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For modeling and statistical analysis of data characterized by cyclicity (periodicity) in various areas of science are used circular or wrapped distribution models. The phase distribution function of a harmonic and phase-shift-keying signal in case additive white Gaussian noise is considered. Algorithms for modeling random phases sample of harmonic and modulated signals with specified parameters and correlation function are presented. Expressions for the phase distribution density of the phase-shift-keying signal are given. It is shown that the phase probability density function of the phase-shift-keying signal becomes multimodal. In addition, the probability density function under consideration is a periodic function, which means that the trigonometric Fourier basis can be used to decompose it into a series. In paper for the first time, analytical expressions for the coefficients of the Fourier series when decomposing the density under consideration into a harmonic basis are obtained, and the derivation of the corresponding expressions are presented. Examples of computer modeling and corresponding graphical materials of calculating Fourier coefficients of the phase probability density function for harmonic and phase-shift-keying signals are presented. A formula for the cumulative distribution function and its decomposition into a Fourier series are also obtained. Based on the representation of the phase probability density function in the form of a Fourier series, a comparison is made with other circular distributions often used in practical problems, the Mises distribution and the wrapped normal distribution. The results obtained in this work are of theoretical and practical interest for modeling and statistical analysis of signal phases in various applied problems in area radio engineering, digital communication, radar, etc. In particular, in the problems of estimating the signal-to-noise ratio, the bit error rate, as well as the reliability of demodulator solutions, i. e. soft demodulation of phase-shift-keying signals. Analytical expressions for the Fourier series coefficients can be used to estimate the empirical probability density function.

The increased potential for jamming satellite navigation signals, which provide the highest positioning accuracy for moving objects, makes the development of alternative navigation systems comparable in accuracy but autonomous extremely important. One of the most effective such approaches is the integration of inertial and optical navigation systems (NS), as they are more resistant to artificial interference. Among NS data, one can distinguish systems that use a velocity field calculation method when processing optical flow, allowing the determination of the linear and angular velocity vectors of an object in the absence of terrain maps and reference points. However, a serious drawback of this method is the high computational cost of determining the velocity field (optical flow parameters), which is difficult to implement onboard an object. In this regard, the article considers an approach that allows for constructing a tightly coupled autonomous inertial-optical navigation scheme for objects moving along known (programmed) trajectories. This scheme utilizes a navigation algorithm that is easily implemented in onboard computers due to the discovered possibility of estimating the navigation vector without preliminary calculation of optical flow parameters, as well as by utilizing functional dependencies of navigation variables arising on analytical (orthodromic) trajectories. To illustrate the generality of the solution, cases of a rigidly mounted video camera on the object and its two-degree stabilization are studied. The navigation algorithm, providing a stochastic estimate of the full vector of linear and angular motion parameters based on measurements of an integrated tightly coupled inertial-optical NS, is built on the basis of an extended Kalman filter for correlated noise of the object and the observer. A numerical experiment illustrating the effectiveness of the proposed approach is conducted.

The paper is devoted to the analysis of the proximity of the population system to dangerous boundaries. An intersection of these boundaries results in the collapse of the stable coexistence of interacting populations. As a reason of such destruction one can consider random perturbations inevitably presented in any living system. This study is carried out on the example of the well-known model of interaction between predator and prey populations, taking into account both a stabilizing factor of the competition of predators for another than prey resources, and also a destabilizing saturation factor for predators. To describe the saturation of predators, we use the second type Holling trophic function. The dynamics of the system is studied as a function of the predator saturation, and the coefficient of predator competition for resources other than prey. The paper presents a parametric description of the possible dynamic regimes of the deterministic model. Here, local and global bifurcations are studied, and areas of sustainable coexistence of populations in equilibrium and the oscillation modes are described. An interesting feature of this mathematical model, firstly considered by Bazykin, is a global bifurcation of the birth of limit cycle from the separatrix loop. We study the effects of noise on the equilibrium and oscillatory regimes of coexistence of predator and prey populations. It is shown that an increase of the intensity of random disturbances can lead to significant deformations of these regimes right up to their destruction. The aim of this work is to develop a constructive probabilistic criterion for the proximity of the population stochastic system to the dangerous boundaries. The proposed approach is based on the mathematical technique of stochastic sensitivity functions, and the method of confidence domains. In the case of a stable equilibrium, this confidence domain is an ellipse. For the stable cycle, this domain is a confidence band. The size of the confidence domain is proportional to the intensity of the noise and stochastic sensitivity of the initial deterministic attractor. A geometric criterion of the exit of the population system from sustainable coexistence mode is the intersection of the confidence domain and the corresponding separatrix of the unforced deterministic model. An effectiveness of this analytical approach is confirmed by the good agreement of theoretical estimates and results of direct numerical simulations.

