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A mathematical model of tumor growth in tissue taking into account angiogenesis and antiangiogenic therapy is developed. In the model the convective flows in tissue are considered as well as individual motility of tumor cells. It is considered that a cell starts to migrate if the nutrient concentration falls lower than the critical level and returns into proliferation in the region with high nutrient concentration. Malignant cells in the state of metabolic stress produce vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), stimulating tumor angiogenesis, which increases the nutrient supply. In this work an antiangiogenic drug which bounds irreversibly to VEGF, converting it to inactive form, is modeled. Numerical analysis of influence of antiangiogenic drug concentration and efficiency on tumor rate of growth and structure is performed. It is shown that antiangiogenic therapy can decrease the growth of low-invasive tumor, but is not able to stop it completely.

Numerical simulation of moving sportsman external flow is presented. The unique method is developed for obtaining integral aerodynamic characteristics, which were the function of the flow regime (i.e. angle of attack, flow speed) and body position. Individual anthropometric characteristics and moving boundaries of sportsman (or sports equipment) during the race are taken into consideration.

Numerical simulation is realized using FlowVision CFD. The software is based on the finite volume method, high-performance numerical methods and reliable mathematical models of physical processes. A Cartesian computational grid is used by FlowVision, the grid generation is a completely automated process. Local grid adaptation is used for solving high-pressure gradient and object complex shape. Flow simulation process performed by solutions systems of equations describing movement of fluid and/or gas in the computational domain, including: mass, moment and energy conservation equations; state equations; turbulence model equations. FlowVision permits flow simulation near moving bodies by means of computational domain transformation according to the athlete shape changes in the motion. Ski jumper aerodynamic characteristics are studied during all phases: take-off performance in motion, in-run and flight. Projected investigation defined simulation method, which includes: inverted statement of sportsman external flow development (velocity of the motion is equal to air flow velocity, object is immobile); changes boundary of the body technology defining; multiple calculations with the national team member data projecting. The research results are identification of the main factors affected to jumping performance: aerodynamic forces, rotating moments etc. Developed method was tested with active sportsmen. Ski jumpers used this method during preparations for Sochi Olympic Games 2014. A comparison of the predicted characteristics and experimental data shows a good agreement. Method versatility is underlined by performing swimmer and skater flow simulation. Designed technology is applicable for sorts of natural and technical objects.

We comsider a model of the dynamics a political system of several parties, accompanied and controlled by the growth of social tension. A system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is proposed with respect to fractions and an additional scalar variable characterizing the magnitude of tension in society the change of each party is proportional to the current value multiplied by a coefficient that consists of an influx of novice, a flow from competing parties, and a loss due to the growth of social tension. The change in tension is made up of party contributions and own relaxation. The number of parties is fixed, there are no mechanisms in the model for combining existing or the birth of new parties.

To study of possible scenarios of the dynamic processes of the model we derive an approach based on the selection of conditions under which this problem belongs to the class of cosymmetric systems. For the case of two parties, it is shown that in the system under consideration may have two families of equilibria, as well as a family of limit cycles. The existence of cosymmetry for a system of differential equations is ensured by the presence of additional constraints on the parameters, and in this case, the emergence of continuous families of stationary and nonstationary solutions is possible. To analyze the scenarios of cosymmetry breaking, an approach based on the selective function is applied. In the case of one political party, there is no multistability, one stable solution corresponds to each set of parameters. For the case of two parties, it is shown that in the system under consideration may have two families of equilibria, as well as a family of limit cycles. The results of numerical experiments demonstrating the destruction of the families and the implementation of various scenarios leading to the stabilization of the political system with the coexistence of both parties or to the disappearance of one of the parties, when part of the population ceases to support one of the parties and becomes indifferent are presented.

This model can be used to predict the inter-party struggle during the election campaign. In this case necessary to take into account the dependence of the coefficients of the system on time.

