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Seasonal migrations and herd instinct are traditionally recognized as wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus L.) species-specific behavioral signs. These animals are forced to overcome water obstacles during the migrations. Behaviour peculiarities are considered as the result of the selection process, which has chosen among the sets of strategies, as the only evolutionarily stable one, determining the reproduction and biological survival of wild reindeer as a species. Natural processes in the Taimyr population wild reindeer are currently occurring against the background of an increase in the influence of negative factors due to the escalation of the industrial development of the Arctic. That is why the need to identify the ethological features of these animals completely arose. This paper presents the results of applying the classical methods of the theory of optimal control and differential games to the wild reindeer study of the migration patterns in overcoming water barriers, including major rivers. Based on these animals’ ethological features and behavior forms, the herd is presented as a controlled dynamic system, which presents also two classes of individuals: the leader and the rest of the herd, for which their models, describing the trajectories of their movement, are constructed. The models are based on hypotheses, which are the mathematical formalization of some animal behavior patterns. This approach made it possible to find the trajectory of the important one using the methods of the optimal control theory, and in constructing the trajectories of other individuals, apply the principle of control with a guide. Approbation of the obtained results, which can be used in the formation of a common “platform” for the adaptive behavior models systematic construction and as a reserve for the cognitive evolution models fundamental development, is numerically carried out using a model example with observational data on the Werchnyaya Taimyra River.

The article deals with the problem of a distributed system operation reliability. The system core is an open integration platform that provides interaction of varied software for modeling gas transportation. Some of them provide an access through thin clients on the cloud technology “software as a service”. Mathematical models of operation, transmission and computing are to ensure the operation of an automated dispatching system for oil and gas transportation. The paper presents a system solution based on the theory of Markov random processes and considers the stable operation stage. The stationary operation mode of the Markov chain with continuous time and discrete states is described by a system of Chapman–Kolmogorov equations with respect to the average numbers (mathematical expectations) of the objects in certain states. The objects of research are both system elements that are present in a large number – thin clients and computing modules, and individual ones – a server, a network manager (message broker). Together, they are interacting Markov random processes. The interaction is determined by the fact that the transition probabilities in one group of elements depend on the average numbers of other elements groups.

The authors propose a multi-criteria dispersion model of risk assessment for such systems (both in the broad and narrow sense, in accordance with the IEC standard). The risk is the standard deviation of estimated object parameter from its average value. The dispersion risk model makes possible to define optimality criteria and whole system functioning risks. In particular, for a thin client, the following is calculated: the loss profit risk, the total risk of losses due to non-productive element states, and the total risk of all system states losses.

Finally the paper proposes compromise schemes for solving the multi-criteria problem of choosing the optimal operation strategy based on the selected set of compromise criteria.

The second part presents numerical studies of the parameters of the lower ionosphere at altitudes of 40–90 km when heated by powerful high-frequency radio waves of various frequencies and powers. The problem statement is considered in the first part of the article. The main attention is paid to the interrelation between the energy and kinetic parameters of the disturbed $D$-region of the ionosphere in the processes that determine the absorption and transformation of the radio beam energy flux in space and time. The possibility of a significant difference in the behavior of the parameters of the disturbed region in the daytime and at nighttime, both in magnitude and in space-time distribution, is shown. In the absence of sufficiently reliable values of the rate constants for a number of important kinetic processes, numerical studies were carried out in stages with the gradual addition of individual processes and kinetic blocks corresponding at the same time to a certain physical content. It is shown that the energy thresholds for inelastic collisions of electrons with air molecules are the main ones. This approach made it possible to detect the effect of the emergence of a self-oscillating mode of changing parameters if the main channel for energy losses in inelastic processes is the most energy-intensive process — ionization. This effect may play a role in plasma studies using high-frequency inductive and capacitive discharges. The results of calculations of the ionization and optical parameters of the disturbed $D$-region for daytime conditions are presented. The electron temperature, density, emission coefficients in the visible and infrared ranges of the spectrum are obtained for various values of the power of the radio beam and its frequency in the lower ionosphere. The height-time distribution of the absorbed radiation power is calculated, which is necessary in studies of higher layers of the ionosphere. The influence on the electron temperature and on the general behavior of the parameters of energy losses by electrons on the excitation of vibrational and metastable states of molecules has been studied in detail. It is shown that under nighttime conditions, when the electron concentration begins at altitudes of about 80 km, and the concentration of heavy particles decreases by two orders of magnitude compared to the average $D$-region, large-scale gas-dynamic motion can develop with sufficient radio emission power The algorithm was developed based on the McCormack method and two-dimensional gas-dynamic calculations of the behavior of the parameters of the perturbed region were performed with some simplifications of the kinetics.