The paper develops a new mathematical method of the joint signal and noise parameters determination at the Rice statistical distribution by method of moments based upon the analysis of data for the 1-st and the 3-rd raw moments of the random rician value. The explicit equations’ system have been obtained for required parameters of the signal and noise. In the limiting case of the small value of the signal-to-noise ratio the analytical formulas have been derived that allow calculating the required parameters without the necessity of solving the equations numerically. The technique having been elaborated in the paper ensures an efficient separation of the informative and noise components of the data to be analyzed without any a-priori restrictions, just based upon the processing of the results of the signal’s sampled measurements. The task is meaningful for the purposes of the rician data processing, in particular in the systems of magnetic-resonance visualization, in ultrasound visualization systems, at the optical signals’ analysis in range measuring systems, in radio location, etc. The results of the investigation have shown that the two parameter task solution of the proposed technique does not lead to the increase in demanded volume of computing resources compared with the one parameter task being solved in approximation that the second parameter of the task is known a-priori There are provided the results of the elaborated technique’s computer simulation. The results of the signal and noise parameters’ numerical calculation have confirmed the efficiency of the elaborated technique. There has been conducted the comparison of the accuracy of the sought-for parameters estimation by the technique having been developed in this paper and by the previously elaborated method of moments based upon processing the measured data for lower even moments of the signal to be analyzed.

This study develops a previously proposed Method of Computer Analogy (MCA) based on formalization of digital computer operations. The paper discusses the position of the proposed approach among other well-known methods. It is emphasized that the primary objective is to derive analytical solutions, although in some cases they have to resort to semianalytical approximations. The paper focuses on constructing solutions for systems which, for certain parameter values, demonstrate the deterministic chaos behavior, namely Lorenz, Marioka – Shimitsu and R¨ossler systems. The paper also considers obtaining solution for Van der Pol equation (reduced to a nonlinear system). The aim of the study is to construct semi-analytical solutions represented as a segment of a power series in a step size of approximating difference scheme. To prevent overflow, authors formalize rank transfer operation. The authors apply a convergent difference scheme, referred to as the “guiding” scheme, to advance to the next step of the independent variable. The resulting approximation by a sum with only a few terms provides an approximation to the solution with any accuracy in accordance with the accuracy of the governing difference scheme. The senior digits in the resulting approximation exhibit probabilistic properties that can be modeled by known distributions, thereby enabling the derivation of analytical and semi-analytical approximations. The paper presents linear approximations that are the base for a complete approximations of solutions and provide important qualitative as well as some quantitative properties of solutions of considered systems. This work describes approximations of various orders, including those that do not guarantee convergence to the exact solution, but simplify the analysis of certain properties of nonlinear equations and systems. In particular, for the Van der Pol equation, authors demonstrate that its corresponding system has a cyclic solution and provide an estimate of its scale. A modification of the MCA that has features of the Monte Carlo method makes it possible to remove recurrent sequences and construct complete solutions in simple situations. The authors mention a promising approach for representing the solution using branched continued fractions.

Safe carrying out of emergency recovery operations at emergency offshore gas condensate wells is possible when taking into account the hazardous factors that prevent anti-fontanning measures. One of such factors is the gassiness of the operation zone due to the release from the water column of a large amount of light, as compared to air, natural gas, as well as vapours of heavier components of gas condensate. To estimate the distribution of explosive concentration of petroleum product vapours in the near surface layer of the atmosphere, it is necessary to determine the characteristics of the source of the contamination. Based on the analysis of theoretical works concerning to the formation of the velocity field in the upper layer of the sea as a result of large amounts of gas coming to the surface, an analytical model is proposed to calculate the size of the area in which a significant amount of gas condensate coming to the surface is vaporised during accidents at shallow-water wells. The stationary regime of reservoir fluid flow during fountaining of offshore gas and oil wells with an underwater location of their mouths is considered. A low-parametric model of oil product evaporation from films of different thickness is constructed. It is shown that the size of the zone of intensive evaporation at shallow-water wells is determined by the volume flow of liquid fraction, its fractional composition and selected threshold for estimation of oil product vapour flow into the atmosphere. In the context of this work shallow water wells are wells with gas flow rate from 1 to 20 million cubic meters at sea depths of about 50–200 metres. In this case, the formation fluid jet from the wellhead on the seabed is transformed into a bubble plume, the stratification of the water column, typical for the summer-autumn period, does not limit the plume’s exit to the sea surface, and the velocity of bubble rise allows the gas dissolution process to be disregardded. The analysis was limited to almost calm hydrometeorological conditions. Such conditions are favourable for offshore operations, but unfavourable from the point of view of dispersion of high concentrations of oil product vapours in the near surface layer of the atmosphere. As a result of this work, an analytical dependence for an approximate assessment of the zone of intensive evaporation of gas condensate is proposed.