Simulation of combat and military operations is the most important scientific and practical task aimed at providing the command of quantitative bases for decision-making. The first models of combat were developed during the First World War (M. Osipov, F. Lanchester), and now they are widely used in connection with the massive introduction of automation tools. At the same time, the models of combat and war do not fully take into account the moral potentials of the parties to the conflict, which motivates and motivates the further development of models of battle and war. A probabilistic model of combat is considered, in which the parameter of combat superiority is determined through the parameter of moral (the ratio of the percentages of the losses sustained by the parties) and the parameter of technological superiority. To assess the latter, the following is taken into account: command experience (ability to organize coordinated actions), reconnaissance, fire and maneuverability capabilities of the parties and operational (combat) support capabilities. A game-based offensive-defense model has been developed, taking into account the actions of the first and second echelons (reserves) of the parties. The target function of the attackers in the model is the product of the probability of a breakthrough by the first echelon of one of the defense points by the probability of the second echelon of the counterattack repelling the reserve of the defenders. Solved the private task of managing the breakthrough of defense points and found the optimal distribution of combat units between the trains. The share of troops allocated by the parties to the second echelon (reserve) increases with an increase in the value of the aggregate combat superiority parameter of those advancing and decreases with an increase in the value of the combat superiority parameter when repelling a counterattack. When planning a battle (battles, operations) and the distribution of its troops between echelons, it is important to know not the exact number of enemy troops, but their capabilities and capabilities, as well as the degree of preparedness of the defense, which does not contradict the experience of warfare. Depending on the conditions of the situation, the goal of an offensive may be to defeat the enemy, quickly capture an important area in the depth of the enemy’s defense, minimize their losses, etc. For scaling the offensive-defense model for targets, the dependencies of the losses and the onset rate on the initial ratio of the combat potentials of the parties were found. The influence of social costs on the course and outcome of wars is taken into account. A theoretical explanation is given of a loss in a military company with a technologically weak adversary and with a goal of war that is unclear to society. To account for the influence of psychological operations and information wars on the moral potential of individuals, a model of social and information influence was used.

Modern mathematical models in the dynamics system “soil–plant” are considered. The components of this system are: agricultural plant, microorganisms of the rhizosphere (root zone of plants), the mineral nutrition elements of plants in their mobile and immobile forms. The model of submitted system based on the analysis of the adopted provisions was developed. The construction of system elements allows to display the coordinated dynamics of these elements among themselves. In particular, the dynamics of mineral nutrition elements in plants and the dynamics of their biomass are determined by the current contents in the rhizosphere of mineral fertilizers and organic origin substances (plant roots, leaves, etc.). The immobility of plants spatial distribution and the mobile spatial nature of microorganisms are assumed. This mechanism is determined by diffusion. Mutual relationships between weeds and pests are suggested. The dynamics of the mineral nutrition elements is determined by the peculiarity of sorption in the soil solution, environmental conditions, organic decomposition and fertilizer application. An analytical study for a system where each of the components is represented by only one species (fertilizer, the association of microorganisms and plants) was performed. An adaptation of the wave propagation model in the “resource–consumer” system (Kolmogorov–Petrovsky–Piskunov waves) has been developed for annual agricultural crops. The developed model has been adapted for the growth of Krasnoufimskaya-100 spring wheat in a vessel on peat lowland soil, where nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers were added variably. Sample distributions are plants biomass and the content of mineral nutrition elements in them. The parametric identification of the model and its adequacy was performed. An assessment of the model adequacy showed a good agreement between the model and experimental data.