The dynamics of coupled elements’ ensembles are investigated in the context of description of spatio-temporal processes in the myocardium. Basic element is map-based model constructed by simplification and reduction of Luo-Rudy model. In particular, capabilities of the model in replication of different regimes of cardiac activity are shown, including excitable and oscillatory regimes. The dynamics of 1D and 2D lattices of coupled oscillatory elements with a random distribution of individual frequencies are considered. Effects of cluster synchronization and transition to global synchronization by increasing of coupling strength are discussed. Impulse propagation in the chain of excitable cells has been observed. Analysis of 2D lattice of excitable elements with target and spiral waves have been made. The characteristics of the spiral wave has been analyzed in depending on the individual parameters of the map and coupling strength between elements of the lattice. A study of mixed ensembles consisting of excitable and oscillatory elements with a gradient changing of the properties have been made, including the task for description of normal and pathological activity of the sinoatrial node.

Investigation of logical deterministic cellular automata models of population dynamics allows to reveal detailed individual-based mechanisms. The search for such mechanisms is important in connection with ecological problems caused by overexploitation of natural resources, environmental pollution and climate change. Classical models of population dynamics have the phenomenological nature, as they are “black boxes”. Phenomenological models fundamentally complicate research of detailed mechanisms of ecosystem functioning. We have investigated the role of fecundity and duration of resources regeneration in mechanisms of population growth using four models of ecosystem with one species. These models are logical deterministic cellular automata and are based on physical axiomatics of excitable medium with regeneration. We have modeled catastrophic death of population arising from increasing of resources regeneration duration. It has been shown that greater fecundity accelerates population extinction. The investigated mechanisms are important for understanding mechanisms of sustainability of ecosystems and biodiversity conservation. Prospects of the presented modeling approach as a method of transparent multilevel modeling of complex systems are discussed.

In Russian medicine two radiopharmaceuticals are currently used for radionuclide therapy of bone metastases: ⁸⁹Sr-chloride and ¹⁵³Sm-oxabifor. The first one has many side effects, so its use is limited. The second one is available only in clinics, its transportation to which does not take much time. Currently, the third radiopharmaceutical ¹⁸⁸Re-solerene is undergoing clinical trials. Due to the generator method of obtaining ¹⁸⁸Re, this radiopharmaceutical should become available for use in many regions of our country. Therefore, there is a need for a comparative analysis of the characteristics of these radiopharmaceuticals, including on the basis of mathematical modeling.

The article discusses the features of mathematical modeling the kinetics of osteotropic radiopharmaceutical drugs in the human body with bone metastases. Based on the four-compartment model, a complex of modeling and calculation of pharmacokinetic and dosimetric characteristics of radiopharmaceuticals for radionuclide therapy of bone metastases was developed and tested. Using clinical data, the transport constants of the model were identified and the individual characteristics of Russian radiopharmaceuticals labeled ⁸⁹Sr, 153Sm and ¹⁸⁸Re were calculated (effective half-lives, maximum activity in the compartments and the times of their achievement, absorbed doses to bone tissue and metastases, endosteal bone layer, red bone marrow, blood, kidneys and bladder). The time activity dependencies for all compartments of the model are obtained and analyzed. A comparative analysis of the pharmacokinetics and dosimetry of three radiopharmaceuticals (⁸⁹Sr-chloride, ¹⁵³Sm-oxabiphore, ¹⁸⁸Re-solerene) was carried out.

From a comparative analysis of the pharmacokinetic and dosimetric characteristics of these radiopharmaceutical drugs, it follows that the best of them for widespread use in many regions of our country should be ¹⁸⁸Re-solerene, taking into account the generator method of obtaining ¹⁸⁸Re in a hospital.

