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Comparison of Arctic zone RF companies with different Polar Index ratings by economic criteria with the help of machine learning tools
Computer Research and Modeling, 2020, v. 12, no. 1, pp. 201-215The paper presents a comparative analysis of the enterprises of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZ RF) on economic indicators in accordance with the rating of the Polar index. This study includes numerical data of 193 enterprises located in the AZ RF. Machine learning methods are applied, both standard, from open source, and own original methods — the method of Optimally Reliable Partitions (ORP), the method of Statistically Weighted Syndromes (SWS). Held split, indicating the maximum value of the functional quality, this study used the simplest family of different one-dimensional partition with a single boundary point, as well as a collection of different two-dimensional partition with one boundary point on each of the two combining variables. Permutation tests allow not only to evaluate the reliability of the data of the revealed regularities, but also to exclude partitions with excessive complexity from the set of the revealed regularities. Patterns connected the class number and economic indicators are revealed using the SDT method on one-dimensional indicators. The regularities which are revealed within the framework of the simplest one-dimensional model with one boundary point and with significance not worse than p < 0.001 are also presented in the given study. The so-called sliding control method was used for reliable evaluation of such diagnostic ability. As a result of these studies, a set of methods that had sufficient effectiveness was identified. The collective method based on the results of several machine learning methods showed the high importance of economic indicators for the division of enterprises in accordance with the rating of the Polar index. Our study proved and showed that those companies that entered the top Rating of the Polar index are generally recognized by financial indicators among all companies in the Arctic Zone. However it would be useful to supplement the list of indicators with ecological and social criteria.
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Stochastic optimization in digital pre-distortion of the signal
Computer Research and Modeling, 2022, v. 14, no. 2, pp. 399-416In this paper, we test the performance of some modern stochastic optimization methods and practices with respect to the digital pre-distortion problem, which is a valuable part of processing signal on base stations providing wireless communication. In the first part of our study, we focus on the search for the best performing method and its proper modifications. In the second part, we propose the new, quasi-online, testing framework that allows us to fit our modeling results with the behavior of real-life DPD prototype, retest some selected of practices considered in the previous section and approve the advantages of the method appearing to be the best under real-life conditions. For the used model, the maximum achieved improvement in depth is 7% in the standard regime and 5% in the online regime (metric itself is of logarithmic scale). We also achieve a halving of the working time preserving 3% and 6% improvement in depth for the standard and online regime, respectively. All comparisons are made to the Adam method, which was highlighted as the best stochastic method for DPD problem in [Pasechnyuk et al., 2021], and to the Adamax method, which is the best in the proposed online regime.
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Assessing the impact of deposit benchmark interest rate on banking loan dynamics
Computer Research and Modeling, 2024, v. 16, no. 4, pp. 1023-1032Deposit benchmark interest rates are a policy implemented by banking regulators to calculate the interest rates offered to depositors, maintaining equitable and competitive rates within the financial industry. It functions as a benchmark for determining the pricing of different banking products, expenses, and financial choices. The benchmark rate will have a direct impact on the amount of money deposited, which in turn will determine the amount of money available for lending.We are motivated to analyze the influence of deposit benchmark interest rates on the dynamics of banking loans. This study examines the issue using a difference equation of banking loans. In this process, the decision on the loan amount in the next period is influenced by both the present loan volume and the information on its marginal profit. An analysis is made of the loan equilibrium point and its stability. We also analyze the bifurcations that arise in the model. To ensure a stable banking loan, it is necessary to set the benchmark rate higher than the flip value and lower than the transcritical bifurcation values. The confirmation of this result is supported by the bifurcation diagram and its associated Lyapunov exponent. Insufficient deposit benchmark interest rates might lead to chaotic dynamics in banking lending. Additionally, a bifurcation diagram with two parameters is also shown. We do numerical sensitivity analysis by examining contour plots of the stability requirements, which vary with the deposit benchmark interest rate and other parameters. In addition, we examine a nonstandard difference approach for the previous model, assess its stability, and make a comparison with the standard model. The outcome of our study can provide valuable insights to the banking regulator in making informed decisions regarding deposit benchmark interest rates, taking into account several other banking factors.
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Iterative decomposition methods in modelling the development of oligopolistic markets
Computer Research and Modeling, 2025, v. 17, no. 6, pp. 1237-1256One of the principles of forming a competitive market environment is to create conditions for economic agents to implement Nash – Cournot optimal strategies. With the standard approach to determining Nash – Cournot optimal market strategies, economic agents must have complete information about the indicators and dynamic characteristics of all market participants. Which is not true.
In this regard, to find Nash – Cournot optimal solutions in dynamic models, it is necessary to have a coordinator who has complete information about the participants. However, in the case of a large number of game participants, even if the coordinator has the necessary information, computational difficulties arise associated with the need to solve a large number of coupled equations (in the case of linear dynamic games — Riccati matrix equations).
