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This paper presents algorithm for modeling set of trajectories of non-stationary time series, based on a numerical scheme for approximating the sample density of the distribution function in a problem with fixed ends, when the initial distribution for a given number of steps transforms into a certain final distribution, so that at each step the semigroup property of solving the Liouville equation is satisfied. The model makes it possible to numerically construct evolving densities of distribution functions during random switching of states of the system generating the original time series.

The main problem is related to the fact that with the numerical implementation of the left-hand differential derivative in time, the solution becomes unstable, but such approach corresponds to the modeling of evolution. An integrative approach is used while choosing implicit stable schemes with “going into the future”, this does not match the semigroup property at each step. If, on the other hand, some real process is being modeled, in which goal-setting presumably takes place, then it is desirable to use schemes that generate a model of the transition process. Such model is used in the future in order to build a predictor of the disorder, which will allow you to determine exactly what state the process under study is going into, before the process really went into it. The model described in the article can be used as a tool for modeling real non-stationary time series.

Steps of the modeling scheme are described further. Fragments corresponding to certain states are selected from a given time series, for example, trends with specified slope angles and variances. Reference distributions of states are compiled from these fragments. Then the empirical distributions of the duration of the system’s stay in the specified states and the duration of the transition time from state to state are determined. In accordance with these empirical distributions, a probabilistic model of the disorder is constructed and the corresponding trajectories of the time series are modeled.

The paper presents the results of theoretical investigation of the peculiarities of the quasi-harmonic signal’s phase statistical distribution, while the quasi-harmonic signal is formed as a result of the Gaussian noise impact on the initially harmonic signal. The revealed features of the phase distribution became a basis for the original technique elaborated for estimating the parameters of the initial, undistorted signal. It has been shown that the task of estimation of the initial phase value can be efficiently solved by calculating the magnitude of the mathematical expectation of the results of the phase sampled measurements, while for solving the task of estimation of the second parameter — the signal level respectively to the noise level — the dependence of the phase sampled measurements variance upon the sough-for parameter is proposed to be used. For solving this task the analytical formulas having been obtained in explicit form for the moments of lower orders of the phase distribution, are applied. A new approach to quasi-harmonic signal’s parameters estimation based on the method of moments has been developed and substantiated. In particular, the application of this method ensures a high-precision measuring the amplitude characteristics of a signal by means of the phase measurements only. The numerical results obtained by means of conducted computer simulation of the elaborated technique confirm both the theoretical conclusions and the method’s efficiency. The existence and the uniqueness of the task solution by the method of moments is substantiated. It is shown that the function that describes the dependence of the phase second central moment on the sough-for parameter, is a monotonically decreasing and thus the single-valued function. The developed method may be of interest for solving a wide range of scientific and applied tasks, connected with the necessity of estimation of both the signal level and the phase value, in such areas as data processing in systems of medical diagnostic visualization, radio-signals processing, radio-physics, optics, radio-navigation and metrology.

The effectiveness of communication and data transmission systems (CSiPS), which are an integral part of modern systems in almost any field of science and technology, largely depends on the stability of the frequency of the generated signals. The signals generated in the CSiPD can be considered as processes, the frequency of which changes under the influence of a combination of external influences. Changing the frequency of the signals leads to a decrease in the signal-tonoise ratio (SNR) and, consequently, a deterioration in the characteristics of the signal-to-noise ratio, such as the probability of a bit error and bandwidth. It is most convenient to consider the description of such changes in the frequency of signals as random processes, the apparatus of which is widely used in the construction of mathematical models describing the functioning of systems and devices in various fields of science and technology. Moreover, in many cases, the characteristics of a random process, such as the distribution law, mathematical expectation, and variance, may be unknown or known with errors that do not allow us to obtain estimates of the signal parameters that are acceptable in accuracy. The article proposes an algorithm for solving the problem of determining the characteristics of a random process (signal frequency) based on a set of samples of its frequency, allowing to determine the sample mean, sample variance and the distribution law of frequency deviations in the general population. The basis of this algorithm is the comparison of the values of the observed random process measured over a certain time interval with a set of the same number of random values formed on the basis of model distribution laws. Distribution laws based on mathematical models of these systems and devices or corresponding to similar systems and devices can be considered as model distribution laws. When forming a set of random values for the accepted model distribution law, the sample mean value and variance obtained from the measurement results of the observed random process are used as mathematical expectation and variance. The feature of the algorithm is to compare the measured values of the observed random process ordered in ascending or descending order and the generated sets of values in accordance with the accepted models of distribution laws. The results of mathematical modeling illustrating the application of this algorithm are presented.