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Relevance of the problem of asteroid and comet impact hazard is considered. The short list of falling of space bodies to the Earth and their flights about it on distances, smaller  distances to the Moon, for the last 100 years is carried out. The question about  development of the federal research program on space protection of our planet and its integration into the international program is raised.

At present modern quantum technologies can get a new twist of development, which will certainly give an opportunity to obtain solutions for numerous problems that previously could not be solved in the framework of “traditional” paradigms and computational models. All mankind stands at the threshold of the so-called “second quantum revolution”, and its short-term and long-term consequences will affect virtually all spheres of life of a global society. Such directions and branches of science and technology as materials science, nanotechnology, pharmacology and biochemistry in general, modeling of chaotic dynamic processes (nuclear explosions, turbulent flows, weather and long-term climatic phenomena), etc. will be directly developed, as well as the solution of any problems, which reduce to the multiplication of matrices of large dimensions (in particular, the modeling of quantum systems). However, along with extraordinary opportunities, quantum technologies carry with them certain risks and threats, in particular, the scrapping of all information systems based on modern achievements in cryptography, which will entail almost complete destruction of secrecy, the global financial crisis due to the destruction of the banking sector and compromise of all communication channels. Even in spite of the fact that methods of so-called “post-quantum” cryptography are already being developed today, some risks still need to be realized, since not all long-term consequences can be calculated. At the same time, one should be prepared to all of the above, including by training specialists working in the field of quantum technologies and understanding all their aspects, new opportunities, risks and threats. In this connection, this article briefly describes the current state of quantum technologies, namely, quantum sensorics, information transfer using quantum protocols, a universal quantum computer (hardware), and quantum computations based on quantum algorithms (software). For all of the above, forecasts are given for the development of the impact on various areas of human civilization.

The work is devoted to numerical modeling of two-phase flows, namely, the calculation of supersonic flow around a blunt body by a viscous gas flow with an admixture of large high inertia particles. The system of unsteady Navier – Stokes equations is numerically solved by the meshless method. It uses the cloud of points in space to represent the fields of gas parameters. The spatial derivatives of gas parameters and functions are approximated by the least square method to calculate convective and viscous fluxes in the Navier – Stokes system of equations. The convective fluxes are calculated by the HLLC method. The third-order MUSCL reconstruction scheme is used to achieve high order accuracy. The viscous fluxes are calculated by the second order approximation scheme. The streamlined body surface is represented by a model of an isothermal wall. It implements the conditions for the zero velocity and zero pressure gradient, which is also modeled using the least squares method.

Every moving body is surrounded by its own cloud of points belongs to body’s domain and moving along with it in space. The explicit three-sage Runge–Kutta method is used to solve numerically the system of gas dynamics equations in the main coordinate system and local coordinate systems of each particle.

Two methods for the moving objects modeling with reverse impact on the gas flow have been implemented. The first one uses stationary point clouds with fixed neighbors within the same domain. When regions overlap, some nodes of one domain, for example, the boundary nodes of the particle domain, are excluded from the calculation and filled with the values of gas parameters from the nearest nodes of another domain using the least squares approximation of gradients. The internal nodes of the particle domain are used to reconstruct the gas parameters in the overlapped nodes of the main domain. The second method also uses the exclusion of nodes in overlapping areas, but in this case the nodes of another domain take the place of the excluded neighbors to build a single connected cloud of nodes. At the same time, some of the nodes are moving, and some are stationary. Nodes membership to different domains and their relative speed are taken into account when calculating fluxes.

The results of modeling the motion of a particle in a stationary gas and the flow around a stationary particle by an incoming flow at the same relative velocity show good agreement for both presented methods.

The paper presents the results of the fundamental research directed on the theoretical study and computer simulation of peculiarities of the quasi-harmonic signal’s phase statistical distribution. The quasi-harmonic signal is known to be formed as a result of the Gaussian noise impact on the initially harmonic signal. By means of the mathematical analysis the formulas have been obtained in explicit form for the principle characteristics of this distribution, namely: for the cumulative distribution function, the probability density function, the likelihood function. As a result of the conducted computer simulation the dependencies of these functions on the phase distribution parameters have been analyzed. The paper elaborates the methods of estimating the phase distribution parameters which contain the information about the initial, undistorted signal. It has been substantiated that the task of estimating the initial value of the phase of quasi-harmonic signal can be efficiently solved by averaging the results of the sampled measurements. As for solving the task of estimating the second parameter of the phase distribution, namely — the parameter, determining the signal level respectively the noise level — a maximum likelihood technique is proposed to be applied. The graphical illustrations are presented that have been obtained by means of the computer simulation of the principle characteristics of the phase distribution under the study. The existence and uniqueness of the likelihood function’s maximum allow substantiating the possibility and the efficiency of solving the task of estimating signal’s level relative to noise level by means of the maximum likelihood technique. The elaborated method of estimating the un-noised signal’s level relative to noise, i. e. the parameter characterizing the signal’s intensity on the basis of measurements of the signal’s phase is an original and principally new technique which opens perspectives of usage of the phase measurements as a tool of the stochastic data analysis. The presented investigation is meaningful for solving the task of determining the phase and the signal’s level by means of the statistical processing of the sampled phase measurements. The proposed methods of the estimation of the phase distribution’s parameters can be used at solving various scientific and technological tasks, in particular, in such areas as radio-physics, optics, radiolocation, radio-navigation, metrology.

