Результаты поиска по 'economic systems':
Найдено статей: 29
  1. Matyushkin I.V., Zapletina M.A.
    Cellular automata review based on modern domestic publications
    Computer Research and Modeling, 2019, v. 11, no. 1, pp. 9-57

    The paper contains the analysis of the domestic publications issued in 2013–2017 years and devoted to cellular automata. The most of them concern on mathematical modeling. Scientometric schedules for 1990–2017 years have proved relevance of subject. The review allows to allocate the main personalities and the scientific directions/schools in modern Russian science, to reveal their originality or secondness in comparison with world science. Due to the authors choice of national publications basis instead of world, the paper claims the completeness and the fact is that about 200 items from the checked 526 references have an importance for science.

    In the Annex to the review provides preliminary information about CA — the Game of Life, a theorem about gardens of Eden, elementary CAs (together with the diagram of de Brujin), block Margolus’s CAs, alternating CAs. Attention is paid to three important for modeling semantic traditions of von Neumann, Zuse and Zetlin, as well as to the relationship with the concepts of neural networks and Petri nets. It is allocated conditional 10 works, which should be familiar to any specialist in CA. Some important works of the 1990s and later are listed in the Introduction.

    Then the crowd of publications is divided into categories: the modification of the CA and other network models (29 %), Mathematical properties of the CA and the connection with mathematics (5 %), Hardware implementation (3 %), Software implementation (5 %), Data Processing, recognition and Cryptography (8 %), Mechanics, physics and chemistry (20 %), Biology, ecology and medicine (15 %), Economics, urban studies and sociology (15 %). In parentheses the share of subjects in the array are indicated. There is an increase in publications on CA in the humanitarian sphere, as well as the emergence of hybrid approaches, leading away from the classic CA definition.

    Views (last year): 58.
  2. Verichev N.N., Verichev S.N., Erofeev V.I.
    Stationary states and bifurcations in a one-dimensional active medium of oscillators
    Computer Research and Modeling, 2023, v. 15, no. 3, pp. 491-512

    This article presents the results of an analytical and computer study of the collective dynamic properties of a chain of self-oscillating systems (conditionally — oscillators). It is assumed that the couplings of individual elements of the chain are non-reciprocal, unidirectional. More precisely, it is assumed that each element of the chain is under the influence of the previous one, while the reverse reaction is absent (physically insignificant). This is the main feature of the chain. This system can be interpreted as an active discrete medium with unidirectional transfer, in particular, the transfer of a matter. Such chains can represent mathematical models of real systems having a lattice structure that occur in various fields of natural science and technology: physics, chemistry, biology, radio engineering, economics, etc. They can also represent models of technological and computational processes. Nonlinear self-oscillating systems (conditionally, oscillators) with a wide “spectrum” of potentially possible individual self-oscillations, from periodic to chaotic, were chosen as the “elements” of the lattice. This allows one to explore various dynamic modes of the chain from regular to chaotic, changing the parameters of the elements and not changing the nature of the elements themselves. The joint application of qualitative methods of the theory of dynamical systems and qualitative-numerical methods allows one to obtain a clear picture of all possible dynamic regimes of the chain. The conditions for the existence and stability of spatially-homogeneous dynamic regimes (deterministic and chaotic) of the chain are studied. The analytical results are illustrated by a numerical experiment. The dynamical regimes of the chain are studied under perturbations of parameters at its boundary. The possibility of controlling the dynamic regimes of the chain by turning on the necessary perturbation at the boundary is shown. Various cases of the dynamics of chains comprised of inhomogeneous (different in their parameters) elements are considered. The global chaotic synchronization (of all oscillators in the chain) is studied analytically and numerically.