The main aim, formulated in the first part of article, is to carry out detailed numerical studies of the chemical, ionization, optical, and temperature characteristics of the lower ionosphere perturbed by powerful radio emission. The brief review of the main experimental and theoretical researches of physical phenomena occurring in the ionosphere when it is heated by high-power high-frequency radio waves from heating facilities is given. The decisive role of the $D$-region of the ionosphere in the absorption of radio beam energy is shown. A detailed analysis of kinetic processes in the disturbed $D$-region, which is the most complex in kinetic terms, has been performed. It is shown that for a complete description of the ionization-chemical and optical characteristics of the disturbed region, it is necessary to take into account more than 70 components, which, according to their main physical content, can be conveniently divided into five groups. A kinetic model is presented to describe changes in the concentrations of components interacting (the total number of reactions is 259). The system of kinetic equations was solved using a semi-implicit numerical method specially adapted to such problems. Based on the proposed structure, a software package was developed in which the algorithm scheme allowed changing both the content of individual program blocks and their number, which made it possible to conduct detailed numerical studies of individual processes in the behavior of the parameters of the perturbed region. The complete numerical algorithm is based on the two-temperature approximation, in which the main attention was paid to the calculation of the electron temperature, since its behavior is determined by inelastic kinetic processes involving electrons. The formulation of the problem is of a rather general nature and makes it possible to calculate the parameters of the disturbed ionosphere in a wide range of powers and frequencies of radio emission. Based on the developed numerical technique, it is possible to study a wide range of phenomena both in the natural and disturbed ionosphere.

This paper is dedicated to discussing methods of statistical modeling the outcomes of sport events and, particularly, matches with continuous time. We propose a simulation-based approach to predicting the outcome of a match, somehow medium between pure statistical methods and agent simulation of individual players. An example of retrospective prediction is given.

The biohydrochemical portrait of the White Sea is constructed on the CNPSi-model calculations based on long-term mean annual observations (average monthly hydrometeorological, hydrochemical and hydrobiological parameters of the marine environment) as well as on updated information on the nutrient input to the sea with the runoff of the main river tributaries (Niva, Onega, Northern Dvina, Mezen, Kem, Keret). Parameters of the marine environment are temperature, light, transparency, and biogenic load. Ecological characteristics of the sea “portrait” were calculated for nine marine areas (Kandalaksha, Onega, Dvinsky, Mezensky Bays, Solovetsky Islands, Basin, Gorlot, Voronka, Chupa Bay), these are: the concentration changes of organic and mineral compounds of biogenic elements (C, N, P, Si), the biomass of organisms of the lower trophic level (heterotrophic bacteria, diatomic phytoplankton, herbivorous and predatory zooplankton) and other ones (rates of substance concentration and organism biomass changes, internal and external substance flows, balances of individual substances and nutrients as a whole). Parameters of the marine environment state (water temperature, ratio of mineral fractions N < P) and dominant diatom phytoplankton in the sea (abundance, production, biomass, chlorophyll content a) were calculated and compared with the results of individual surveys (for 1972–1991 and 2007–2012) of the White Sea water areas. The methods for estimating the values of these parameters from observations and calculations differ, however, the calculated values of the phytoplankton state are comparable with the measurements and are similar to the data given in the literature. Therefore, according to the literature data, the annual production of diatoms in the White Sea is estimated at 1.5–3 million tons C (at a vegetation period of 180 days), and according to calculations it is ~2 and 3.5 million tons C for vegetation period of 150 and 180 days respectively.

Theoretical and experimental investigations of water vapor interaction with porous materials are carried out both at the macro level and at the micro level. At the macro level, the influence of the arrangement structure of individual pores on the processes of water vapor interaction with porous material as a continuous medium is studied. At the micro level, it is very interesting to investigate the dependence of the characteristics of the water vapor interaction with porous media on the geometry and dimensions of the individual pore.

In this paper, a study was carried out by means of mathematical modelling of the processes of water vapor interaction with suffering pore of the cylindrical type. The calculations were performed using a model of a hybrid type combining a molecular-dynamic and a macro-diffusion approach for describing water vapor interaction with an individual pore. The processes of evolution to the state of thermodynamic equilibrium of macroscopic characteristics of the system such as temperature, density, and pressure, depending on external conditions with respect to pore, were explored. The dependence of the evolution parameters on the distribution of the diffusion coefficient in the pore, obtained as a result of molecular dynamics modelling, is examined. The relevance of these studies is due to the fact that all methods and programs used for the modelling of the moisture and heat conductivity are based on the use of transport equations in a porous material as a continuous medium with known values of the transport coefficients, which are usually obtained experimentally.