In this regard, there is a need to decompose the general problem of determining optimal strategies for market participants into private (local) problems. Approaches based on the iterative decomposition of coupled matrix Riccati equations and the solution of local Riccati equations were studied for linear dynamic games with a quadratic criterion. This article considers a simpler approach to the iterative determination of the Nash – Cournot equilibrium in an oligopoly, by decomposition using operational calculus (operator method).
The proposed approach is based on the following procedure. A virtual coordinator, which has information about the parameters of the inverse demand function, forms prices for the prospective period. Oligopolists, given fixed price dynamics, determine their strategies in accordance with a slightly modified optimality criterion. The optimal volumes of production of the oligopolists are sent to the coordinator, who, based on the iterative algorithm, adjusts the price dynamics at the previous step.
The proposed procedure is illustrated by the example of a static and dynamic model of rational behavior of oligopoly participants who maximize the net present value (NPV). Using the methods of operational calculus (and in particular, the inverse Z-transformation), conditions are found under which the iterative procedure leads to equilibrium levels of price and production volumes in the case of linear dynamic games with both quadratic and nonlinear (concave) optimization criteria.
The approach considered is used in relation to examples of duopoly, triopoly, duopoly on the market with a differentiated product, duopoly with interacting oligopolists with a linear inverse demand function. Comparison of the results of calculating the dynamics of price and production volumes of oligopolists for the considered examples based on coupled equations of the matrix Riccati equations in Matlab (in the table — Riccati), as well as in accordance with the proposed iterative method in the widely available Excel system shows their practical identity.
In addition, the application of the proposed iterative procedure is illustrated by the example of a duopoly with a nonlinear demand function.
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Digital modeling geometrical and macrorough parameters of a highway
Computer Research and Modeling, 2012, v. 4, no. 4, pp. 837-844Views (last year): 1. Citations: 1 (RSCI).Original representation of statistical digital model of measurement of a macroroughness on a local site (to 15) consisting of determined (bias), correlated (standard periodic making and periodic deviations from flatness) and actually casual making (values of a macroroughness) Is offered.
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Modeling consensus building in conditions of dominance in a social group
Computer Research and Modeling, 2021, v. 13, no. 5, pp. 1067-1078In many social groups, for example, in technical committees for standardization, at the international, regional and national levels, in European communities, managers of ecovillages, social movements (occupy), international organizations, decision-making is based on the consensus of the group members. Instead of voting, where the majority wins over the minority, consensus allows for a solution that each member of the group supports, or at least considers acceptable. This approach ensures that all group members’ opinions, ideas and needs are taken into account. At the same time, it is noted that reaching consensus takes a long time, since it is necessary to ensure agreement within the group, regardless of its size. It was shown that in some situations the number of iterations (agreements, negotiations) is very significant. Moreover, in the decision-making process, there is always a risk of blocking the decision by the minority in the group, which not only delays the decisionmaking time, but makes it impossible. Typically, such a minority is one or two odious people in the group. At the same time, such a member of the group tries to dominate in the discussion, always remaining in his opinion, ignoring the position of other colleagues. This leads to a delay in the decision-making process, on the one hand, and a deterioration in the quality of consensus, on the other, since only the opinion of the dominant member of the group has to be taken into account. To overcome the crisis in this situation, it was proposed to make a decision on the principle of «consensus minus one» or «consensus minus two», that is, do not take into account the opinion of one or two odious members of the group.
The article, based on modeling consensus using the model of regular Markov chains, examines the question of how much the decision-making time according to the «consensus minus one» rule is reduced, when the position of the dominant member of the group is not taken into account.
The general conclusion that follows from the simulation results is that the rule of thumb for making decisions on the principle of «consensus minus one» has a corresponding mathematical justification. The simulation results showed that the application of the «consensus minus one» rule can reduce the time to reach consensus in the group by 76–95%, which is important for practice.
The average number of agreements hyperbolically depends on the average authoritarianism of the group members (excluding the authoritarian one), which means the possibility of delaying the agreement process at high values of the authoritarianism of the group members.
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Application of gradient optimization methods to solve the Cauchy problem for the Helmholtz equation
Computer Research and Modeling, 2022, v. 14, no. 2, pp. 417-444The article is devoted to studying the application of convex optimization methods to solve the Cauchy problem for the Helmholtz equation, which is ill-posed since the equation belongs to the elliptic type. The Cauchy problem is formulated as an inverse problem and is reduced to a convex optimization problem in a Hilbert space. The functional to be optimized and its gradient are calculated using the solution of boundary value problems, which, in turn, are well-posed and can be approximately solved by standard numerical methods, such as finite-difference schemes and Fourier series expansions. The convergence of the applied fast gradient method and the quality of the solution obtained in this way are experimentally investigated. The experiment shows that the accelerated gradient method — the Similar Triangle Method — converges faster than the non-accelerated method. Theorems on the computational complexity of the resulting algorithms are formulated and proved. It is found that Fourier’s series expansions are better than finite-difference schemes in terms of the speed of calculations and improve the quality of the solution obtained. An attempt was made to use restarts of the Similar Triangle Method after halving the residual of the functional. In this case, the convergence does not improve, which confirms the absence of strong convexity. The experiments show that the inaccuracy of the calculations is more adequately described by the additive concept of the noise in the first-order oracle. This factor limits the achievable quality of the solution, but the error does not accumulate. According to the results obtained, the use of accelerated gradient optimization methods can be the way to solve inverse problems effectively.