  3. Khavinson M.J., Kulakov M.P., Frisman Y.Y.
    Mathematical modeling of the age groups of employed peoples by the example of the southern regions of the Russian Far East
    Computer Research and Modeling, 2016, v. 8, no. 5, pp. 787-801

    The article focuses on a nonlinear mathematical model that describes the interaction of the different age groups of the employed population. The interactions are treated by analogy with population relationship (competition, discrimination, assistance, oppression, etc). Under interaction of peoples we mean the generalized social and economic mechanisms that cause related changes in the number of employees of different age groups. Three age groups of the employed population are considered. It is young specialists (15–29 years), workers with experience (30–49 years), the employees of pre-retirement and retirement age (50 and older). The estimation of model’s parameters for the southern regions of the Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD) is executed by statistical data. Analysis of model scenarios allows us to conclude the observed number fluctuations of the different ages employees on the background of a stable total employed population may be a consequence of complex interactions between these groups of peoples. Computational experiments with the obtained values of the parameters allowed us to calculate the rate of decline and the aging of the working population and to determine the nature of the interaction between the age groups of employees that are not directly as reflected in the statistics. It was found that in FEFD the employed of 50 years and older are discriminated against by the young workers under 29, employed up to 29 and 30–49 years are in a partnership. It is shown in most developed regions (Primorsky and Khabarovsk Krai) there is “uniform” competition among different age groups of the employed population. For Primorsky Krai we were able to identify the mixing effect dynamics. It is a typical situation for systems in a state of structural adjustment. This effect is reflected in the fact the long cycles of employed population form with a significant decrease in migration inflows of employees 30–49 years. Besides, the change of migration is accompanied by a change of interaction type — from employment discrimination by the oldest of middle generation to discrimination by the middle of older generation. In less developed regions (Amur, Magadan and Jewish Autonomous Regions) there are lower values of migration balance of almost all age groups and discrimination by young workers up 29 years of other age groups and employment discrimination 30–49 years of the older generation.

    Views (last year): 4. Citations: 3 (RSCI).
  4. Malkov S.Yu.
    World dynamics patterns modeling
    Computer Research and Modeling, 2017, v. 9, no. 3, pp. 419-432

    In the article is carried out the analysis of historical process with the use of methods of synergetics (science about the nonlinear developing systems in nature and the society), developed in the works of D. S. Chernavskii in connection with to economic and social systems. It is shown that social self-organizing depending on conditions leads to the formation of both the societies with the strong internal competition (Y-structures) and cooperative type societies (X-structures). Y-structures are characteristic for the countries of the West, X-structure are characteristic for the countries of the East. It is shown that in XIX and in XX centuries occurred accelerated shaping and strengthening of Y-structures. However, at present world system entered into the period of serious structural changes in the economic, political, ideological spheres: the domination of Y-structures concludes. Are examined the possible ways of further development of the world system, connected with change in the regimes of self-organizing and limitation of internal competition. This passage will be prolonged and complex. Under these conditions it will objectively grow the value of the civilizational experience of Russia, on basis of which was formed combined type social system. It is shown that ultimately inevitable the passage from the present do-mination of Y-structures to the absolutely new global system, whose stability will be based on the new ideology, the new spirituality (i.e., new “conditional information” according D. S. Chernavskii), which makes a turn from the principles of competition to the principles of collaboration.

    Views (last year): 17.
  5. Ougolnitsky G.A., Usov A.B.
    Game-theoretic model of coordinations of interests at innovative development of corporations
    Computer Research and Modeling, 2016, v. 8, no. 4, pp. 673-684

    Dynamic game theoretic models of the corporative innovative development are investigated. The proposed models are based on concordance of private and public interests of agents. It is supposed that the structure of interests of each agent includes both private (personal interests) and public (interests of the whole company connected with its innovative development first) components. The agents allocate their personal resources between these two directions. The system dynamics is described by a difference (not differential) equation. The proposed model of innovative development is studied by simulation and the method of enumeration of the domains of feasible controls with a constant step. The main contribution of the paper consists in comparative analysis of efficiency of the methods of hierarchical control (compulsion or impulsion) for information structures of Stackelberg or Germeier (four structures) by means of the indices of system compatibility. The proposed model is a universal one and can be used for a scientifically grounded support of the programs of innovative development of any economic firm. The features of a specific company are considered in the process of model identification (a determination of the specific classes of model functions and numerical values of its parameters) which forms a separate complex problem and requires an analysis of the statistical data and expert estimations. The following assumptions about information rules of the hierarchical game are accepted: all players use open-loop strategies; the leader chooses and reports to the followers some values of administrative (compulsion) or economic (impulsion) control variables which can be only functions of time (Stackelberg games) or depend also on the followers’ controls (Germeier games); given the leader’s strategies all followers simultaneously and independently choose their strategies that gives a Nash equilibrium in the followers’ game. For a finite number of iterations the proposed algorithm of simulation modeling allows to build an approximate solution of the model or to conclude that it doesn’t exist. A reliability and efficiency of the proposed algorithm follow from the properties of the scenario method and the method of a direct ordered enumeration with a constant step. Some comprehensive conclusions about the comparative efficiency of methods of hierarchical control of innovations are received.