The article investigates the possibility of detecting traces of hazardous substances (explosives and narcotics) based on the detection of their vapors in the air. The relevance of the study stems from the need to counter terrorist threats and drug trafficking, where identifying even trace amounts of substances is critical. The focus is on mathematical modeling of the evaporation of a thin substance layer from a surface, based on molecular kinetic theory. A universal model is proposed, accounting for the physicochemical properties of substances, ambient temperature, adhesion to the surface, and the initial mass of the layer. Using the Hertz – Knudsen – Langmuir and Clausius – Clapeyron equations, analytical expressions are derived for the complete evaporation time, maximum vapor mass, and process dynamics. A dimensionless parameter, $\gamma$, is identified, determining the limiting conditions for evaporation. It is shown that substance adhesion (coefficient $\alpha$) affects the evaporation rate but not the final vapor mass. Calculations were performed for six model substances (TNT, RDX, PETN, amphetamine, cocaine, heroin) with a wide range of properties. At room temperature and a surface concentration of 100 ng/cm2, most substances evaporate completely, except for RDX, which remains on the surface at 84%. Evaporation times range from fractions of a second (amphetamine) to several hours (heroin). For low-volatility substances, the maximum mass capable of evaporating under given conditions is determined. The novelty of the work lies in the development of a universal model applicable to a broad class of hazardous substances and in identifying key parameters governing the evaporation process. The results enable the estimation of detection limits for trace substances using vapor-based methods and can be applied in the design of security systems.

In this paper we consider the problem of modeling of flow in the far regions of an axisymmetric momentumless turbulent wake that occurs when a body is flowed. The main features of the studied flow are its almost shear-free nature and its proximity to the self-similar regime, which is confirmed by the available experimental data. A semi-empirical $e-\varepsilon$ model of turbulence based on the Rodi algebraic model of Reynolds stresses is invoked to describe a flow in the far wake. Using group-theoretic analysis, similarity reduction of the invoked model of turbulence to a system of ordinary differential equations is obtained. An approximate self-similar solution of the second kind of the corresponding boundary value problem for the reduced system of equations was constructed using a method based on matching the truncations of asymptotic expansions of its solution found in neighborhoods of the boundary points. The involved approach also allowed for the extraction of an approximate value of the self-similarity exponent and other unknown parameters of the problem during the procedure of matching of the asymptotic expansion. Comparison of the approximate solution of the given boundary value problem constructed in the form of Puiseux series, which includes 16 approximating terms, with the numerical solution found using the shooting method, showed that the maximum relative error between the solutions does not exceed 2%. The approximate value of the self-similarity exponent of the problem established in this work is in a good agreement with the exact value obtained earlier by other authors as a result of the analytical solution of the corresponding nonlinear eigenvalue problem. The approximate solution was compared with the available experimental data on the axisymmetric momentumless turbulent wake obtained at the Lavrentyev Institute of Hydrodynamics of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and a satisfactory agreement was found. The approximate formulas developed in this work have practical significance and can be used for quick estimation of the values of hydrodynamic quantities in the far regions of the axisymmetric momentumless turbulent wake. The developed method for constructing approximate solutions to the boundary value problems of free turbulence can also be used in other applied fields that are not related to turbulence theory.

A mathematical model for the evolution of microbial populations during prolonged cultivation in a chemostat has been constructed. This model generalizes the sequence of the well-known mathematical models of the evolution, in which such factors of the genetic variability were taken into account as chromosomal mutations, mutations in plasmid genes, the horizontal gene transfer, the plasmid loss due to cellular division and others. Liapunov’s function for the generic model of evolution is constructed. The existence proof of bounded, positive invariant and globally attracting set in the state space of the generic mathematical model for the evolution is presented because of the application of La-Salle’s theorem. The analytic description of this set is given. Numerical methods for estimate of the number of limit sets, its location and following investigation in the mathematical models for evolution are discussed.

The possibility to simplify the integration of Langevin equation using the variation of correlation between augmentation was researched. The analytical expression for a set of numerical schemes is presented. It’s shown that asymptotic limits for squared velocity depend on step size. The region of convergence and the convergence orders were estimated. It turned out that the incorrect correlation between increments decrease the accuracy down to the level of first-order methods for schemes based on precise solution.