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Valuation of machines at the random process of their degradation and premature sales
Computer Research and Modeling, 2024, v. 16, no. 3, pp. 797-815The model of the process of using machinery and equipment is considered, which takes into account the probabilistic nature of the process of their operation and sale. It takes into account the possibility of random hidden failures, after which the condition of the machine deteriorates abruptly, as well as the randomly arising need for premature (before the end of its service life) sale of the machine, which requires, generally speaking, random time. The model is focused on assessing the market value and service life of machines in accordance with International Valuation Standards. Strictly speaking, the market value of a used machine depends on its technical condition, but in practice, appraisers only take into account its age, since generally accepted measures of the technical condition of machines do not yet exist. As a result, the market value of a used machine is assumed to be equal to the average market value of similar machines of the corresponding age. For these purposes, appraisers use coefficients that reflect the influence of the age of machines on their market value. Such coefficients are not always justified and do not take into account either the degradation of the machine or the probabilistic nature of the process of its use. The proposed model is based on the anticipation of benefits principle. In it, we characterize the state of the machine by the intensity of the benefits it brings. The machine is subjected to a complex Poisson failure process, and after failure its condition abruptly worsens and may even reach its limit. Situations also arise that preclude further use of the machine by its owner. In such situations, the owner puts the machine up for sale before the end of its service life (prematurely), and the sale requires a random timing. The model allows us to take into account the influence of such situations and construct an analytical relationship linking the market value of a machine with its condition, and calculate the average coefficients of change in the market value of machines with age. At the same time, it is also possible to take into account the influence of inflation and the scrap cost of the machine. We have found that the rate of prematurely sales has a significant impact on the cost of new and used machines. The model also allows us to take into account the influence of inflation and the scrap value of the machine. We have found that the rate of premature sales has a significant impact on the service life and market value of new and used machines. At the same time, the dependence of the market value of machines on age is largely determined by the coefficient of variation of the service life of the machines. The results obtained allow us to obtain more reasonable estimates of the market value of machines, including for the purposes of the system of national accounts.
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Statistically fair price for the European call options according to the discreet mean/variance model
Computer Research and Modeling, 2014, v. 6, no. 5, pp. 861-874Views (last year): 1.We consider a portfolio with call option and the corresponding underlying asset under the standard assumption that stock-market price represents a random variable with lognormal distribution. Minimizing the variance hedging risk of the portfolio on the date of maturity of the call option we find a fraction of the asset per unit call option. As a direct consequence we derive the statistically fair lookback call option price in explicit form. In contrast to the famous Black–Scholes theory, any portfolio cannot be regarded as risk-free because no additional transactions are supposed to be conducted over the life of the contract, but the sequence of independent portfolios will reduce risk to zero asymptotically. This property is illustrated in the experimental section using a dataset of daily stock prices of 37 leading US-based companies for the period from April 2006 to January 2013.
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Application of correlation adaptometry technique to sports and biomedical research
Computer Research and Modeling, 2017, v. 9, no. 2, pp. 345-354Views (last year): 10.The paper outlines the approaches to mathematical modeling correlation adaptometry techniques widely used in biology and medicine. The analysis is based on models employed in descriptions of structured biological systems. It is assumed that the distribution density of the biological population numbers satisfies the equation of Kolmogorov-Fokker-Planck. Using this technique evaluated the effectiveness of treatment of patients with obesity. All patients depending on the obesity degree and the comorbidity nature were divided into three groups. Shows a decrease in weight of the correlation graph computed from the measured in the patients of the indicators that characterizes the effectiveness of the treatment for all studied groups. This technique was also used to assess the intensity of the training loads in academic rowing three age groups. It was shown that with the highest voltage worked with athletes for youth group. Also, using the technique of correlation adaptometry evaluated the effectiveness of the treatment of hormone replacement therapy in women. All the patients depending on the assigned drug were divided into four groups. In the standard analysis of the dynamics of mean values of indicators, it was shown that in the course of the treatment were observed normalization of the averages for all groups of patients. However, using the technique of correlation adaptometry it was found that during the first six months the weight of the correlation graph was decreasing and during the second six months the weight increased for all study groups. This indicates the excessive length of the annual course of hormone replacement therapy and the practicality of transition to a semiannual rate.
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