The need to model high-speed flows of compressible media with shock waves in the presence of dense curtains or layers of particles arises when studying various processes, such as the dispersion of particles from a layer behind a shock wave or propagation of combustion waves in heterogeneous explosives. These directions have been successfully developed over the past few decades, but the corresponding mathematical models and computational algorithms continue to be actively improved. The mechanisms of wave processes in two-phase media differ in different models, so it is important to continue researching and improving these models.

The paper is devoted to the numerical study of the propagation of disturbances inside a sand bed under the action of successive impacts of a normally incident air shock wave. The setting of the problem follows the experiments of A. T.Akhmetov with co-authors. The aim of this study is to investigate the possible reasons for signal amplification on the pressure sensor within the bed, as observed under some conditions in experiments. The mathematical model is based on a one-dimensional system of Baer –Nunziato equations for describing dense flows of two-phase media taking into account intergranular stresses in the particle phase. The computational algorithm is based on the Godunov method for the Baer – Nunziato equations.

The paper describes the dynamics of waves inside and outside a particle bed after applying first and second pressure pulses to it. The main components of the flow within the bed are filtration waves in the gas phase and compaction waves in the solid phase. The compaction wave, generated by the first pulse and reflected from the walls of the shock tube, interacts with the filtration wave caused by the second pulse. As a result, the signal measured by the pressure sensor inside the bed has a sharp peak, explaining the new effect observed in experiments.

A model of forest insect population dynamics used to simulate of “forest-insect” interactions and for estimation of possible damages of forest stand by pests. This model represented a population as control system where the input variables characterized the influence of modifier (climatic) factors and the feedback loop describes the effect of regulatory factors (parasites, predators and population interactions). The technique of stress testing on the basis of population dynamics model proposed for assessment of the risks of forest stand damage and destruction after insect impact. The dangerous forest pest pine looper Bupalus piniarius L. considered as the object of analysis. Computer experiments were conducted to assess of outbreak risks with possible climate change in the territory of Central Siberia. Model experiments have shown that risk of insect impact on the forest is not increased significantly in condition of sufficiently moderate warming (not more than 4 °C in summer period). However, a stronger warming in the territory of Central Siberia, combined with a dry summer condition could cause a significant increase in the risk of pine looper outbreaks.

The reentry vehicle of the transportation spacecraft that is being created by RSC Energia in regular mode makes soft landing on land surface using a parachute system and thruster devices. But in not standard situations the reentry vehicle also is capable of executing a splashdown. In that case, it becomes important to define the hydrodynamics impact on the reentry vehicle at the moment of the first contact with the surface of water and during submersion into water medium, and to study the dynamics of the vehicle behavior at more recent moments of time.

This article presents results of numerical studies of hydrodynamics forces on the conical vehicle during splashdown, done with the FlowVision software. The paper reviews the cases of the splashdown with inactive solid rocket motors on calm sea and the cases with interactions between rocket jets and the water surface. It presents data on the allocation of pressure on the vehicle in the process of the vehicle immersion into water medium and dynamics of the vehicle behavior after splashdown. The paper also shows flow structures in the area of the reentry vehicle at the different moments of time, and integral forces and moments acting on the vehicle.

For simulation process with moving interphases in the FlowVision software realized the model VOF (volume of fluid). Transfer of the phase boundary is described by the equation of volume fraction of this continuous phase in a computational cell. Transfer contact surface is described by the convection equation, and at the surface tension is taken into account by the Laplace pressure. Key features of the method is the splitting surface cells where data is entered the corresponding phase. Equations for both phases (like the equations of continuity, momentum, energy and others) in the surface cells are accounted jointly.

The article covers several mathematical problems relating to elastic stability of thin shells in view of inconsistencies that have been recently identified between the experimental data and the predictions based on the shallow- shell theory. It is highlighted that the contradictions were caused by new algorithms that enabled updating the values of the so called “low critical stresses” calculated in the 20th century and adopted as a buckling criterion for thin shallow shells by technical standards. The new calculations often find the low critical stress close to zero. Therefore, the low critical stress cannot be used as a safety factor for the buckling analysis of the thinwalled structure, and the equations of the shallow-shell theory need to be replaced with other differential equations. The new theory also requires a buckling criterion ensuring the match between calculations and experimental data.

The article demonstrates that the contradiction with the new experiments can be resolved within the dynamic nonlinear three-dimensional theory of elasticity. The stress when bifurcation of dynamic modes occurs shall be taken as a buckling criterion. The nonlinear form of original equations causes solitary (solitonic) waves that match non-smooth displacements (patterns, dents) of the shells. It is essential that the solitons make an impact at all stages of loading and significantly increase closer to bifurcation. The solitonic solutions are illustrated based on the thin cylindrical momentless shell when its three-dimensional volume is simulated with twodimensional surface of the set thickness. It is noted that the pattern-generating waves can be detected (and their amplitudes can by identified) with acoustic or electromagnetic devices.

Thus, it is technically possible to reduce the risk of failure of the thin shells by monitoring the shape of the surface with acoustic devices. The article concludes with a setting of the mathematical problems requiring the solution for the reliable numerical assessment of the buckling criterion for thin elastic shells.

А discrete element model is applied to the problem of a spherical projectile penetration into a massive obstacle. According to the model both indenter and obstacle are described by a set of densely packed particles. To model the interaction between the particles the two-parameter Lennard–Jones potential is used. Computer implementation of the model has been carried out using parallelism on GPUs, which resulted in high spatial — temporal resolution. Based on the comparison of the results of numerical simulation with experimental data the binding energy has been identified as a function of the dynamic hardness of materials. It is shown that the use of this approach allows to accurately describe the penetration process in the range of projectile velocities 500–2500 m/c.