    Views (last year): 9. Citations: 6 (RSCI).
  6. Different versions of the shifting mode of reproduction models describe set of the macroeconomic production subsystems interacting with each other, to each of which there corresponds the household. These subsystems differ among themselves on age of the fixed capital used by them as they alternately stop production for its updating by own forces (for repair of the equipment and for introduction of the innovations increasing production efficiency). It essentially distinguishes this type of models from the models describing the mode of joint reproduction in case of which updating of fixed capital and production of a product happen simultaneously. Models of the shifting mode of reproduction allow to describe mechanisms of such phenomena as cash circulations and amortization, and also to describe different types of monetary policy, allow to interpret mechanisms of economic growth in a new way. Unlike many other macroeconomic models, model of this class in which the subsystems competing among themselves serially get an advantage in comparison with the others because of updating, essentially not equilibrium. They were originally described as a systems of ordinary differential equations with abruptly varying coefficients. In the numerical calculations which were carried out for these systems depending on parameter values and initial conditions both regular, and not regular dynamics was revealed. This paper shows that the simplest versions of this model without the use of additional approximations can be represented in a discrete form (in the form of non-linear mappings) with different variants (continuous and discrete) financial flows between subsystems (interpreted as wages and subsidies). This form of representation is more convenient for receipt of analytical results as well as for a more economical and accurate numerical calculations. In particular, its use allowed to determine the entry conditions corresponding to coordinated and sustained economic growth without systematic lagging in production of a product of one subsystems from others.

    Views (last year): 1. Citations: 4 (RSCI).
  7. Makarova I.V., Shubenkova K.A., Mavrin V.G., Boyko A.D.
    Specifics of public transport routing in cities of different types
    Computer Research and Modeling, 2021, v. 13, no. 2, pp. 381-394

    This article presents a classification of cities, taking into account their spatial planning and possible transport solutions for cities of various types. It also discusses examples of various strategies for the development of urban public transport in Russia and the European Union with a comparison of their efficiency. The article gives examples of the impact of urban planning on mobility of citizens. To implement complex strategic decisions, it is necessary to use micro and macro models which allow a comparison of situations “as is” and “as to be” to predict consequences. In addition, the authors propose a methodology to improve public transport route network and road network, which includes determining population needs in working and educational correspondences, identifying bottlenecks in the road network, developing simulation models and developing recommendations based on the simulation results, as well as the calculation of efficiency, including the calculation of a positive social effect, economic efficiency, environmental friendliness and sustainability of the urban transport system. To prove the suggested methodology, the macro and micro models of the city under study were built taking into account the spatial planning and other specifics of the city. Thus, the case study of the city of Naberezhnye Chelny shows that the use of our methodology can help to improve the situation on the roads by optimizing the bus route network and the road infrastructure. The results showed that by implementing the proposed solutions one can decrease the amount of transport load on the bottlenecks, the number of overlapping bus routes and the traffic density.