Radiopharmaceuticals with iodine radioisotopes are now widely used in imaging and non-imaging methods of nuclear medicine. When evaluating the results of radionuclide studies of the structural and functional state of organs and tissues, parallel modeling of the kinetics of radiopharmaceuticals in the body plays an important role. The complexity of such modeling lies in two opposite aspects. On the one hand, excessive simplification of the anatomical and physiological characteristics of the organism when splitting it to the compartments that may result in the loss or distortion of important clinical diagnosis information, on the other – excessive, taking into account all possible interdependencies of the functioning of the organs and systems that, on the contrary, will lead to excess amount of absolutely useless for clinical interpretation of the data or the mathematical model becomes even more intractable. Our work develops a unified approach to the construction of mathematical models of the kinetics of radiopharmaceuticals with iodine isotopes in the human body during diagnostic and therapeutic procedures of nuclear medicine. Based on this approach, three- and four-compartment pharmacokinetic models were developed and corresponding calculation programs were created in the C⁺⁺ programming language for processing and evaluating the results of radionuclide diagnostics and therapy. Various methods for identifying model parameters based on quantitative data from radionuclide studies of the functional state of vital organs are proposed. The results of pharmacokinetic modeling for radionuclide diagnostics of the liver, kidney, and thyroid using iodine-containing radiopharmaceuticals are presented and analyzed. Using clinical and diagnostic data, individual pharmacokinetic parameters of transport of different radiopharmaceuticals in the body (transport constants, half-life periods, maximum activity in the organ and the time of its achievement) were determined. It is shown that the pharmacokinetic characteristics for each patient are strictly individual and cannot be described by averaged kinetic parameters. Within the framework of three pharmacokinetic models, “Activity–time” relationships were obtained and analyzed for different organs and tissues, including for tissues in which the activity of a radiopharmaceutical is impossible or difficult to measure by clinical methods. Also discussed are the features and the results of simulation and dosimetric planning of radioiodine therapy of the thyroid gland. It is shown that the values of absorbed radiation doses are very sensitive to the kinetic parameters of the compartment model. Therefore, special attention should be paid to obtaining accurate quantitative data from ultrasound and thyroid radiometry and identifying simulation parameters based on them. The work is based on the principles and methods of pharmacokinetics. For the numerical solution of systems of differential equations of the pharmacokinetic models we used Runge–Kutta methods and Rosenbrock method. The Hooke–Jeeves method was used to find the minimum of a function of several variables when identifying modeling parameters.

The paper provides a comparative analysis of the results obtained by various approaches to modeling the process of artillery shot. In this connection, the main problem of internal ballistics and its particular case of the Lagrange problem are formulated in averaged parameters, where, within the framework of the assumptions of the thermodynamic approach, the distribution of pressure and gas velocity over the projectile space for a channel of variable cross section is taken into account for the first time. The statement of the Lagrange problem is also presented in the framework of the gas-dynamic approach, taking into account the spatial (one-dimensional and two-dimensional axisymmetric) changes in the characteristics of the ballistic process. The control volume method is used to numerically solve the system of Euler gas-dynamic equations. Gas parameters at the boundaries of control volumes are determined using a selfsimilar solution to the Riemann problem. Based on the Godunov method, a modification of the Osher scheme is proposed, which allows to implement a numerical calculation algorithm with a second order of accuracy in coordinate and time. The solutions obtained in the framework of the thermodynamic and gas-dynamic approaches are compared for various loading parameters. The effect of projectile mass and chamber broadening on the distribution of the ballistic parameters of the shot and the dynamics of the projectile motion was studied. It is shown that the thermodynamic approach, in comparison with the gas-dynamic approach, leads to a systematic overestimation of the estimated muzzle velocity of the projectile in the entire range of parameters studied, while the difference in muzzle velocity can reach 35%. At the same time, the discrepancy between the results obtained in the framework of one-dimensional and two-dimensional gas-dynamic models of the shot in the same range of change in parameters is not more than 1.3%.

A spatial gas-dynamic formulation of the backpressure problem is given, which describes the change in pressure in front of an accelerating projectile as it moves along the barrel channel. It is shown that accounting the projectile’s front, considered in the two-dimensional axisymmetric formulation of the problem, leads to a significant difference in the pressure fields behind the front of the shock wave, compared with the solution in the framework of the onedimensional formulation of the problem, where the projectile’s front is not possible to account. It is concluded that this can significantly affect the results of modeling ballistics of a shot at high shooting velocities.

The article dwells upon investigating the issue of the most adequate tools developing and justifying to forecast the interregional migration flows value and structure. Migration processes have a significant impact on the size and demographic structure of the population of territories, the state and balance of regional and local labor markets.

To analyze the migration processes and to assess their impact an economic-mathematical tool is required which would be instrumental in modelling the migration processes and flows for different areas with the desired precision. The current methods and approaches to the migration processes modelling, including the analysis of their advantages and disadvantages, were considered. It is noted that to implement many of these methods mass aggregated statistical data is required which is not always available and doesn’t characterize the migrants behavior at the local level where the decision to move to a new dwelling place is made. This has a significant impact on the ability to apply appropriate migration processes modelling techniques and on the projection accuracy of the migration flows magnitude and structure.

