, phlegmatic, melancholic), the structure of social connections, and nonlinear mechanisms of collective behavior. The individual dynamics of panic are described using an S-shaped growth function, which ensures boundedness of the emotional arousal level and captures the stages of its formation and saturation. Social influence is modeled on a graph of interpersonal interactions (an Erdos –Renyi random network) through local contacts between individuals.
Additionally, the model incorporates the effects of collective contagion and avalanche-like amplification driven by the average panic level in the group, as well as a baseline stress factor depending on group size. Numerical simulation is implemented in a discrete iterative form, allowing for the analysis of both individual and group panic trajectories. A quantitative indicator of the panic propagation rate is introduced, defined by the time required for the group to reach a state close to full panic.
A comparative analysis of heterogeneous and homogeneous groups is conducted, demonstrating that group heterogeneity significantly accelerates panic propagation due to inter-temperament interactions: highly excitable individuals act as initiators of emotional contagion, while more stable individuals partially dampen its dynamics. The evaluation of the model quality using the coefficient of determination shows a high degree of consistency within the simulation data.
The practical significance of the work lies in the potential application of the model for analyzing the resilience of social groups to panic states, assessing risks at mass events, and developing intelligent systems for monitoring collective behavior. Future research directions include extending the model to account for directed and dynamic networks, as well as its calibration based on empirical data.
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Personalization of mathematical models in cardiology: obstacles and perspectives
Computer Research and Modeling, 2022, v. 14, no. 4, pp. 911-930Most biomechanical tasks of interest to clinicians can be solved only using personalized mathematical models. Such models allow to formalize and relate key pathophysiological processes, basing on clinically available data evaluate non-measurable parameters that are important for the diagnosis of diseases, predict the result of a therapeutic or surgical intervention. The use of models in clinical practice imposes additional restrictions: clinicians require model validation on clinical cases, the speed and automation of the entire calculated technological chain, from processing input data to obtaining a result. Limitations on the simulation time, determined by the time of making a medical decision (of the order of several minutes), imply the use of reduction methods that correctly describe the processes under study within the framework of reduced models or machine learning tools.
Personalization of models requires patient-oriented parameters, personalized geometry of a computational domain and generation of a computational mesh. Model parameters are estimated by direct measurements, or methods of solving inverse problems, or methods of machine learning. The requirement of personalization imposes severe restrictions on the number of fitted parameters that can be measured under standard clinical conditions. In addition to parameters, the model operates with boundary conditions that must take into account the patient’s characteristics. Methods for setting personalized boundary conditions significantly depend on the clinical setting of the problem and clinical data. Building a personalized computational domain through segmentation of medical images and generation of the computational grid, as a rule, takes a lot of time and effort due to manual or semi-automatic operations. Development of automated methods for setting personalized boundary conditions and segmentation of medical images with the subsequent construction of a computational grid is the key to the widespread use of mathematical modeling in clinical practice.
The aim of this work is to review our solutions for personalization of mathematical models within the framework of three tasks of clinical cardiology: virtual assessment of hemodynamic significance of coronary artery stenosis, calculation of global blood flow after hemodynamic correction of complex heart defects, calculating characteristics of coaptation of reconstructed aortic valve.
Keywords: computational biomechanics, personalized model. -
Reinforcement learning in optimisation of financial market trading strategy parameters
Computer Research and Modeling, 2024, v. 16, no. 7, pp. 1793-1812High frequency algorithmic trading became is a subclass of trading which is focused on gaining basis-point like profitability on sub-second time frames. Such trading strategies do not depend on most of the factors eligible for the longer-term trading and require specific approach. There were many attempts to utilize machine learning techniques to both high and low frequency trading. However, it is still having limited application in the real world trading due to high exposure to overfitting, requirements for rapid adaptation to new market regimes and overall instability of the results. We conducted a comprehensive research on combination of known quantitative theory and reinforcement learning methods in order derive more effective and robust approach at construction of automated trading system in an attempt to create a support for a known algorithmic trading techniques. Using classical price behavior theories as well as modern application cases in sub-millisecond trading, we utilized the Reinforcement Learning models in order to improve quality of the algorithms. As a result, we derived a robust model which utilize Deep Reinforcement learning in order to optimise static market making trading algorithms’ parameters capable of online learning on live data. More specifically, we explored the system in the derivatives cryptocurrency market which mostly not dependent on external factors in short terms. Our research was implemented in high-frequency environment and the final models showed capability to operate within accepted high-frequency trading time-frames. We compared various combinations of Deep Reinforcement Learning approaches and the classic algorithms and evaluated robustness and effectiveness of improvements for each combination.
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Reduced model of photosystem II and its use to evaluate the photosynthetic apparatus characteristics according to the fluorescence induction curves
Computer Research and Modeling, 2012, v. 4, no. 4, pp. 943-958Views (last year): 3. Citations: 2 (RSCI).The approach for the analysis of some large-scale biological systems, on the base of quasiequilibrium stages is proposed. The approach allows us to reduce the detailed large-scaled models and obtain the simplified model with an analytical solution. This makes it possible to reproduce the experimental curves with a good accuracy. This approach has been applied to a detailed model of the primary processes of photosynthesis in the reaction center of photosystem II. The resulting simplified model of photosystem II describes the experimental fluorescence induction curves for higher and lower plants, obtained under different light intensities. Derived relationships between variables and parameters of detailed and simplified models, allow us to use parameters of simplified model to describe the dynamics of various states of photosystem II detailed model.
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International Interdisciplinary Conference "Mathematics. Computing. Education"