  8. Davydov D.V., Shapoval A.B., Yamilov A.I.
    Languages in China provinces: quantitative estimation with incomplete data
    Computer Research and Modeling, 2016, v. 8, no. 4, pp. 707-716

    This paper formulates and solves a practical problem of data recovery regarding the distribution of languages on regional level in context of China. The necessity of this recovery is related to the problem of the determination of the linguistic diversity indices, which, in turn, are used to analyze empirically and to predict sources of social and economic development as well as to indicate potential conflicts at regional level. We use Ethnologue database and China census as the initial data sources. For every language spoken in China, the data contains (a) an estimate of China residents who claim this language to be their mother tongue, and (b) indicators of the presence of such residents in China provinces. For each pair language/province, we aim to estimate the number of the province inhabitants that claim the language to be their mother tongue. This base problem is reduced to solving an undetermined system of algebraic equations. Given additional restriction that Ethnologue database introduces data collected at different time moments because of gaps in Ethnologue language surveys and accompanying data collection expenses, we relate those data to a single time moment, that turns the initial task to an ’ill-posed’ system of algebraic equations with imprecisely determined right hand side. Therefore, we are looking for an approximate solution characterized by a minimal discrepancy of the system. Since some languages are much less distributed than the others, we minimize the weighted discrepancy, introducing weights that are inverse to the right hand side elements of the equations. This definition of discrepancy allows to recover the required variables. More than 92% of the recovered variables are robust to probabilistic modelling procedure for potential errors in initial data.

    Views (last year): 3.
  9. Varshavsky L.E.
    Uncertainty factor in modeling dynamics of economic systems
    Computer Research and Modeling, 2018, v. 10, no. 2, pp. 261-276

    Analysis and practical aspects of implementing developed in the control theory robust control methods in studying economic systems is carried out. The main emphasis is placed on studying results obtained for dynamical systems with structured uncertainty. Practical aspects of implementing such results in control of economic systems on the basis of dynamical models with uncertain parameters and perturbations (stabilization of price on the oil market and inflation in macroeconomic systems) are discussed. With the help of specially constructed aggregate model of oil price dynamics studied the problem of finding control which provides minimal deviation of price from desired levels over middle range period. The second real problem considered in the article consists in determination of stabilizing control providing minimal deviation of inflation from desired levels (on the basis of constructed aggregate macroeconomic model of the USA over middle range period).

    Upper levels of parameters uncertainty and control laws guaranteeing stabilizability of the real considered economic systems have been found using the robust method of control with structured uncertainty. At the same time we have come to the conclusion that received estimates of parameters uncertainty upper levels are conservative. Monte-Carlo experiments carried out for the article made it possible to analyze dynamics of oil price and inflation under received limit levels of models parameters uncertainty and under implementing found robust control laws for the worst and the best scenarios. Results of these experiments show that received robust control laws may be successfully used under less stringent uncertainty constraints than it is guaranteed by sufficient conditions of stabilization.

    Views (last year): 39.
  10. Oleynik E.B., Ivashina N.V., Shmidt Y.D.
    Migration processes modelling: methods and tools (overview)
    Computer Research and Modeling, 2021, v. 13, no. 6, pp. 1205-1232

    Migration has a significant impact on the shaping of the demographic structure of the territories population, the state of regional and local labour markets. As a rule, rapid change in the working-age population of any territory due to migration processes results in an imbalance in supply and demand on labour markets and a change in the demographic structure of the population. Migration is also to a large extent a reflection of socio-economic processes taking place in the society. Hence, the issues related to the study of migration factors, the direction, intensity and structure of migration flows, and the prediction of their magnitude are becoming topical issues these days.

    Mathematical tools are often used to analyze, predict migration processes and assess their consequences, allowing for essentially accurate modelling of migration processes for different territories on the basis of the available statistical data. In recent years, quite a number of scientific papers on modelling internal and external migration flows using mathematical methods have appeared both in Russia and in foreign countries in recent years. Consequently, there has been a need to systematize the currently most commonly used methods and tools applied in migration modelling to form a coherent picture of the main trends and research directions in this field.

    The presented review considers the main approaches to migration modelling and the main components of migration modelling methodology, i. e. stages, methods, models and model classification. Their comparative analysis was also conducted and general recommendations on the choice of mathematical tools for modelling were developed. The review contains two sections: migration modelling methods and migration models. The first section describes the main methods used in the model development process — econometric, cellular automata, system-dynamic, probabilistic, balance, optimization and cluster analysis. Based on the analysis of modern domestic and foreign publications on migration, the most common classes of models — regression, agent-based, simulation, optimization, probabilistic, balance, dynamic and combined — were identified and described. The features, advantages and disadvantages of different types of migration process models were considered.

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