The cellular automata model for interregional migration flows modelling, implementing the integration of the households migration behavior model under the conditions of the Bounded Rationality into the general model of the area migration flow was developed and tested based on the Primorye Territory data. To implement the households migration behavior model under the conditions of the Bounded Rationality the integral attractiveness index of the regions with economic, social and ecological components was proposed in the work.

To evaluate the prognostic capacity of the developed model, it was compared with the available cellular automata models used to predict interregional migration flows. The out of sample prediction method which showed statistically significant superiority of the proposed model was applied for this purpose. The model allows obtaining the forecasts and quantitative characteristics of the areas migration flows based on the households real migration behaviour at the local level taking into consideration their living conditions and behavioural motives.

The article considers a bilinear model of the influence of external disturbances on the stability of the structure of social systems. Approaches to the third-party stabilization of the initial system consisting of two groups are investigated — by reducing the initial system to a linear system with uncertain parameters and using the results of the theory of linear dynamic games with a quadratic criterion. The influence of the coefficients of the proposed model of the social system and the control parameters on the quality of the system stabilization is analyzed with the help of computer experiments. It is shown that the use of a minimax strategy by a third party in the form of feedback control leads to a relatively close convergence of the population of the second group (excited by external influences) to an acceptable level, even with unfavorable periodic dynamic perturbations.

The influence of one of the key coefficients in the criterion $(\varepsilon)$ used to compensate for the effects of external disturbances (the latter are present in the linear model in the form of uncertainty) on the quality of system stabilization is investigated. Using Z-transform, it is shown that a decrease in the coefficient $\varepsilon$ should lead to an increase in the values of the sum of the squares of the control. The computer calculations carried out in the article also show that the improvement of the convergence of the system structure to the equilibrium level with a decrease in this coefficient is achieved due to sharp changes in control in the initial period, which may induce the transition of some members of the quiet group to the second, excited group.

The article also examines the influence of the values of the model coefficients that characterize the level of social tension on the quality of management. Calculations show that an increase in the level of social tension (all other things being equal) leads to the need for a significant increase in the third party's stabilizing efforts, as well as the value of control at the transition period.

The results of the statistical modeling carried out in the article show that the calculated feedback controls successfully compensate for random disturbances on the social system (both in the form of «white» noise, and of autocorrelated disturbances).

In many social groups, for example, in technical committees for standardization, at the international, regional and national levels, in European communities, managers of ecovillages, social movements (occupy), international organizations, decision-making is based on the consensus of the group members. Instead of voting, where the majority wins over the minority, consensus allows for a solution that each member of the group supports, or at least considers acceptable. This approach ensures that all group members’ opinions, ideas and needs are taken into account. At the same time, it is noted that reaching consensus takes a long time, since it is necessary to ensure agreement within the group, regardless of its size. It was shown that in some situations the number of iterations (agreements, negotiations) is very significant. Moreover, in the decision-making process, there is always a risk of blocking the decision by the minority in the group, which not only delays the decisionmaking time, but makes it impossible. Typically, such a minority is one or two odious people in the group. At the same time, such a member of the group tries to dominate in the discussion, always remaining in his opinion, ignoring the position of other colleagues. This leads to a delay in the decision-making process, on the one hand, and a deterioration in the quality of consensus, on the other, since only the opinion of the dominant member of the group has to be taken into account. To overcome the crisis in this situation, it was proposed to make a decision on the principle of «consensus minus one» or «consensus minus two», that is, do not take into account the opinion of one or two odious members of the group.

The article, based on modeling consensus using the model of regular Markov chains, examines the question of how much the decision-making time according to the «consensus minus one» rule is reduced, when the position of the dominant member of the group is not taken into account.

The general conclusion that follows from the simulation results is that the rule of thumb for making decisions on the principle of «consensus minus one» has a corresponding mathematical justification. The simulation results showed that the application of the «consensus minus one» rule can reduce the time to reach consensus in the group by 76–95%, which is important for practice.

The average number of agreements hyperbolically depends on the average authoritarianism of the group members (excluding the authoritarian one), which means the possibility of delaying the agreement process at high values of the authoritarianism of the group members.